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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#591

Post by galdosdi »

throwaway787544 wrote: post #274
kurthr wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a reason you assume people won't simply charge at night with relatively standard 240V (or even 120V) chargers? Most cars don't average more than 60 miles a day, which is less than 20kWh. In much of the US you could install 10-15 solar panels to do that even in the winter. Now solar panels are mostly made in China (as are almost all consumer electronics), but that seems like a far more general problem to solv…

Charging in cities and apartment compexes is still an unsolved problem, and most people live in cities. For example, just to provide enough chargers for Philadelphia's 1.5M residents (63% of them drive to work), one of every ~6 car lengths on every residential sidewalk would need concrete dug up and a charger installed. The city will never pay for that, and it would be a logistical and political nightmare. Even if in…

Philadelphia is an interesting choice of example. I've seen charging cords going out windows to cars from time to time, facilitated by the popularity of the rowhouse. (IMHO even in south philly, you can usually snag a spot in front of your house several times per week if you care enough to try-- if you only drive enough to charge once or twice a week this is already enough)

Obviously not an ideal solution but a good example of the kind of stop gaps we'll be seeing over time.

I'm also already seeing rapid chargers frequently in strip malls and stuff. So maybe doing errands and spending at least an hour there once a week will be another stop gap.

Considering how often streets get repaved and that we're talking about gradual change over the next decade or two, and that there are inferior but workable stopgaps as mentioned above (that will allow people to get by, yet also incentivize them to loudly demand better) I think there's time to add the charging stations necessary as needed without any serious issues.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#592

Post by aglavine »

vivegi wrote: post #575

1. Passive radiative heating/cooling (paints, coatings, etc.,) 2. Low power electronics and energy harvesters (thermal/clothing, kinetic energy, rf energy harvesters etc.,) 3. Physical logistics networks (similar to Internet Protocol with standard physical containers and transfer networks - land, sea, rail, air) 4. Ubiquitous drone delivery (last mile & long haul) 5. Fiat digital currency/payment networks

3 looks interesting

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#593

Post by alexb_ »

clavalle wrote: post #296

The US codifying privacy as a Right. Too many parties interested in exploiting the lack of privacy are making the lack of privacy laws painfully apparent. When it changes, its going to be all at once.

>Too many parties interested in exploiting the lack of privacy are making the lack of privacy laws painfully apparent.

What incentive do they have to change? If anything, this seems to suggest the exact opposite, that privacy will never be codified as a right.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#595

Post by tomuli38 »

motohagiography wrote: post #287

Reasoning it through, what don't people politely talk about? Sex, money, politics, and religion. Sex: the impact of the normalization of casual sex work on sustainable families, and how specific tech and financial services for managing single motherhood will be huge. Money: financial alternatives to emerging social credit based systems, grey markets, working class capital/savings flight, cyberpunk dystopia. Politics:…

How exactly are secularlists disenfranchising religions? There is a large swathe believing the separation of church and state is religious oppression, and they act like the country is not for those of all faiths.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#596

Post by swader999 »

aaronsimpson wrote: post #255
JasserInicide wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deglobalization I mean, I think it'd be nice, but in the US our leaders are so fucking corrupt and owned by business interests that I don't see it happening until at least all the boomers/Gen Xers die off.

Is globalization really the result of corrupt leaders though, or a shift in corporate practice to accommodate the rising demands of consumers? It seems like no amount of corruption really matters as long as we're drinking lattes and eating avocado every day.

It has a lot to do with shipping and protection of trade routes. That is about to become a lot more harder and more expensive.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#597

Post by gwbas1c »

Personal transportation by drone: (Basically, flying cars.)

Just imagine, you can travel reasonable distances without needing to deal with traffic. Your drone could pick you up on your roof, and then drop you off on a roof in a city, bypassing roads and traffic.

More importantly, if most personal transport is by drone, it means we don't need to invest as much in roads, bridges, and railroads.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#598

Post by gaws »

fuzzfactor wrote: post #594

>What's the next big thing that few people are talking about? The people you're talking about have already quit talking about the thing you would now be interested in, so you're too late already.

Or they found a way to profit off the thing and took the conversations to private channels.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#599

Post by swader999 »

kragen wrote: post #186
mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

How does rebuilding manufacturing work? Does it look the same as it did 50 years ago, or is it different? What happens if the attempt fails?

Robots this time.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#600

Post by salmo »

feoren wrote: post #571
entropicgravity wrote: post #566

Personal vehicles will be getting both bigger and smaller. What's different from the past is that electric motors scale much better than IC engines. Both the world's smallest vehicles (kid's toys) and the largest vehicles (huge mining trucks) are both electric. First the small. Cities will soon start to ban all but electric vehicles in their downtown cores (already happening in some Chinese cities). The primary reaso…

I think this is a good insight, and I hope this comes to pass, but a couple points: > the world's largest vehicles (huge mining trucks) are electric What about cruise ships, freighters, freight trains, and aircraft carriers? They're diesel or nuclear-powered. Or maybe nuclear still counts as having an electric motor, just with a nuclear generator instead of a battery? > only EV's that are half the width of a normal c…

Freight trains are also electric, just with diesel generators. I'll completely speculate 2 things that stand in the way of them going fully electric:

1. Trains derail, crash, etc.

I live in a city that's a rail hub. We probably have a derailment every couple years even with annual rail/rail bed maintenance. They will fix the rail, the roads around it, and have everything back up and running in less than 2 days. You spill some diesel and it sucks to clean up. You spill Li and you walk into "environmental disaster."

2. Money. When it's cheaper, then they'll get serious.

To the last point it's similar to fleet vehicles for large fleets. You see a lot of pledges to go all-electric by 20XX. That's because replacing a fleet requires a TON of capital already, and fundamentally changing the vehicles is an order of magnitude higher.

Think about a delivery hub like the post office. They have a network already established for purchasing gasoline, delivering it, local storage, refueling process, etc. They have operations built around it.

You now likely have to have parallel infrastructure for electric, which means negotiating major power consumption with each local power company, purchase of new or adjacent land, buildout, etc. Can you refuel in the same time window to not effect operations? If not, can you shift operations without impacting customer experience?

Now, you will see companies deploying all-electric in niches, especially when it opens up new market opportunities. Those tiny urban vehicles could enable vehicles to go where they could not before, reducing time spent walking. And that might have a shorter timeline than autonomous drones that don't run old ladies over.

I think even more than cruise ships and freighters, the biggest all-electric vehicle impact would come from all-electric airplanes. They still haven't gotten off of leaded fuel (see #2). The emissions there are massive.

But I think #1 will be a barrier there too. And the bureaucracy will slow it way down just like it did with unleaded jet fuel, which exists now, but is essentially unused.

And I guess a theme I'm coming up with is that electric is cool and all, but won't impact big % points of emissions until it's adopted by cargo, not human transport.

And cases like trains and large ships that are electric, but fuel the local electric with local power generation bring up the other big point: How would we even begin to power cargo? It's orders of magnitude more massive than consumer vehicles and it's growing so fast that supply can't meet demand.

Anyway, whatever. I know enough to be dangerous but not enough to be an expert on any of this, and I'm rambling.

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