Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

news.ycombinator.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 104 posts

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#61

Post by maerF0x0 »

marcinzm wrote: post #32
trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

The US sent something like $100 billion to Ukraine last year which comes out to a grand total of 1.5% of the US budget and 0.4% of the US GDP. Large in absolute terms but not relative terms. That is also about how much the US spent on Afghanistan per year and that was sustained for over 20 years.

Except that it's $100Bn more "printed" and against a high interest backdrop.

The fed had to create that $100Bn to loan it to the US govt. The US government has to pay going interest rates for debt.

It's a very very expensive choice for something that is not our war.

It's something like $1200 per tax payer[1]. I do not support us funding Ukraine's war to the tune of $1200, personally.

[1] - https://taxfoundation.org/publications/latest-federal-income... ~50% of people even work, and 99% of the taxes paid are by the top 50% of earners. ~350M ppl in US --> $100Bn / (350M ppl * 50% work * 50% pay) ~= $1200

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#62

Post by okennedy »

cuttysnark wrote: post #58
rprospero wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi! I’m a senior engineer getting $53k in annual salary. Everyone in my department is making the same, my boss included (government job, so I know the salaries). Also, it’s a government job, so obviously zero stock. Anyway, just letting you know that we’re out here.

> Everyone in my department is making the same, my boss included I'm curious—how does this work? More responsibility ought to mean more compensation—what incentive is there to be a boss if you'll make the same as your reports?

Differing skillsets? Managing people doesn't have to mean more responsibility. Some people are good at doing, others are good at the bureaucracy game and buffering for the doers. Both are critical, and in a good org, both have different, but not necessarily differing scales of responsibility.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#63

Post by rprospero »

cuttysnark wrote: post #58
rprospero wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi! I’m a senior engineer getting $53k in annual salary. Everyone in my department is making the same, my boss included (government job, so I know the salaries). Also, it’s a government job, so obviously zero stock. Anyway, just letting you know that we’re out here.

> Everyone in my department is making the same, my boss included I'm curious—how does this work? More responsibility ought to mean more compensation—what incentive is there to be a boss if you'll make the same as your reports?

I am at the max salary band for my position. His position can admit a higher salary band. After a few years, he’ll have a track record proving his competence in the new position and can apply to be raised to a higher band.

I believe the theory is to avoid the Peter principle. If someone is promoted into a position for which they are not competent, then they can be transferred back to their old position without lowering their salary (since it’s been the same salary the whole time). I also think there’s some stuff about passion, grit, and drive that’s been imported from the private sector.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#64

Post by idkyall »

cornholio wrote: post #45
benreesman wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have less intuition for how equity packages are working because that tends to happen a little later in the conversation at least in my geography and at my tenure. Broadly people seem to be signaling looser equity purse strings to go along with massively tighter cash purse strings YoY. I’m sort of L7/L8 with an ML infra focus in California and total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k and now people are seeming t…

> total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k That was probably an unsustainable bubble on the long run, inflation adjusted, unless you hold exceptionally rare skills that can't be replicated or taught. It was simply the result of a severely unbalanced market. I'm sure some people still make 400k+, but I'm also sure their performance and contribution is scrutinized quarterly and they are the first on the chopping bl…

I think it's hard to comment because this depends on the HCOL/LCOL area, the company and the level very wildly. I believe Netflix Seniors make that level of cash comp, and I'm sure staff/principal+ at a large tech company in the bay area or HCOL could push 300k in salary.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#65

Post by lesuorac »

marcinzm wrote: post #32
trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

The US sent something like $100 billion to Ukraine last year which comes out to a grand total of 1.5% of the US budget and 0.4% of the US GDP. Large in absolute terms but not relative terms. That is also about how much the US spent on Afghanistan per year and that was sustained for over 20 years.

I mean typically the US doesn't airmail dollars to the warzones.

Typically it's a numerical value for the goods & services provided. This means the USG is paying Americans to do stuff for Ukraine which increases demand for US stuff which helps the US economy.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#66

Post by lesuorac »

obscurette wrote: post #31
trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

As someone living nearby and having relatives in Russia ... I don't see a way Russia is able to fight years. They just don't have resources for that. The war in Donbas since 2014 was a tiny and very different one compared to the war since 2022. This doesn't mean that Ukraine will stop to get resources from West if war is over though. Ukraine needs a lot of help years and even decades after the war is over.

Russia has enough foreign reserves [1] to fight for decades [2]. An unfortunate fact but if they're willing to fight until they run out of money its going to be a while.

[1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1188294/monthly-foreign-....

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_budget_of_Russia#2020-...

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#67

Post by cmrdporcupine »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #61
marcinzm wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US sent something like $100 billion to Ukraine last year which comes out to a grand total of 1.5% of the US budget and 0.4% of the US GDP. Large in absolute terms but not relative terms. That is also about how much the US spent on Afghanistan per year and that was sustained for over 20 years.

Except that it's $100Bn more "printed" and against a high interest backdrop. The fed had to create that $100Bn to loan it to the US govt. The US government has to pay going interest rates for debt. It's a very very expensive choice for something that is not our war. It's something like $1200 per tax payer[1]. I do not support us funding Ukraine's war to the tune of $1200, personally. [1] - https://taxfoundation.org/p…

In cold hard political-economic terms this war will pay off for the US far more than the Afghan or Iraq wars did. It's dark and imperialistic, but a weakened Russia is a stronger US. They're an economic competitor (petroleum exporter) of both the US and many of its G7 partners, as well as a geo-political rival and competitor for control of post-colonial markets. That was made clear by their (Russian) interventions in Syria, especially. US elites are expecting to see a payoff from funding a war in Ukraine by weakening Russia.

And at the same time European elites are clearly rattled and threatened by a war on their borders, so are seeking enhanced security. And I'm sure quite tempted by the prospects of integrating Ukraine's (cheap) labour force and agriculture exports into the European market & trade area.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#68

Post by cmrdporcupine »

epolanski wrote: post #51
obscurette wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone living nearby and having relatives in Russia ... I don't see a way Russia is able to fight years. They just don't have resources for that. The war in Donbas since 2014 was a tiny and very different one compared to the war since 2022. This doesn't mean that Ukraine will stop to get resources from West if war is over though. Ukraine needs a lot of help years and even decades after the war is over.

> They just don't have resources for that. They have more than Ukraine which is entirely dependent on foreign aid and that's what matters.

As I said above, the current US regime at least has an economic interest in throttling the current Russian regime's economic and political prospects.

Remember the US these days is an energy exporter. Russia is a competitor in this market. The intensification of hostilities with Russia in the 2010s coincide with the US switching from a net importer of energy to one that is beginning to export more than it uses: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2019.01.29/main.png

But more importantly, Russia is a rival in control of the middle east and Africa as well.

And bonus for the G7 as well if the US and Canada (whose energy companies are on the whole dominated by US capital anyways) can get a significant market for liquified natural gas and other export energy products into Europe now that the trade relationship with Russia is disrupted.

It is a bit unclear how a Republican administration would behave if it replaced Biden's. It depends a lot on which sector has the ear/control of the president at that point. Trump's administration seemed to be tangled up in the Russian energy sector in a way that made it conflicted (e.g. Rex Tillerson as secretary of state, etc.)

It's all a bit cynical. But at the same time, Ukraine also needs to be defended on principle from an aggressive neighbour.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#69

Post by reportgunner »

whynotminot wrote: post #44
phreeza wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? If anything, they will become instantly more productive, so they may even be more in demand?

I think that's the optimistic take for the future of AI programming. Something like, hire a junior, give them an orientation on using the company AI code assistant. Let them become more productive by having that "AI senior" answer their questions and guide them through their work. Pull Requests still approved by your real senior and mid-level engineers (who also have help from the AI). But my fear is that what actual…

This is why I think AI won't replace coders or have big impact - juniors can't verify it's validity and seniors don't need it.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#70

Post by cmrdporcupine »

obscurette wrote: post #31
trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

As someone living nearby and having relatives in Russia ... I don't see a way Russia is able to fight years. They just don't have resources for that. The war in Donbas since 2014 was a tiny and very different one compared to the war since 2022. This doesn't mean that Ukraine will stop to get resources from West if war is over though. Ukraine needs a lot of help years and even decades after the war is over.

As long as the political-economic strategic situation remains the same, the west as a whole has intrinsic interest in making sure Russia does not succeed in taking territory from Ukraine and forcing it to submit back into Russia's economic control.

The question is how long Ukrainian morale holds up and how long they can keep recruiting and training troops.

Also Turkey's recent moves don't bode well for Putin's regime. It's clearly asserting itself as the power in the Black Sea and likely soon in and around Syria and the Caucasus as well, attempting to displace Russian power in the regions where it has been dominant. It's likely we will soon see Turkish navy escorting Ukrainian grain out of the Black Sea without Russia's agreement or cooperation. Whatever Erdogan and Zelensky discussed in private last week, it's culminated in some significant shifts that are very negative for both Putin and Assad.

Post reply on HN