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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#541

Post by nojvek »

Aperocky wrote: post #531
wyclif wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a smart observation. The UK is now taking the conservative view because it's the long term view, that this will likely become a recurring seasonal virus (or a one-time virus that keeps knocking on your door until you get it), and therefore there's not much point in a national "lockdown" to "stop" the virus, because as soon as a nation relaxes its lockdown the virus will simply pick up right where it left off.…

Except if it became seasonal there's going to be vaccines (with my faith in the medical research). And if the death rate is as high, everyone is going to get it. Making the sacrifice that british public is going through now senseless. Also, it becoming seasonal could also be a self fulfilling prophecy due to its policy.

Yeah this basically reads to me as UK doesn’t give a shit about it’s seniors since death is inevitable.

Once a vaccine that works is out I’m sure most of the world will get it. The lockdown is all about preventing (early) deaths.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#542

Post by dash2 »

knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

About those hundreds of academics: about 90% seem to be mathematicians. I checked two at random and none of their top publications were about epidemiology. You can be a scientist, yet know effectively nothing on a specific topic.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#543

Post by AncientTree »

ajross wrote: post #372
foobarbazetc wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s already too late. They’re on the Italy path. This “herd immunity” thing is nonsense. So much so that doctors and scientists are warning against it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-nh...

It's not "nonsense". It's real. It works for almost every other virus out there (even colds and flu, even though it's imperfect: new seasonal cold and flu strains don't become pandemics, because many people have some immunity from previous infections). If you let a large enough fraction of the UK contract and recover from COVID-19, we have every reason to suspect that the society will develop good enough herd immunit…

And if the worst case occurs, with millions of elderly and immunocompromised dying, there are billions in potential savings in pensions and old-age healthcare, as well as improvements in housing affordability and overall reductions in national CO2 emissions.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#544

Post by wyclif »

nojvek wrote: post #541
Aperocky wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except if it became seasonal there's going to be vaccines (with my faith in the medical research). And if the death rate is as high, everyone is going to get it. Making the sacrifice that british public is going through now senseless. Also, it becoming seasonal could also be a self fulfilling prophecy due to its policy.

Yeah this basically reads to me as UK doesn’t give a shit about it’s seniors since death is inevitable. Once a vaccine that works is out I’m sure most of the world will get it. The lockdown is all about preventing (early) deaths.

That is a complete misreading of what they are trying to do, which is flattening the curve and making sure more people can be treated with the medical resources they can measure and substantiate.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#545

Post by chii »

ethbro wrote: post #508
lmm wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the one hand, we have people getting evicted from their homes and having to visit soup kitchens. Which translates directly into many years of reduced life expectancy, no?

I understand the point you and GP are trying to make. I'm saying that the two miseries feel like apples vs oranges, given the context. You'd have to go pretty far to convince me that (even mass) economic depression is more harmful than widespread, near-term fatalities.

mass economic depression affects certain groups more than others.

Near-term fatalities affect certain groups more than others. Those with access to medical services (or can pay for more of it) will be less affected.

Which side being worse is a determination you have to make for yourself.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#546

Post by chii »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #447
dathinab wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basically: Throw 2 or 3 hounded thousand lives away to have less economical impact next year. I.e. pure evil IMHO. especially because there is a non small chance that it will be more like 1-1.5 Million more death then necessary.

It is basically nothing like that in any way. If it works, it will not be at the expense of extra "sacrificed" lives, that's nonsense. The basic idea is to isolate the vulnerable and eventually protect them with herd immunity. You are allowed to opine that this will fail dismally, but you're not allowed to just make shit up and accuse people of sacrificing lives. Have an ounce of shame.

> The basic idea is to isolate the vulnerable and eventually protect them with herd immunity.

so what about those who had to suffer to give this herd immunity? If i were a UK citizen, and i got infected, there's a non-zero chance that i will also need a ventilator. Any, even a tiny misstep will cause the numbers to grow beyond the amount of beds available. That i am asked to take this risk is absurd.

Full isolation and quarantine is a more conservative way - for myself at least. Even if the economic damage is severe.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#547

Post by angry_octet »

hedora wrote: post #465
necovek wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3. the immunity gained through an infection holds for a long enough time (how long would need to be checked with the infection rate), which we do not know yet Additionally, we know nothing of the long term effects even for the "young and healthy". Mortality rates for people 10-39 is 0.2%, 40-49 it's at 0.4%, 50-59 1.3%, 60-69 at 3.6%. Serious conditions develop in a bigger proportion of cases, so you are looking at 4…

> unknown long term effects Ultimately, it’s a just a really inconsistent cold. The vast majority of cases are mild. However, if it spreads to the lungs, it’s worse than the flu. As far as I know, there’s no evidence that it’s any more exotic than that.

There are reports from China of significant lung scarring among patients who had to be hospitalised.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#548

Post by aemreunal »

mattmanser wrote: post #61
haunter wrote: post #54

I like tomp's comment from a few days ago, feels like the UK playing a game theory https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22555643 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted out 3) pandemic, no action -> government was "wrong", cau…

This clip of the political sitcom Yes Minister from the 1980s is making the rounds on our social media, as it explains that thought process succinctly, and hilariously: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qNjFIwRYEIo

Zapp Brannigan said it best: "Come back when it's a catastrophe"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW6xTkivmto

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#549

Post by klenwell »

knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

Interestingly, to my surprise, social distancing appear more effective than lockdown (in part because full lockdowns are impossible). At least according to this simulation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-si...

The success of Hong Kong and Taiwan look like extensions of the social distancing paradigm to me.

Of course, maybe UK government recognizes that the its citizens are equally incapable of effective social distancing. Whatever the case, this looks like madness.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#550

Post by chii »

ash wrote: post #403
roenxi wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy is a tool to get people goods and services. It is less important than life & death on a mass scale. 0.1% to 1% of the population unexpectedly dying is huge . If the government was implementing a plan that they had considered and prepared over a number of years, carefully assessed the evidence and weighed the options? Costs and benefits have been weighed and it is hard to ask for more. Government has no id…

> The economy is a tool to get people goods and services. It is less important than life & death on a mass scale. It's not as simple. GDP per capita is strongly correlated with life expectancy. In other words, people die sooner with worse economy.

or die _even sooner_ with this herd immunity strat.

On an individual level, i would not want this, even if it's "better" for the UK in the long run. As an individual, it's unacceptable for me to take this sort of risk, and i would not agree to it if i had a choice.

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