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Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#61

Industry 4.0 and the rise of intelligent manufacturing. A marriage of 3D printing, AI, and IoT technology will change what consumers can order and how quickly it arrives to them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0

I agree with this one. Given the advances in 3D printing, distributed applications and IoT this concept is inevitable and there will be a big shift in manufacturing.

Are you working in this field?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#62
post #9

I'd vote for by CRISPR and the rest of bio-technology, e.g., as in Eric Lander and his MIT lectures at YouTube, for, my guesses, better crops, healthier farm animals, attacking insects, e.g., mosquitoes, attacking causes of infections, for curing some of the remaining difficult diseases, especially cancer. A second guess, or a guess for second place, would be artificial general intelligence (AGI) if and only if someo…

We already have the possibility to change genes, CRISPR is just making it easier. The problem is the lack of understanding and ability to engineer non-trivial things. (Most GMOs are just Glyphosate resistant or have the BT gene). I guess we will deepen our understanding but still not be able to change big things for the next decades

Yes, but my guess is that with CRISPR we will be able to do DNA editing and experiments much faster. Then slowly, but much faster than in the past, we will be able to figure out, first cut, what some segment of DNA does what and, second-cut, some of the more complicated ways DNA works.

Then applications to agriculture, medicine, etc. might come along in a nice stream.

Still, of course, it stands to be a very long line of work to figure out much about how DNA causes a human actually to "work".

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#64

First, the negatives: Another AI winter Another VR winter Another hype-cycle of home automation Another hype-cycle of growing teeth There will be tech progress, but behind the scenes, doing the same things as before, just better. As prosaic as more modular manufactured goods, in the sense of prefab home construction, automobile components, FPGA's for electronic goods. Some may revolutionize the value-chain in an indu…

> The central question of this technological change will be: why do the hyper-wealthy need people?

This is what concerns me. They already apply their wealth and organizations to treating the general public as a farm they cultivate. They shape the educational, tax, media, and legal structure in their favor quite successfully today. With the technological advancements in media development and their hold over education policy, tomorrow has a terrifying forecast unless some educational miracle of critical thought occurs.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#65
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was referring to the sheer number of people being born. Even if the growth rate is declining, it's still a lot of ever growing number of people looking for housing.

The sheer number of people being born also has to be compared to the sheer number of people dying. The growth curve is leveling off quickly, and there is still a lot of space left.

You have bigger fish to fry if growth goes negative. If you think that's going to be the case soon in your country, maybe retirement homes would be a wiser investment.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#68
In the U.S.A.

10 years from now will look surprisingly similar to present day. Political lobbying will continue (and worsen) to stifle innovation and even iteration. We'll still have a single choice in ISP. Broadband speeds will still be ridiculously slow in most parts of the country. Driverless trucks will only just be getting a foothold, and people will still be wondering where the driverless cars are. Managers will still expect "butts in chairs", so WFH will still not be an option for most. We were talking about encryption backdoors in the 90's (clipper chip), we're still talking about them now and we'll be talking about them in 10 years.

It will be hotter outside.

10 years, is... just not that far away.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#70
post #23

Surveillance will not only be pervasive (it already is) but normalized on a global scale. Read up on China's "Social Credit System" for a glimpse of where we're headed.

A system like the one you mentioned not only encourages surveillance but also paves way for more corruption at the top level (assuming the government goes ahead with rating businesses as well). I sincerely hope this system is abolished before other countries begin implementing it as well.
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