I’m a hiring manager. My company did a round of contractor layoffs in 2023 and made a smaller number of FTE hires backfills.
My advice is to hang in there. Often we have 3 strong candidates per open position. The people we reject aren’t getting rejected because they aren’t a good fit or lack skills - it’s just that someone else was a little better. If I had the budget I’d hire all the great people I have the privilege of interviewing.
For what it’s worth I think the industry is starting to run a little too lean. Teams are getting pushed to their limit, there’s no “slack” left for additional output. Contrary to the buzz you see on sites like HN, in the real world AI coding tools are completely underwhelming. The pendulum is losing momentum and I suspect orgs will realize they either need to grow their headcount or downsize their product offerings - meanwhile they’re letting certain products languish because they don’t have the headcount to work on it. And risk appetite for entering new markets is waaay down. The business culture is becoming more conservative (not politically/culturally, but rather in terms of its approach to operations and product development)
This means more opportunities for entrepreneurs and new companies soon. “What if big tech company X just copies you?” — oh you think they’re going to get budget to do that? You think they’re going to hire 50 devs to just copy your random startup? In THIS market? With THIS amount of Wall street scrutiny against quixotic projects? Hah! If you see a gap build it and fill it. The big dogs are all tied up in meetings with finance trying to save their datadog subscription from the chopping block - they won’t notice you until it’s too late.