I'm hitting 2 years after a massive layoff at my previous job. I've worked in more or less all the major languages and tech stacks doing fullstack web + cloud infra + desktop apps for startups in various sectors.
First year was an intentional "sabbatical" after never taking longer than a 1 week long vacation in seven years of full time SWE.
Second year... Well, I've applied to probably around 500 jobs this year, from the smallest to the largest companies, and I've gotten ONE video call interview. And as much as I would want to thank that one VP Eng at that one company for even interviewing me, after the interviewer directly told me that I aligned with what they were looking to hire for the role, and that I would be scheduled for technical interviews the next week, I ended up *ghosted*. Not even a rejection email.
Of my IRL SWE friends, I know many like myself who have been laid off and can't find new work (it seems like the longer the gap gets, the more it self-reinforcingly leads employers to think you're damaged goods); I know others who have been laid off and found new work within a month or two; and I know a few who are continuing to climb the comp ladder at big saas corps, seemingly completely unaffected by the job market.
The strangest thing to me about this wave of SWE unemployment is that it seems to be totally violative of supply and demand. Yes, I know that all SWE workers aren't equal fungible goods, but I would have thought that there are tiers or specializations inside of which there can be some rough supply and demand. Yet, I haven't gotten any lowball job offers - just complete lack of interest.
For past context, I didn't even have to apply for my last 2 jobs - a technical leader at each company (CTO, Dir Eng, etc) reached out to me unsolicited after finding my resume on a job board.