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Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#61

Post by jhoelzel »

arcturus17 wrote: post #59
jhoelzel wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes. Everybody tends to think their business requirements are very unique. In reality not so much. Also it does not need to replace -all- coders. but if ONE smart Architect is able to bang out a mid tier MVP all by himself by feeding a textbox, you might feel trouble approaching.

> Everybody tends to think their business requirements are very unique How did that pan out for low-code tools? Or hell, the advent of high-level languages in the 60's and 70's? Did either of these paradigm shifts reduce the amount of coders needed? For these tools to really eat up into demand for programmers, it would need to increase productivity enough to: 1. Meet the ever-growing demand for software 2. Close the…

you mean the low code tools like wix that make billions?

Look I see what you mean, but even you have to admit that helping generate the basic structure for something will save days of development and the fact that it can probably learn a new framework of tool xyz quicker than us will give a big boost.

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#62

Post by patrickmcnamara »

exitb wrote: post #46
huseyinkeles wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like someone successfully predicted Russia invading a country (Ukraine). https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746655 Another one, even more accurate with the energy crisis we are having right now in Europe. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746942

It's not such an outrageous guess, Russia has been building up the army presence at the Ukrainian border for months before the invasion, citing military exercises as the official reason.

Yep, US intelligence had known about the possible invasion for a while.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/u-s-warns...

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#63

Post by scrollaway »

Okay, you said “apart from ChatGPT”, but that doesn’t seem fair and since nobody said it yet:

I think 2023 is the year AGI becomes a serious and mainstream topic. There will be new versions of OpenAI’s work, that will incorporate layers for correctness checking and reinforcement learning. Versions of itself that start to improve off each other.

As technical limitation after technical limitation is solved or lifted, HN and engineers at large start having discussions about what it means to be an AGI in no true Scotsman style (“no, if it can’t exactly be taught how to create a startup, fundraise for it and have a 7bn dollar exit then it’s not REAL AGI”), until at some point in the next years we stop caring about that discussion as we moved on from “are we there yet” to “what now”.

This will be longer than a year as an ordeal. I predict we will look back at 2023 as when it all started. Even though, as we all know, it didn’t, GPT had been around for a while and has been building on the shoulders of giants; but for the mainstream, it absolutely hasn’t started yet.

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#64

Post by TeMPOraL »

arcturus17 wrote: post #59
jhoelzel wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes. Everybody tends to think their business requirements are very unique. In reality not so much. Also it does not need to replace -all- coders. but if ONE smart Architect is able to bang out a mid tier MVP all by himself by feeding a textbox, you might feel trouble approaching.

> Everybody tends to think their business requirements are very unique How did that pan out for low-code tools? Or hell, the advent of high-level languages in the 60's and 70's? Did either of these paradigm shifts reduce the amount of coders needed? For these tools to really eat up into demand for programmers, it would need to increase productivity enough to: 1. Meet the ever-growing demand for software 2. Close the…

> 1. Meet the ever-growing demand for software

The growth won't last forever. At least not at this pace.

How many companies write the same bits of software as everyone else, destined to throw them away after a year or two? How much of that waste is driven by continuous churn of frameworks? How much of that software itself is pointless, powering businesses that should never be?

I'm thinking of OP's prediction:

> - Rising interest rates will push investment mass away from startups and into the other end of the spectrum: good old bonds and other fixed-rate assets.

If that were to happen, I wonder what it'll do to the "ever-growing demand for software".

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#65

Post by louison11 »

alex_duf wrote: post #22
dopeboy wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I truly think we're hitting a tipping point with privacy. Am optimistic as you on point (1).

I'm feeling the opposite way, would you like to share what makes you optimistic about it?

As I shared, Apple just enabled E2E on iCloud. Dropbox also just acquired BoxCryptor. People increasingly demand privacy and use third party services that provide it. It's actually not that hard or expensive to implement. It seems to me that Big Tech is realizing that, and not wanting to lose market share, thus moving in that direction. There are also many improvements in AI differential learning and other techniques that can be used to still learn from data and exploit value from it, while respecting people's privacy (Example: your iPhone recognizes objects and people in pictures, but the data is never sent to Apple.)

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#66

Post by kaba0 »

Java (both the language, but especially the platform) will become even more popular. The work done on it is phenomenal, it’s getting better FFI, Loom is a game changer and value types may actually start to make a debut next year. All this with a blooming language ecosystem, and I didn’t even mention GraalVM, which allows even more language to target the platform, sometimes with better speed then they would otherwise have, complete with polyglot interop.

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#67

Post by michael_leachim »

We are going to have massive shift towards rejuvenation. That is the thing that everybody wants including countries as a whole.

Who wouldn't want to reverse aging and almost fix most of the disease and costs associated with it on their population. Who, on individual level, wouldn't want to look 20 again.

Right now, the problem seems to be that we, in general, we do not believe that such thing is possible.

This will change as soon as we have a robust rejuvenation event at least in mice. After that, the rejuvenation is going to be the new field where all the investors money will go.

On a more modest perspective, stuff related to health and longevity will also see growth. New sensors, new ways to gradually improve health using tech.

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#68

Post by bheadmaster »

prohobo wrote: post #56
bheadmaster wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You just have to define what's considered anti-social Who exactly should have the authority to decide such things?

In terms of human nature and tribal dynamics: scientists. Otherwise, the platform creators.

Of course, I forgot to explicitly ask "why".

Why should scientists/platform creators be authority?

Not that I necessarily disagree, but questions like these should have answers with a lot of rational arguments behind them.

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#69

Post by throwaway019254 »

arcturus17 wrote: post #38

- Microsoft will continue to grow. Their tech ecosystem is hyper-expansive, touching everything related to development and IT (.Net, TypeScript, Github, VSCode, PowerPlatform, Azure, etc.). Please don't directly come at me with moral qualms or commentary on the quality of their products - I'm just the messenger. - Low-code tooling will see a growth spurt, not driven by "citizen developers" but by increased developer…

> coding a form will be as difficult as it was back in fucking 2013.

I'm sure there is at least one NPM package that solves this issue.

Re: Ask HN: What are your technology trends predictions for 2023?

#70

Post by michael_leachim »

michael_leachim wrote: post #67

We are going to have massive shift towards rejuvenation. That is the thing that everybody wants including countries as a whole. Who wouldn't want to reverse aging and almost fix most of the disease and costs associated with it on their population. Who, on individual level, wouldn't want to look 20 again. Right now, the problem seems to be that we, in general, we do not believe that such thing is possible. This will c…

I would say, that it is less of a prediction for 2023 and more of a trend. Like. I think about the next decade being predominately health/longevity focused.

There is also some interesting application for statistical models like ChatGPT and beyond. I would say, that text generation is not the most interesting application for such models.

For example, what kind of properties we could infer from our genome using network models.

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