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Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

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Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#61

Post by AnimalMuppet »

Lordarminius wrote: post #60
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counter-prediction: Bitcoin trades at three figures at some point in the next 10 years. (And not at six.)

Would you like to share your reasons for being bearish on BTC ?

From the current price, it's closer to three digits than to six, so my prediction actually has less price movement than the other.

But it's more than that. I've never believed the "To the moon!" predictions, because I've never believed that the real use value was there. It seems that people are investing on belief, but the actual real world use is... almost non-existent.

What's the daily volume of Bitcoin transactions that are purchases of other things, rather than investments in Bitcoin? [Edit: Divide that by the existing number of Bitcoin. That gives you the fraction spent in a day. What's the same figure for the US dollar?] Is Bitcoin really a currency if (relatively) nobody uses it to buy things? No, at that point it's an investment. [Edit: Or a store of value. But the value is fluctuating too much for it to be a very good store of value...]

But if there's no fundamental value, and it's not being used as a currency, what's the rational basis for its value? This makes it seem like a bubble.

Now, I don't actually have data for volume of purchases made in Bitcoin. I'm going on my impression, and I could be wrong.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#62

Post by HNLurker2 »

zapperdapper wrote: post #57
woofdogwoof wrote: post #27

Thawing permafrost releases significantly more methane than expected and it supercharges the acceleration of climate change, and the earth itself supplants humans as the primary source of Greenhouse gases.

Yes, I think a lot of people still aren't aware of this problem, which has been studied for many years now. Once the positive feedback loop takes hold it's game over.

> Once the positive feedback loop takes hold it's game over.

Can you elaborate please?

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#63

Post by HNLurker2 »

zapperdapper wrote: post #58
Zoo3y wrote: post #20

There's already a budding anti-tech movement. People destroy robots. There is a mistrust between users and services. This is definitely not the answer HN would like, but this can grow into a full-blown anti-tech counter-culture where people don't use smart phones or laptops, and instead pickup less invasive devices like the lite phone 2, nokias, pay-as-you-go flip phones, etc. There's a large dissent towards office w…

I think you got a lot right here. Don't get me wrong, I love my online banking as much as the next guy, but a lot of technology being produced has a very negative impact - look at social media.

True not Unabomber level. But mild level.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#64

Post by HNLurker2 »

zapperdapper wrote: post #59

I will say ride sharing combined with EV tech. I am not bullish on self-driving cars - I think that will take longer than people think (more than ten years to become mainstream). I think EV combined with ride calling (Uber/Grab etc.) will grow considerably.

>have 5 more but it's not related to t

Doesn't matter elaborate

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#65

Post by tobylane »

HNLurker2 wrote: post #62
zapperdapper wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I think a lot of people still aren't aware of this problem, which has been studied for many years now. Once the positive feedback loop takes hold it's game over.

> Once the positive feedback loop takes hold it's game over. Can you elaborate please?

Once some methane comes out of the most southerly permafrost the earth will warm up and defrost a greater amount, which will warm up the earth a larger amount...

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#66

Post by mooman219 »

satvikpendem wrote: post #33
voycey wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you? Antarctic?

Worse, USA

I am in the USA, specifically Seattle, so I'd assume I have better than average coverage. 4G is spec'd at 100Mbps. If you're lucky, you'll get 40-70Mbps download, and <10Mbps upload. If you're not fortunate enough to have city-tier coverage, then you're probably at the national average at <20Mbps. 5G is spec'd at 1000Mbps.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#67

Post by HNLurker2 »

tobylane wrote: post #65
HNLurker2 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Once the positive feedback loop takes hold it's game over. Can you elaborate please?

Once some methane comes out of the most southerly permafrost the earth will warm up and defrost a greater amount, which will warm up the earth a larger amount...

It s someone doing something about it?

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#68

Post by tobylane »

HNLurker2 wrote: post #67
tobylane wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once some methane comes out of the most southerly permafrost the earth will warm up and defrost a greater amount, which will warm up the earth a larger amount...

It s someone doing something about it?

All efforts to stop global warming will stop permafrost melting if they start reducing the temperature rise.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#69

Post by speedplane »

- Self-driving cars will still not be commonplace

- Moore's law is already dead, but in 10 years the implications of that will be fully realized

- Global warming won't be curtailed, rich countries will learn to cope with extreme weather patterns, people from poor countries will emigrate

- Cancer treatment will improve dramatically for a large variety of relatively niche cancers, but there still won't be a common cure

- Humans will still not go to Mars

- Soft AI will become prevalent for many low-level automation tasks, but general AI will stay in science fiction

- there will be significant headway made in resolving general relativity and quantum mechanics, likely by finding more situations where they disagree but not resolving those discrepancies

- We'll find exoplanets likely suitable for life, but too far away to reach them.

- Fusion power will just be "10 years away"

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#70

Post by speedplane »

speedplane wrote: post #69

- Self-driving cars will still not be commonplace - Moore's law is already dead, but in 10 years the implications of that will be fully realized - Global warming won't be curtailed, rich countries will learn to cope with extreme weather patterns, people from poor countries will emigrate - Cancer treatment will improve dramatically for a large variety of relatively niche cancers, but there still won't be a common cure…

More 10 year predictions:

- China's chip industry will be fully caught up to the U.S.'s, Intel chips will still be the best, but only by a few percentage points and won't be economical at a large scale.

- Building custom ASICs will be far more common, and will be an important way of improving performance, as well as differentiation in the market (e.g., Adobe will produce their Photoshop chip).

- AI will get very good at analyzing PDFs and HTML tables. There will be apps that you can give access to your email that will be able to make very detailed itemized reports of your spending habits, and make recommendations on how to save money or get more for it.

- Dominant forms of trust will form on the internet. I am inclined to think that traditional media will take up this role, but it's possible that others will fill this space too.

- Even though humans will not go to Mars in 10 years, there will be a credible plan to put humans there (possibly taking another 10 years).

- Probes to Titan will be launched, and credible plans to land something on the moon will be well underway.

- Genomics in criminal law continues it's rapid growth, making unsolved rape cases a thing of the past.

- China's rapid growth in creating patents starts causing internal issues; they face their own first internal patent war, causing significant internal economic issues, forcing them to re-evaluate the value they ascribe to patents.

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