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Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

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61–70 of 106 posts

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#61

A related question: can Southwest ever fully recover from this? Their reputation had taken such a hit that many loyal customers will hesitate to fly with them again, and even more fairweather customers will permanently cross Southwest off their list of carriers to consider flying with. Their stock price is only down ~10% since the meltdown, which seems extremely optimistic to me.

> Their reputation had taken such a hit that many loyal customers will hesitate to fly with them again

zero damage. This will all be forgotten in a matter of weeks. ppl will continue flying with whoever has the best rates.

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#62

A related question: can Southwest ever fully recover from this? Their reputation had taken such a hit that many loyal customers will hesitate to fly with them again, and even more fairweather customers will permanently cross Southwest off their list of carriers to consider flying with. Their stock price is only down ~10% since the meltdown, which seems extremely optimistic to me.

Yes. I'm a very frequent flyer, and used to be far more frequent. No one, and I mean no one, flys southwest because it's their choice. "Southwest is the greyhound of the sky" is a well known phrase. You fly southwest because it's slightly better than being cramped on 3 legs of a 50-60 seat commuter jet. Your home airport dictates which airline you take. Unless another airline steps up and takes some of the routes & p…

> "Southwest is the greyhound of the sky" is a well known phrase.

This had to be before spirit and frontier came onto the scene.

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#63
post #16

How could a CEO let this persist for more than an hour? Is there nobody with the leaderships skills to just give everyone free flights and promise everything will be sorted while having people record who worked and who flew and what services were used as best they can? The software failed, just Jerry-rig something up to get people where they need to be, let the accountants and programmers clear up the mess after the…

It's so simple, why didn't this entire company full of experienced specialists just do the random idea I just came up with without thinking about it at all?

It's almost as simple as crapping on an idea without saying why the idea is a bad one, which I personally find to be a much worse failure and an indicator of someone who likes to tear down without making suggestions.

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#64
post #15

From what I know... Not affiliated at all with the airline industry, but I fly a lot and tend to nerd out on this stuff... Their crew (and flight) scheduling software functions in a manner where it more or less simulates a "perfect" day of operations. Airplanes take off on time, land, and continue on. If anything disrupts this simulation, crew members had to call in and talk to someone to update the computer system t…

In this age of more or less fully network connected devices, this kind of a setup seems archaic in the extreme, probably likely to be some hangover from the 70s or 80s.

I have a relative that worked in the IT department at SW. Can't remember the details but he said some main parts of their scheduling software were written in the 60's (or maybe even 50's). And it is still running.

Edit: Ok reading comments jogged my memory. It was something to do with the 'Sabre' system which was from the 1950's.

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#66
Everyone here is at least a little misinformed regarding their software and it's simulation abilities. They have control systems with the data they need, and this data is fed into the flight scheduling & monitoring UI. Their tech works, it just gets bashed on because it's different than a lot of other airlines. Used properly it can account for these things.

What causes things like this is overbooking. Overbooking happens in more than just butts in seats. If you're not going to have enough ground crew to handle your SLA on flights, flights should be preemptively cancelled to keep them under that SLA. Airlines keep that SLA as low as safety permits. The max is set by the FAA at 3 hours for domestic flights and 4 hours for international flights (both ends).

Southwest's software is doing it's job, it has adjustable tolerances. It will even take into account weather conditions reducing ground crew therefore raising SLA. But, the effect of the weather conditions on the ground crew is also adjustable by humans. As a matter of fact, while one would think it would just reference historical data, that's not exactly true. It references predictive models that are adjusted by experienced individuals. Those individuals can be ordered to adjust the parameters outside their honest assessment to allow for steps at the beginning of the process to operate smoothly.

Weather prediction has a horizon. Southwest allowed excess bookings beyond that horizon, or they allowed excess last minute bookings. This weather event was massive and one-sided, yes, but it was also completely predictable. A human made the decision to widen the guardrails. There aren't a ton of people allowed to do that, I can think of maybe 3.

Disclosure: I wrote software for SWA many years ago. Nothing I've said here is privileged, in fact most airlines operate this exact way.

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#67
post #63
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's so simple, why didn't this entire company full of experienced specialists just do the random idea I just came up with without thinking about it at all?

It's almost as simple as crapping on an idea without saying why the idea is a bad one, which I personally find to be a much worse failure and an indicator of someone who likes to tear down without making suggestions.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#68
post #29
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "I used to work for a large company trying to fill the void [huge gap in the market for good aviation scheduling software], and our software was damn good too. SW was one of the airlines interested, we would demo it exactly like the scenario today, but it was "too expensive" and they stayed on their homebuilt stuff." This is a common situation in any industry. A company has a solution it self-developed in its infan…

It can be cost-driven, but it's just as likely to be complexity-gated (w/ cost frequently being implementation driven and a proxy for complexity). The cost comes from actually unwinding a gnarly legacy system (that may be less than well understood) and making the successor system work. Also, Gall's law has entered the chat: A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that work…

For folks interested in legacy software systems (and managing the teams managing these systems), I highly recommend Marianne Bellotti's "Kill It with Fire: Manage Aging Computer Systems (and Future Proof Modern Ones)". The author worked at the United States Digital Service.

https://nostarch.com/kill-it-fire

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#69
post #46
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the first time I’ve ever seen the plane-boarding hunger games of sit-where-you-like referred to as a customer-friendly thing.

People either love it or hate it. Personally, having flown with them for business for 5 or so years, I generally preferred it to assigned seating.

Yes, I like it when flying alone. On other airlines you get to choose where your seat is at. On Southwest you get to choose who you sit beside.

Re: Ask HN: What's Happening at Southwest?

#70
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. For me they had brand prominence because of various customer friendly things like bags fly free, sit where you want, etc. It will take a mountain of good reports from other people over a significant period of time for me to want to fly with them.

This is the first time I’ve ever seen the plane-boarding hunger games of sit-where-you-like referred to as a customer-friendly thing.

I'll add another data point of strongly preferring it. Check in early so you can board early so you can get a good seat. I'm fairly punctual and this system rewards me for that without needing to open my wallet, so I'm a fan.

That said I agree with the grandparent comment about avoiding them for the foreseeable future based on this fiasco. Hopefully they get it together at some point.

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