Earlier quoted context omitted.
Consider donating to the pub, the money you'd have spent :-)
And tell the tender it's an advance on future pints, and you're keeping track!
Probably the healthiest thing all around to be honest haha
Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
571–580 of 772 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#572Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…
But where is South Korea going with its strategy - are they going to keep doing that forever? And whats China's long term strategy? Wuhan is still locked down.
Once you remove community spread, you only need to deal with international travel, which can be dealt with much more cost-effectively.
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#573Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…
HK and SK both have huge amounts of social distancing in effect (notably schools shut down). Singapore is about the only country I'd view as never having used lockdown.
Taiwan did heavy school closures but is now coming back online. Hopefully, things hold up.
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#574Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’ve seen this attitude quite a lot among younger people lately, it’s just super irresponsible and arrogant. In a situation like this, the responsibility must be shared, no one should consider themselves free from the responsibilities of stopping the spread this virus.
> In a situation like this, the responsibility must be shared Why not in other situations though? The elites avoid taxes, Boomers have houses, banks are pumping up the asset bubble, while young people have student debt, can't buy a place to live (or even a car), have no assets and, if they're lucky and productive and high-earners, they "enjoy" 20% higher tax rate than owners of capital... Why exactly should anyone no…
I hate the fact that I kinda see your point.
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#575Earlier quoted context omitted.
You have a .2% mortality chance once you exhibit symptoms, right? That's much greater than no risk.
That 0.2% is in line with the flu, and also, generally is attributable to those with comorbid conditions, especially ones that compromised immunity. If you're young and healthy, it's not 0.2% -- it's much lower. If you're young and unhealthy it's not 0.2% -- it's much higher. There's no such thing as no risk. I'm putting myself at risk of all sorts of things by leaving the house.
Your figures are wrong by several orders of magnitude. In the 18-49 age group, the seasonal flu fatality rate is around 0.0018%.[1] 0.2% is already uncomfortable odds: 1 in 500. And that figure assumes proper hospital care as others have also replied. It's much higher if the healthcare system is flooded.
1. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
(The mortality rate figures given are per 100,000 population, so 1.8 / 1000 yields the percentage for that age group.)
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#576Doesn't herd immunity require like 90% immunity?
Even with 5% of cases requiring hospitalization this is insane.
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#577Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, they are both in agreement that we need to reach herd immunity at minimal cost. They also agree to keep the rate of new infections below NHS's capacity to handle. They disagree on: - adherence to lockdown measures over a longer time - actual rate of spreading the disease I agree with John Edmunds on these two points, however I am frankly disappointed a third approach is absent from the debate which is to lockdo…
> These types of organized "corona parties" What if we gave a corona party and nobody came? Seriously, I don't think forcing people to be infected is ethical in any way whatsoever, unless you are a truly brutal trolley-pushing utilitarian, and very confident that your strategy will work....
Your parent wasn’t advocating for forced infection. It’s my understanding that pox parties were a fairly common way to manage the spread of chicken pox.
If you take some extreme assumptions; everyone will catch this, and you can infect in a totally controlled way where only the ones you wanted to infect were infected, you could definitely argue that controlled infection was the best course of action.
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#578Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…
THe strategy in Asia seems to keep the virus under control but people in those countries are much more disciplined than European, not sure the measures they take would be as much effective in Europe. The strategy of UK seems valid as long as you protect the more vulnerable, which they don't do. What is the strategy after a lock down? You go back to work? It needs only one person infected to get the virus propagating…
The plan to protect the vulnerable is four months of quarantine: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantine...
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#579Earlier quoted context omitted.
Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.
Aside from the fact that you may spend a week or more spreading virus all over the place and to potentially dozens or hundreds of other people with this approach, there is at least a 1 in 10 chance that, if infected, you will need hospitalization and serious care. You will contribute to overloading a medical system, without which even your mortality rate would be closer to 5% than the <0.1% you seem to assume. It is…
Indeed, "atypical pneumonia" is a killer, you're basically drowning in your own blood and fluids. This can happen to anyone.
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#580Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah this basically reads to me as UK doesn’t give a shit about it’s seniors since death is inevitable. Once a vaccine that works is out I’m sure most of the world will get it. The lockdown is all about preventing (early) deaths.
That is a complete misreading of what they are trying to do, which is flattening the curve and making sure more people can be treated with the medical resources they can measure and substantiate.
> which is flattening the curve
You are NOT flattening jack shit by having all your young population become infected!! [0]
They are NOT gonna mass transport ALL the elderly population to a far away island and isolate them there, they all are gonna get infected and the NHS is going to collapse because of it
There already have been cases documented of people getting infected because of unsealed bathroom toilet pipes on apartment buildings... [1]
[0] https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=693
[1] https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/artic...