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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#531

Post by ben_w »

Fluorescence wrote: post #438
pjc50 wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a flamethrower drone video that circulates, used for clearing debris from power lines. And lots and lots of "DJI phantom with a grenade" videos from the Ukraine war. But not only does the gun drone not work very well, the drones are heavily tracked and dependent on radio links while there are thousands of people making sure that guns, even concealed ones, have a constitutional right to be in as many places as…

> heavily tracked As in the flights or the hardware? I've always thought drones would work well as ambush devices i.e. don't make a long flight to a target but stash within a few seconds of flight time. If it's the hardware then is there not much of a DIY scene anymore? I assumed the tech was mostly in the components e.g. cameras/motors/batteries rather than the integration. I'm not a drone person but when I cast my…

> I've always thought drones would work well as ambush devices i.e. don't make a long flight to a target but stash within a few seconds of flight time.

My immediate thought: "So… a missile?"

But on reflection, you're probably right. Just because missiles make more sense and have a long pile of R&D behind them, doesn't mean an amateur will pick that over the simple, easy, and obvious meme.

Probably for the best. It will be a bad day when someone, or some agency, makes anti-personnel missiles that can just be left waiting in nearby trees until the target goes past. I really really hope that such things would be treated like mines in international law.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#532

Post by defrost »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #508
garbageoverflow wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

interested in the article. would you like to share a link?

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53450688

Here in W.Australia we've been using solar powered signal repeaters along rail lines and mesa tops since the mid 1970's in the Pilbara mining industry.

Solar powered bores for farms in the wheatbelt and cattle country has been a regular feature for over a decade now.

The panels and batteries are better than ever now, but they've been Total Cost break even better than fossil fuel alternatives in remote Australia for a very long time (esp. factoring in need to travel to a bore to refuel, etc. Vs "it just works" (until it doesn't, but all solutions require upkeep)).

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#533

Post by kylehotchkiss »

Geopolitically - Stability will continue to wane as it has since the Afghani evacuation, while US will continue to remain somewhat the way it is despite presidential choice because we're geographically isolated and (nearly?) energy independent. We'll probably hit some records for crude oil and natural gas extraction. While we made an exciting discovery in the new medication for HIV, there doesn't appear to be an imminent innovation in the pipeline that will make a substantial dent in global health, global hunger, or infertility. The few people without smartphones will continue to migrate online, which doesn't mean what we'd call the internet, it's more WhatsApp, IG Reels, and TikTok. I guess I'm a little worried about the situation in Canada. Their government doesn't seem to a good way out of their current situation which blows my mind given the abundance of resources in the county. Their access to made in US weapons may become more of a pressing issue.

Tech - Continued iterations in AI lead to a smaller pool of people entering our field, creating a top-heavy distribution of senior engineers who don't have the same free time/ability to take on ambitious open source projects or start up businesses. Businesses in general don't have the same funds to sponsor React-sized projects. So a general slowdown in innovation pace. I can't really understand or imagine how people will enter the field, especially given that many CS degrees/bootcamps don't create career-ready developers.

Culturally - People will become more aware of the way companies like United Healthcare hold control over their lives and futures, and maybe push for the private insurance system to be something that they have more market choice over as opposed to selected by their employer.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#535

Post by WXLCKNO »

yunwal wrote: post #507
WXLCKNO wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't been following chess much, is there anyone in particular he would love his ranking to?

To be honest, the answer is probably "whoever happens to be in second place when Magnus falls off". Magnus has openly stated that he finds classical chess boring, stopped playing in the world championship due to the immense amount of prep required, and has started pushing for other formats (more blitz, Fischer random). I could see him just prepping less and losing his 20 point advantage by the end of the year. The 20…

Appreciate the detailed response!

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#537

Post by monkeydreams »

jasondigitized wrote: post #503
disambiguation wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1 for AI games. I'll add to it that we'll see more gamification of AI training as well. I.e your play data becomes training data.

Infinite side quests with AI are going to get wild.

I can't see how, not unless it is a 'AAA' always online game or if the quests are cached.

I think the most amazing use of AI in games (specifically RPGs) will be with statistical models to crunch "planning" and "cause and effect" to draw players into plots, schemes and storylines and then to demonstrate the impacts of success or failure of the player's quest. Think economic simulations of a city due to the player's actions or sabotage where the player has crippled a port leading to the NPCs barking about hunger, prices and disease.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#538

Post by dysoco »

Okay let's do a few just for fun, no real analysis behind these, just as a game:

* Trump will suffer from health issues and will step down for a period of time, raising overall concern.

* Milei's experiment in Argentina will not cause a disastrous collapse, but poverty and unemployment will be on the rise and his public image will deteriorate.

* A major tech company (possibly Google or Apple) will announce a wearable AI device, as the next step in computing after mobile phones. This will be met with skepticism.

* We will see AI being used in videogames to generate narratives, dialogues, etc. but not in AAA games, more in an experimental/indie fashion. These games will be very popular among streamers.

* A major terrorist event or plane accident will sadly occur that will shock the world, not massively like 9/11 but more in a MH370 or Sandy Hook sense.

* AI image and video generated images will become almost impossible to discern from real ones. Some minor chaos in social networks will ensure because of a fake Putin/Trump video or whatever. Countries will start to discuss regulating this more heavily, perhaps even IP banning access to certain services as a first measure.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#539

Post by dysoco »

ilrwbwrkhv wrote: post #2

I will start off with an uncommon one: Gambling addiction in kids is through the roof, sports betting, crypto betting, csgo skin betting. These are being openly advertised and we will start seeing the first major push towards stopping some of them. Some of the owners of the most uncommon Counterstrike skin gambling sites are making about $50 million a month.

I thought this was already happening everywhere. This is already happening in my country (Argentina) and just recently a law was voted (half chamber only) to not allow promoting gambling sites in football, game streams, etc.
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