571–580 of 1001 posts
Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…
This is fun. Here are some of my predictions: By 2030: 1. Google shuts down at least one of Pixel Phones, Gmail, Google Cloud. Even after a decade, Google is not able to make a successful social-network or messaging application. 2. Stock market: Microsoft and Amazon at-least doubles in MarketCap. AMD will be at-least 4 times what it is now. Tesla will be 5 times by the end of the decade. FB stays about the same! 3. F…
Wow! never thought of this.
2-Conflict between Us forces and Iranian backed miltas in Iraq leads to a political settlement that forces the US to leave another middle eastern country.
3-Insurgent left-wing democratics take control over the party and begin to purge moderate elements. Resulting in an increased polarization of American politics.
4-China suffers a major economic collapse that causes an uprising similar to the occupy movement in the US.
5-Mines all over the world are shut down as increasing regulations make extraction politically impossible.
6-Borders become increasingly irrelevant as nations give up on attempts to stop climate refugees.
7-Research on graphene based batteries finally reaches the market, leading to a massive decrease in energy storage costs.
1. Bitcoin will never have surpassed double their 2017 high in real terms. 2. Apple will not be in the top 5 of publicly traded US companies by market cap. 3. NASDAQ index will be between 13k and 15k. 4. Republicans will win the 2020 presidential election. Democrats win in 2024 and 2028. 5. A woman will hold/have held the office of vice president of the US. 6. The US senate will have a republican majority. 7. The biggest domestic (US/canada) movie in 2029 will be part of a franchise that existed at the start of 2020. 8. The US will not have a fully public/universal healthcare, and the average american adult will get health insurance through his/her employer. 9. The top programming language will be neither Java nor Javascript. 10. More than 25% of video game revenues will go towards VR games. 11. half life 3 still not released.
1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. 2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite. 3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock bu…
Around the start of the decade -
- Nearly every old SAAS company would become a platform, offering marketplace and hosting for custom-built solutions. - Rise of very narrowly focussed software companies. (superhuman for X trend - to me this means - software with an extremely narrow set of features, with a focus on being fast). - Reduced time to market for software products, followed by a decline in the quality of software (performance, security, speed of building features). - A rise in a number of open-source full-fledged-products. - Rise of NoCode, would facilitate the Rise of micro-SAAS.
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Around the middle of the decade -
- Rise of paid Open Source developers. - Rise of IT dept. in the organizations. - Data engineering would be a part of IT. - More organizations would turn to inhouse development. - Rise of FAAS (Feature as a Service) on the top of the SAAS and Open Source, would be facilitated by a small set of teams, serving the Enterprise market. - Every IDE would offer ML-based code-completion. This would be adopted quite quickly by the companies, in hopes that tech-debt would be paid. - Experienced software engineers would consolidate behind the core-tech companies or churn out of the industry.
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Around the end of the decade -
- CS (subject) would just become AI/ML and would follow the path of core engineering degrees, where having a post-grad degree is no longer optional. Would be offered as a combined UG+PG degree. The curriculum would be more or less the same, only the name change would happen for the UG. Universities would struggle to attract candidates in the CS stream as the popularity of lambda school and other boot camps soars. - CS (subject) would be merged with other degrees to offer combined degrees. The curriculum would include the first two years of CS - programming, database, data structure, data engineering, software engineering and some IT subjects around DevOps. - Rise of industry, function-specific NoCode apps/services. - Postgres-Rust - release of Postgres, rewritten in Rust (in general - nGinx, Python, not all, but one of the major tech component)
- Day 0 for the Sofware industry. It bottoms out, before rising up again in the next decade. Mythical man-months would be the bible for the new s/w industry. - Day 0 for the distributed internet, distributed apps.
- A hardware company, bigger than Intel at its peak. - First truly distributed organization - the start of an experiment.
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Random Predictions
- Nationalist sentiments are on the rise in India, this might force consumer-facing companies to take some drastic measures, such as - Walmart and Amazon to either merge or leave India. - Amazon would peak. - Gold rates would be all-time high. - Mental health issues would be on a rise. - Cloud kitchens/ delivery only restaurants would be the norm. - Ownership would start moving towards digital (digital money, space in VR land, etc). - Expect breakthroughs in quantum computing and the internet. - I hope for some progress in self-configurable robots. - The sharing economy would grow.
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* VR finally takes off for real, creating the next app store style payday as killer apps come online. * A VR content studio becomes a billion dollar business * At the end of the 2020's, China hits a demographic wall it can't easily recover from. * The ICE collapse begins in earnest in the latter half of 2020's. * Bitcoin's value will crater as the untethering happens (See NY AG lawsuit), leading to a crypto winter *…
How do you feel you did?
Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…
> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries. Ya let's blame it all on other people.
But with current developments this will be far too little too late and it will be a rough ride forward.
Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…
> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China
Adding renewables or nuclear while you massively increase your world-leading emissions output, won't actually improve anything.
"China Is Still Building an Insane Number of New Coal Plants"
https://www.wired.com/story/china-is-still-building-an-insan...
https://www.npr.org/2019/04/29/716347646/why-is-china-placin...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/years-afte...
2. Rising corporate concentration and market power, especially in internet technology, lead to noticeable increase in inequality without growing economy long-term (investors/employees in big tech reap all profits)
3. A minor social/technological movement for preserving information integrity / credentialing starts and is monetized by new companies
4. Universities continue the trend of being software engineer farms. Research funding continues to plateau
5. Video games / interactive digital experiences take off, especially social ones inspired by Fortnite. Someone creates a platform and a marketplace, makes developing and publishing games very, very, very easy, (easier than unity and unreal4) and begins reaping the reward
6. Hopefully, there is more wirelessly powered e-ink paper around. But I wouldn't bet on it yet. Science fiction
7. AI fizzles. Big Data mining and targeted digital business persists.
8. Cyberwarfare grows. Big tech accidentally becomes national security issue
9. GDPR comes to USA late in the decade, lagging way behind Europe. Major battle
10. Amazon grows even bigger. Beyond Meats/Impossible/equivalent become major food distributor, competing with Sysco
11. Pay by phone/mobile device takes off
12. Softbank-funded companies, suffer minor collapses. Uber, Lyft, shrink. Entire portfolio pulls back. Loss of many temporary/gig jobs. Enough economic footprint to cause minor dip in stock market. More private investment in safe startups. More corporate bonds? long-term investment continues to stagnate.
13. Generally not too much will change