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Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

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61–70 of 94 posts

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#61

That some orgs overhired is not in question. What is _insane_ to me is that everyone being let go seems to be an engineer, while the DEI teams remain untouched. That section of the office sure seems to have a lot of free time, between shaming the rest of the company. Shows the power hierarchy I suppose. Wild world.

Engineers are probably a lot more expensive than a DEI employee

Probably a little more useful though, even on a per-dollar basis

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#62
My own theory is that the era of Big Tech firms like Google, etc., is passing or at least evolving. Companies are gaining confidence that they have answers for their needs and don't necessarily need input from those firms. So for the mundane line-of-business segment, companies want to try their own hand. I personally think there will still be a need for moderate sized Systems Houses that can deliver bespoke solutions weaving together state of the art software and hardware. In terms of jobs, I think they will be dispersed and not hoarded by the big tech firms going forward. All of this is just an opinion.

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#63
post #22

Does someone know a site where I can see the total number of employers of all major tech companies in time? I'm curious to see the difference between today and pre-covid, and also look for a correlation between headcount and market capitalization.

See above CNBC link.

Thanks, saw it. Just incredible that most of them were increasing (double-digit y/y) headcount in the last 12 years.

All these post and articles should also mention what is the % of laid off people not only the absolute value, it's misleading.

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#64
First, “companies” don’t decide to layoff staff - people do (for now). So think about the people involved if you’re legitimately interested in how/why it happens.

Imagine for a moment you are the CEO and someone who may ultimately decide your pay or tenure asks “The future looks uncertain, what do you think?”. You’re very likely to think “I have no idea. I’ll ask the folks working for me.” and you do. You may get a mix of answers, a minority will be thoughtful but the majority will reflect the natural human tendency for self preservation, thinking along the lines of “Since the question was asked, it means I need to confirm the unstated assumption”, and be the one safe thing to say “We should cut spending”.

It’s just people being people.

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#65
Just check stock market history (eg Nasdaq) [0] (select the entire length). Even though tech experienced a long exponential market value rise after the dot com crash (2000) in the last few years (2019+) there was a super-exponential event (bubble) of even faster rise.

This was even reinforced in the pandemic. Instead of worrying about all the fragilities exposed in society, the streched supply chains etc, this dramatic event was even turned into a tech positive (remote working etc). The tech sector was the only official speculative game in town (unofficially we also had crypto bubble) and management could get away with everything.

What happened since is not so much a recession but the invasion of Ukraine and the further disruption of global trade, inflation, simmering geopolitical tensions, acceptance of climate risk etc. Basically the virtual reality of tech got discounted in markets and people focus now on formerly unfashionable bricks and mortars.

So nothing personal or technically relevant, just stock prices, executive remuneration and incentives.

[0] https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp?mod=market-...

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#66
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They all bet that this was a permanent 5-year jump-ahead. They were wrong This is the part that really needs explanation. How was every CEO of every major tech company wrong? Why aren't we having a big tech CEO layoff for massive wrongness? It certainly feels like there's a lot of groupthink here in any case. The Google severance looks pretty generous? That plus the last couple years of overhiring is going to end u…

The most favorable explanation is that they didn't really think it would be permanent. They just needed the headcount at the time, and they don't need it anymore. The rest is just marketing spin to not make it seem so bad. Now if they all balloon back up to the same headcount in the next year, but with lower salaries, then we will see if the real motive was to lower salaries. Someone had posted on another thread that…

I think the main reason for the layoffs is AI accelerating jobs. As Sam Altman stated, programmers in the future will be much more productive than programmers today.

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#67
post #49
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They all bet that this was a permanent 5-year jump-ahead. They were wrong This is the part that really needs explanation. How was every CEO of every major tech company wrong? Why aren't we having a big tech CEO layoff for massive wrongness? It certainly feels like there's a lot of groupthink here in any case. The Google severance looks pretty generous? That plus the last couple years of overhiring is going to end u…

Two words. Record profits. https://fortune.com/2022/03/31/us-companies-record-profits-2... . Everyone saw an opportunity to make MORE money during the pandemic, and instead of focusing on long term health, focused on quarterly profits. This lead to massive expansion. The second answer is that these companies have mass layoffs every year. Are these really that abnormal, given the context of their mass hiring's the yea…

Disaster Capitalism

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#68
post #17
post #8

Amazon, Shopify, Wayfair, Google, Meta: all of these companies make money because e-commerce exists. The higher the proportion of all sales taking place on e-commerce, the more valuable the companies are. For Google and Meta, it's the advertising portion, but it's still impactful. If we track online sales as a proportion of all sales over the last 20 years, there's a pretty stable trend of increase. Then COVID hit, l…

> They all bet that this was a permanent 5-year jump-ahead. They were wrong This is the part that really needs explanation. How was every CEO of every major tech company wrong? Why aren't we having a big tech CEO layoff for massive wrongness? It certainly feels like there's a lot of groupthink here in any case. The Google severance looks pretty generous? That plus the last couple years of overhiring is going to end u…

>Why aren't we having a big tech CEO layoff for massive wrongness?

The only job of the board of directors is to decide when to fire the CEO. (Waiting for Tesla's board to do their job..., but I digress)

Sure, capital is represented on the board, but what about labor? No representation, so a round of layoffs is not going to be a reason for this to happen.

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#69
post #17
post #8

Amazon, Shopify, Wayfair, Google, Meta: all of these companies make money because e-commerce exists. The higher the proportion of all sales taking place on e-commerce, the more valuable the companies are. For Google and Meta, it's the advertising portion, but it's still impactful. If we track online sales as a proportion of all sales over the last 20 years, there's a pretty stable trend of increase. Then COVID hit, l…

> They all bet that this was a permanent 5-year jump-ahead. They were wrong This is the part that really needs explanation. How was every CEO of every major tech company wrong? Why aren't we having a big tech CEO layoff for massive wrongness? It certainly feels like there's a lot of groupthink here in any case. The Google severance looks pretty generous? That plus the last couple years of overhiring is going to end u…

Something I'd like to see is if large, profitable, private tech companies are also doing layoffs.

Like, it's reasonable for unprofitable companies to do layoffs. I can see investor pressure causing something similar in large public companies like Google and Amazon, even if they're profitable. But profitable private companies should be snapping up all the best talent now.

Re: Ask HN: Why are big tech companies having mass layoffs?

#70
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big public companies need an excuse to fire as many people as they would "naturally" want to fire given 1. just how many people they hire, 2. how often those people turn out to be duds, and 3. how often they pivot strategies internally that no longer necessitate even better-performing people. They can't normally fire as many people as they want to fire, without looking bad / "appearing weak" and therefore losing stoc…

And yet, I'm looking at a team that was affected by layoffs where solid (or even high) performers were fired while also having been in meetings this week to discuss low performers who weren't fired. "Getting rid of duds" is clearly not what is happening, at least at Google.

Getting rid of high-earners is more correct. Among the highest earners, they pick the bottom 10% of the performers. Or do some MBA-ish cost/productivity calculations and lay off based on some (probably nonsensical, for programmers) "valuation".
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