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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#541

1. At least one major US city will be substantially destroyed due to climate change. Probably Miami, Galveston, or New Orleans. It will not be fully rebuilt. (Much like Puerto Rico and Key West). 2. Self-driving cars will arrive, but as a niche product for senior communities. (Like Google's slow bubble car.) 3. Amazon will finally get robotic picking working, and their warehouse employment will start to drop. 4. Some…

Yeah, seen a story that rising sea levels are threatening Miami but they are going on like normal and still building new condos and skyscrapers. Looks like a nice city though to visit or move too, I'd love to not have to wear my jacket and wear shorts more.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#542
1. Self-driving cars are commonplace, but doesn't change anything except drunk driving goes down a lot 2. Major earthquake strikes West Coast, but doesn't change anything 3. At least one short recession 4. Putin drops out of power in Russia 5. Many famous people die of old age as the pop stars of the 60's and 70's reach their 80's and 90's. 6. India grows to the largest population country, Africa BOOMS 300% 7. 10 years worth of solar and EV progression happen, changing very little 8. The mob mentality finally causes some laws to be made around mob mentalities. 9. Carbon nanotubes/nanodes* are commercialized leading to the continuation of Moore's Law 10. Generation X takes control and we enter a long phase of apathy and minimal change.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#543
Ok i'm being a bit ambitious:

1. Nuclear fusion is closer to real use but not yet there

2. Due to battery capacity improvements: Drones flying humans around will be here

3. Drone packet delivery everywhere. When you look out over a city, you see a lot of drones going from A to B.

4. Car travel within city will be banned more and more in the Netherlands

5. Car travel on highway will contain 20% cars in autonomous mode. However autonomy in cities is still not everywhere.

6. The mission to Mars (settlement) is getting serious shape for 2020 - 2030. Visiting space is something rich people do (fly to see earth & back for 20.000 euro)

7. Travel across the world will be way faster, and go via space (SpaceX)

8. Health tracking using a wearable is recommend. Machine learning techniques will tell you when you should see a doctor. Healthy life styles are the trend. Alcohol is seen as bad on similar levels as smoking is now. However youngsters still drink a lot.

9. A economical depression will start, causing conflicts in different parts of the world.

10. Fuchsia will be on mobile phones. Apps dont need to be downloaded anymore, they can be run from the internet. Just like web pages, but on flutter technology.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#544
post #91

Dozens of cities in the US will seriously invest money and adopt new policies to become the "next Silicon Valley." One will reach Boston-level success. Probably in a Southern state along the East Coast. Fewer people with CS degrees, more inclusion of CS coursework across different degree programs. Going beyond 2030 to 2050, shopping malls outside of high-value cities will be abandoned, never repurposed, and become co…

I wish we had more cities with tech. Seems like Silicon Valley is still the #1 place for tech despite the cost of living and other issues. There's probably a lot of intelligent and smart people but disadvantaged due to poor location and who feel misplaced. However the rise of remote might change this too. I know some cities are pushing at getting fiber, so that might attract tech too. I know I keep hearing that Austin is the next Silicon Valley, but I feel like as the city grows, housing and other issues will come up just like San Francisco.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#545
A bunch of random predictions that I typed as they came to mind:

1. Google has a serious competitor in the search engine space, but it is from an already established corporation and not a new startup

2. An internet celebrity (i.e. fully-online career like a YouTuber) is elected leader of a major country

3. Windows drops 32-bit support

4. There still hasn't been a huge, crippling state-sponsored cyberattack. The rhetoric will remain as it is in 2020

5. Fake news is no more or less relevant/damaging than it is in 2020, but it will still be in the public consciousness

6. Similarly, deepfakes will be politically weaponized, but only a few people will fall for them, as they will be debunked the same way that fake news stories were debunked in the 2010s

7. Partly with the help of social media, several western countries will elect governments that explicitly identify as fascist or communist

8. As the developing world becomes more connected to the internet, userbases of popular websites will become more tilted toward countries like India and China

9. China will abandon its Great Firewall

10. The major players in the tech industry will not change. Google, Apple, Microsoft, et al. will still dominate, even as they attain increasingly negative press coverage and customer dissatisfaction. Silicon Valley will not be meaningfully disrupted until the 2030s

11. Internet privacy will become more politicized and more people will care about it as a result (i.e., as it ties into other beliefs and identities)

12. Internet-based cults will become prominent, possibly some as large as Scientology was in its heyday

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#546
post #263

- Nuclear power is more popular, especially small-scale, and climate change isn't really talked about any more in 2030 - Human genetic editing becomes mainstream; treating genetic diseases will become a cheap standard procedure; genetic enhancement is also becoming popular in China and South Korea and will be a hot political topic - Human lifespan can be increased by at least 20% with treatment - Most traditional car…

Of nuclear plants where ground is broken from 2020-2025, I predict that less than 10 percent will be in operation by 2030.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#547
As of Jan 1, 2030...

* Donald Trump won and served a second term as US President. He was succeeded by a democrat.

* Marijuana is legal in the United States.

* The EUR-USD exchange rate is lower than at any time in 2019 (or the EUR is no longer in circulation).

* China's per-capita GDP (at market exchange rates) is less than that of the US. Its total GDP is less than that of the US.

* Globally, the vast majority of vehicles being made are EVs.

* Globally, the portion of total primary energy supplied by fission is higher than in 2019. The portion supplied by fusion is zero.

* Satellite internet has largely replaced cable and cellular networks. SpaceX (or a spinoff) is the leading provider.

* Serverless architectures (lambda functions) are standard for backend development.

* It has been discovered that the holographic principle severely restricts general-purpose quantum computing. There's still a regime in which quantum computers are useful.

* In the US, the percentage of babies conceived by IVF is at least 3x higher than in 2019. Among these, screening for sex and intelligence is common, with females being preferred to males.

* Humans have walked on Mars.

* We have discovered alien life.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#548
- self driving cars: Improvements and advances, but not enough to handle the complexity of old European cities with their twisting roads and nonsensical street plans.

- quantum computing: We at least triple the qubit count. Maybe even quadruple. It's enough to do something of use, maybe even give "quantum supremacy" on one actual useful problem. Not much more than that, though.

- nuclear fusion: 2-4 "scientific breakthroughs". It remains a science project though. No commercially viable fusion power.

- AI: The hype dies out. AI won't change many things explosively, but it'll seep into everyday life andhaveabroad and profound impact. Medical diagnoses will be better, weather predictions, security, live tracking of people, etc. Most won't recognise it as AI.

- privacy. Technological advances will slow down, If only because there's not that much more to gain. Awareness will start to catch up and we will collectively wonder how to extricate ourselves from this dystopian hellhole we inflicted upon ourselves.

- society: Despite general feelings of "not ok", distribution of resources will skew further. The middle class will remain under pressure, for the simple reason that growth for the upper echelon cannot come from lower tiers. Yet middle class will continue to exist - a buffer between the have-nothings and the one-percenters.

- guns in the USA: The number of mass shootings will remain roughly equivalent to what it was in 2019. Growth is commensurate with population growth. Despite 3-5 high profile shootings a la Sandy Hook, the law won't be significantly more effective at preventing shootings.

- space: India and China will take the lead beyond low earth orbit.

- cancer: No great cancer breakthrough, just steadily continuing to chip away. By the end of the decade, 50% of new cancer patients can be converted into long-term treatment (5 yrs or more).

- climate change: The efforts in the coming decade are vastly insufficient. The only viable means of really combating climate change in the less-than-centuries time frame is significant reduction of population. (Over 25% decline in 10 years). Not sure if anyone has the balls to actually say that by then though.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#549
1. A huge recession like never before happening before 2025.

2. Facebook Libra becomes prevalent. Others (Google, Apple, Microsoft) follow to have their e-coins.

3. AR and/or VR is the smartphone of the 20s.

4. Facebook becomes the most valuable company in the world first to reach a 2T$ valuation.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#550
1. Intel will survive, but AMD will have the majority of the market, most of the time. Apple will try to invest in it’s own ARM workstation CPUs, but will eventually switch to AMD cores (licensed, used inside proprietary Apple’s chips).

2. Windows will still dominate desktops.

3. Quantum computers will stay approximately where they are today, expensive toys for scientists without practical applications.

4. Electric road vehicle sales will exceed gasoline ones; the major driver being developing countries. Couple global car brands emerge from these countries, likely Asian, like Xiaomi did.

5. US and China will come to some trade agreement and resume business as usual.

6. Russia will disintegrate once again, causing major global security headache because nukes.

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