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Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

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Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#61

Post by baybal2 »

mectors wrote: post #52

The lack of differentiation between two EV brands will not be the major disruption to the car industry. It will be the ownership. In 3 to 5 years we should see autonomous vehicles that are offered by robot taxi networks. The same car can offer transport services to 5 families or more and still each family will be able to use the car to similar levels they are currently used to. Customers will no longer have to worry…

> It will be the ownership. In 3 to 5 years we should see autonomous vehicles that are offered by robot taxi networks.

We already see autonomous vehicles offered by non-robot taxi networks... And... what so?

> Customers will no longer have to worry about maintenance, charging, insurance, parking, cleaning,...

It's called taxi...

> Only very few companies can create/train the self-driving technology, e.g. Tesla, Google,... The outcome will be that we will see a lot less car companies.

There is no dramatic differentiation to current "AI" driving systems what-so-ever, they are all quite dumb, and have to act on the lowest margin of caution, just like all "self-driving" attempts working on the same principle in the last 30 years.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#62

Post by throwaway0a5e »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #4

It will probably just stay the same as now. People will buy based on a perception of brand quality based on reliability, coupled with how the car looks on the inside and outside.

> People will buy based on a perception of a perception of brand quality based on perception of a perception of reliability

Fixed that for you.

Consumers are fickle.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#63

Post by petercooper »

twobitshifter wrote: post #39

If someone can get full self driving and patents it, they’ll have the market. Software is where we are seeing most innovation right now. Self parking, 3D surround cameras, accident avoidance, auto lane change, etc. I think you’re correct that there will be less appeal from a technical performance perspective to buy an individual brand. All EVs have fast enough acceleration (some dangerously so.) So competition there…

All EVs have fast enough acceleration (some dangerously so.) So competition there is not going to continue.

I'm less sure about that. I think it will remain a distinctive feature that people will actively choose for or against, at least.

The new Mini EV from BMW (and which is replacing the i3 as BMW's 'flagship' EV) has only 0-60 in 7s which is not very interesting at all. But they're not aiming at the performance crowd (plus it can only do about 150 miles on a charge). Meanwhile Tesla can boast sub 5s 0-60 in almost every vehicle so anyone who wants that "slammed into the seat"/"first away from the lights" experience will still lean towards them.

A sub 5s 0-60 will be a selling point for me when it's time to go electric. If I must go electric, I want some dopamine-inducing benefit for it, and beating the remaining petrol cars off the lights will be a big selling point for me even if I'm buying a 7 seater SUV or whatever ;-)

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#64

Post by at_a_remove »

I think that you can take all of the differentiators that exist for ICE vehicles (price, reliability, status ...) and then add in some new factors:

1) Range anxiety

2) Recharge concerns (plays into range anxiety)

3) Novel technology fears (will my trusted mechanic of twenty years be able to handle this or am I stuck with the dealership?)

4) "Handling" -- will this drive like my old ICE car? Apparently a major irritation factor from some EV adopters I know, who disliked how out of control they felt.

5) Technology settling ... my guess is that the standard voltage systems within these vehicles will eventually settle on a standard between these vehicles, because people will be interested in the "pluggability" of EV options if they are that much simpler. Can I just plug in my dashcam, or do I need a voltage converter? I'm driving over to my friend's place, can I use his charger?

I'm probably missing a few.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#65

Post by bionhoward »

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #19
bionhoward wrote: post #9

I believe cars are way less important than people think. Ride sharing and WFH goes a long way. The elephant in the room is Augmented Reality. We're not talking enough about the consequences of AR for the economy. If I have a normal car, and I'm wearing AR, I can re-skin it with unreal engine. The most interesting technologies aren't about transportation -- they're about human augmentation, transhumanism. A car is jus…

> "cars are not a necessity" This is only potentially true in dense urban environments. Its not true in suburban and rural areas, at least in the US. The rural-to-urban transition won't occur fast enough for this to not be true for a few decades at very least.

I do live in a suburban / rural area without a car for the last 2 years. To shop I jog or bike to the store, or order from Amazon or the grocery store...and it's been fine. Sometimes I use Uber or ride with a friend. Yeah, I'd love to have a Toyota Tacoma, but insurance/maintenance/depreciation/gas is tens of thousands of dollars I can dedicate to other things instead.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#66

Post by karaterobot »

baybal2 wrote: post #38

> What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles? I'm afraid there will be none. Hull shape, and the battery size is pretty much the only thing existing EVs differ from each other. Mechanically, they are all very, very simple. Simpler than any IC car. Compact wishbone suspension is used on pretty much every one of them, since all EVs are city cars, and you want as much space for batteries as possible, an…

I don't know a ton about electric vehicles, but I do know you can go a long way without a technological differentiator. Variations in materials, design, name brand, and marketing have sustained the fashion industry for quite a while. What's the difference between two pairs or shoes, or two pairs of pants? One isn't fundamentally more advanced then the other, yet there are winners and losers in that industry.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#67

Post by throwaway0a5e »

browningstreet wrote: post #41
sho_hn wrote: post #33

Economically, important competitive factors will be: Access to resources required to build batteries (e.g. mining rights), battery manufacturing capacity, location of manufacturing plants (as regulation on energy footprint is sensitive to the energy mix used in manufacturing and shipping). In terms of business success, making the right decisions on these strategic factors will likely matter just as much as designing…

I think a lot of the “it’s already commodified” comments are belied by the differences of reliability and cost of ownership across brands. That’s a differentiator and may continue into the EV future, as you can see how different they are just in the reviews and characteristics of current EV models. Range, weight and electronics do produce pretty different products.. it’s not just motors and batteries and over-the-air…

>belied by the differences of reliability and cost of ownership across brands.

But these differences are razor thin compared to consumer perceptions of them.

For every fanboy on Reddit screeching about muh million mile 4Runner he leased for 36k there's a fleet manager who just spent an afternoon reviewing records and crunching numbers before confirming that yes we are going to buy another round of Pacificas as our current ones hit the "old enough it's not the image we want to project" threshold.

Compare the lap times of boring commuter sedans and compacts to the "sporty" and "good handling" sedans and compacts if you really want to see slim differences.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#68

Post by throwawayboise »

mectors wrote: post #52

The lack of differentiation between two EV brands will not be the major disruption to the car industry. It will be the ownership. In 3 to 5 years we should see autonomous vehicles that are offered by robot taxi networks. The same car can offer transport services to 5 families or more and still each family will be able to use the car to similar levels they are currently used to. Customers will no longer have to worry…

Uber and Lyft do this today except for the robot/autonomous part. Hasn't significantly dented car ownership that I can see. From my experience, the biggest benefit is that it makes it easier to be a tourist without renting a car.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#69

Post by bin_bash »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #2

Do you want an answer or do you just want lunchroom discussion? You may as well be asking for stock tips or tonight's lotto numbers. You won't find an answer that's accurate and reliable enough to be actionable here or anywhere. If anyone could do more than idly speculate (probably dressed up with some tropes that play to the audience's confirmation bias to maximize virtue points) OEMs wouldn't be paying millions of…

Clearly nobody here is claiming to be 100% accurate in their predictions. It's still a fun exercise to think about what the future will look like.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#70

Post by chad_strategic »

I believe what you are asking here is the fundamental question marketing and branding have trying to solve since well the invention of economic choice of products. (Coke or Pepsi)

The advertising industry has made billions and billions trying to convince very similar products are the unique and different.

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