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Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

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Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#61

Post by defrost »

uejfiweun wrote: post #58
defrost wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. China has a very public long standing policy of engaing in global economic colonialism via its "one belt | one road | silk road 2" strategy. China having less(?) to do with the USofA in no way translates to China withdrawing from the world - rumour has it there are many other countries other than the US.

The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. I don't think China will be able to simply swap out the US for Kazakhstan and these other 1B1R countries and throw in the towel. In fact, I just recently read that China is overhauling the entire program due to various failures: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-1166396163...

> The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world.

For now, imagine what a Trump second term might achieve, particularly given the real life example of Truss in the UK:

> The past six weeks have been not so much a cautionary tale as much as a textbook example of what happens when political ideologues are let off the leash, allowed to shut out anyone with opposing views and given the keys to the kingdom

( Rob Harris, Sydney Morning Herald )

Your linked WSJ article indicates that China's plans are coming to roost sooner rather than later:

> ... have left countries struggling to repay their debts to China.

as this is pretty much the point of economic colonialism, just as the British once ended up with Hong Kong as an outpost for a century so too will China end up with a ring of outposts spanning the globe for a century forward, ideal for those distributed ground stations for its space programs coupled with duty free ports for trade.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#62

Post by hajimuz »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #56
ospider wrote: post #45

Unfortunately, for people living in China, such as me, the only reasonable ways, under Xi's reign, are either to start a rebellion or to go abroad. Actually, the term "Run-ology"(润学), which basically means the study of running away, has been quite popular in China for some time. My current plan is to find a new job in a western country, hopefully. I used to think that my country was just an authoritarianism state and…

Is it risky for you to be writing this?

Posting things like this will get him in the jail. (Just kidding.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#63

Post by tuatoru »

defrost wrote: post #46
yogthos wrote: post #37

That is not what's happening at all. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and lots of other countries are currently building an alternative to western economy. These countries are where majority of the world population lives.

Absolutely. China has a very public long standing policy of engaing in global economic colonialism via its "one belt | one road | silk road 2" strategy. China having less(?) to do with the USofA in no way translates to China withdrawing from the world - rumour has it there are many other countries other than the US.

The belt and road 'strategy', in practice, meant Chinese companies using Chinese workers to build random bits of infrastructure (roads, ports, railways) in less-developed countries, after Chinese state agencies lent the money for them to those countries.

The things built are mostly not well used (and unsuited to the local country, being designed to serve Chinese-licensed mines or similar), and the loans are looking fairly shaky. There's antipathy in the victim countries because the promised jobs for the locals never eventuated, or worse, they were hired and then sacked in short order. One commentator said something along the lines of "rather than 5-dimensional chess it looks more like financial naïveté, and a soft power disaster."

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#64

Post by tuatoru »

givemeethekeys wrote: post #33
nostromo wrote: post #15

This only really matters if you live in China or Russia. Everyone else will do just fine or better as manufacturing in China plateaus or declines and Russia’s sphere of influence recedes to its own border. The US will continue to grow modestly but steadily with decent governance, lots of resources, and a growing population.

I keep wondering who'll work in all the factory jobs. How much will the jobs pay and how much will the rest of the people need to be able to make in order to afford Made in America things. Would appreciate insight into this.

We've been hearing for a decade now that the robots are coming to take all our jobs.

I guess it's time for them to actually turn up to work.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#65

Post by ospider »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #56
ospider wrote: post #45

Unfortunately, for people living in China, such as me, the only reasonable ways, under Xi's reign, are either to start a rebellion or to go abroad. Actually, the term "Run-ology"(润学), which basically means the study of running away, has been quite popular in China for some time. My current plan is to find a new job in a western country, hopefully. I used to think that my country was just an authoritarianism state and…

Is it risky for you to be writing this?

Posting English content on a US based platform is safe for me. I'm glad that I didn't skip all the English classes when I was a kid. :P

However, I WAS asked to report to the police station once for cursing Xi himself in Chinese on Weibo. A lot of words have been banned or censored, such as Winnie the Pooh, just because someone jokes that Xi looks like it. It's indeed very oppressive and scary for anyone who is even only slightly curious about politics in China. Looks like Cultural Revolution 2.0 is about to be generally available.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#66

Post by tuatoru »

0x445442 wrote: post #34

China and Russia isolating themselves? You’ve heard of BRICS right?

Here is how your BRICS were doing up until 2017.[1]

India and China: OK at that point (before Modi and Xi had really started micromanaging, and before Covid hit trade).

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa: get a participation certificate and commiserations.

The acronym "BRICS" was a western invention in the early 2000s, shorthand for a list of good places to invest. Nothing more.

1. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Annual-GDP-Growth-of-BRI...

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#67

Post by orwin »

0x445442 wrote: post #34

China and Russia isolating themselves? You’ve heard of BRICS right?

Brasil,

Russia,

India,

China,

South Africa.

Tell me, besides Russia who managed to align with both China and India in some way and is their intermediary (no kidding, Russian diplomacy was top tier before they attacked), which of this country do you think will align with each other against the US?

China managed in five years to be hated more than UK and France in Africa (Russia however is very well viewed there, again their diplomacy and PR). Brazil managed to create a pretty good sphere of influence but Bolsonaro by himself massacred that (his recording about abusing underage venezuelan refugees do not help, but the trend was downward before).

If i based myself solely on demographic and the concept of demographic dividends, i would be worried for most Brics. Luckily, I've read a bit about hidden migration and i now understand where the wives and sisters of Gulf countries and Singapore 'workers' are send (doing a different kind of 'work'), so i think China will do just fine. Probably the others will too once they fix their political troubles.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#68

Post by tuatoru »

jesuscript wrote: post #38
scarface74 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much do you actually know about manufacturing in China? China is not where comps it’s go for “cheap labor”. Companies aren’t building clothing factories in China.

Clothing factories is how it started. They weren’t exactly talking a whole lot of shit as we kept investing in that trade partnership up until they got to this advanced point. So, if this is the end of the line, we simply have to start again from zero in other economies. Start with the Nike sneakers all over again in some other part of the world, and don’t ever let it get so far where they also make your technology.

It's been happening for the last seven or eight years in Bangladesh.

Now, knowing something about populations of countries, you might ask yourself, why there? Why not Pakistan, Indonesia, the Philippines, or Nigeria? They all are bigger than Bangladesh, and all appear to have better trade links and geography (ports, location, and such).

Finding out the answers can deepen your understanding of the world.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#69

Post by scarface74 »

jesuscript wrote: post #38
scarface74 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much do you actually know about manufacturing in China? China is not where comps it’s go for “cheap labor”. Companies aren’t building clothing factories in China.

Clothing factories is how it started. They weren’t exactly talking a whole lot of shit as we kept investing in that trade partnership up until they got to this advanced point. So, if this is the end of the line, we simply have to start again from zero in other economies. Start with the Nike sneakers all over again in some other part of the world, and don’t ever let it get so far where they also make your technology.

It’s completely different this time. 10 years ago, no one was manufacturing the 300 million+ high precision electronic devices with hundreds of parts that Apple alone is manufacturing. The supply chain is more intertwined and Apple alone has billions invested in tooling. Not to mention China itself has a population of 1 billion+. China is also a stable government.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#70

Post by Gud »

nostrademons wrote: post #31
Throwawayaerlei wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other...." That never happened during the Cold War from what I've read, and from what I observed starting in the early 1970s it steadily got worse.

Note that the 1970s was a time of detente in the Cold War, so it supports the OPs point. As we started to forget about the Russians, we started to fight each other. The 80s is often held up as a time of renewed national unity, and it corresponds with heightened Cold War fears.

On the other hand, the 60s saw race riots and massive demonstrations against the Vietnam war. Plus the McCarthyism in the 40s and 50s.
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