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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
521–530 of 1001 posts
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#522The end of the social networking era as we know it. Many of the big giants from the 2000s - 2010s have pretty much peaked by now. TikTok is the thing everyone wants to be, but arguably its not a social networking app so much as a social entertainment app. You don't really connect with friends on it so much as with strangers. An endless stream of entertaining strangers. It's a lot more akin to YouTube than Instagram w…
> which are basically community spaces. These are primitive 2D games with videochat. These technologies existed for decades, it's naive to expect anything more from them than already exists. Changing the name to something more hyped will result in nothing more than a wave of hype.
I wouldn't discount something simply because the underlying technology has been around for decades. People said the same thing about Slack being nothing more than IRC. Didn't stop people from talking about how it was the future of work, or whatever.
For that reason, and many others, we really shouldn't ignore the amount of innovation in software and web that is largely design-oriented rather than engineering-oriented. A lot of venture-funded darlings out there are built on decades old technology, the key difference mostly being the design decisions that went into the product.
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#523The end of the US/NATO hegemony / The rise of a BRICS equilibrium
If this is true, what does it mean? China will invade Taiwan? What else?
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#524WWIV started, WWIII was the global war on terror. WWIV will be between major powers again. Better bring a hat!
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#525Living simply and for the better of others?
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#52680% of all USD have been printed since 2020. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
This is crazy big news and no one is talking about it.
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#527Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…
Rich people already have children who are more intelligent and attractive than average. They do this via mechanisms like “being intelligent enough to get rich, or at least not being stupid enough to go broke” and “being rich enough to marry hot people and have kids with them”. I don’t know if polygenetic testing is going to have a significant effect, but if it does, there is going to be a significant generation gap i…
My take is that a single trait - that is, capacity for delayed gratification - is responsible for the majority of wealth accumulated and probably majority of individuals who get rich in life. It doesn't take much else really. As long as you are not severely disadvantaged (have congenital disabilities, very low IQ etc), and live in a more or less stable country (no civil wars every 20 years), and you are good at delayed gratification, you will almost inevitably make it. It's only terribly bad luck (cancer, accidents, crime) that could stop you.
Most people think this is not the case only because media is not telling about it, because there is little to tell about really. Except extreme cases like https://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/29/janitor-secretly-amassed-an-...
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#528Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…
I don't think there is any genetic basis for intelligence: if there was, then you would expect that the offspring of the geniuses we had in the past to have an higher chance at being extremely intelligent than other people. But this doesn't seem to be the case, as you usually never hear about the sons or daughters of such geniuses, as they seem to be like other "normal" people in most cases. I admit I'm not bringing…
That's not how intelligence manifests. "Geniuses" are usually products of opportunity as much as anything. Indeed I am minded of a "where are they now" on british television of some University Challenge winners and despite being believed to be geniuses most of them had not done anything remarkable.
Intelligence definitely does have a genetic component - but again that isn't how genetics works. The "UN Man" Tabula Rasa doctrine is ideology, not science.
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#529From a customer perspective, people are wanting to retreat away from a lot of existing, global players. How many people would use something that's basically Amazon/Google/Facebook/Twitter as long as it isn't Amazon/Google/Facebook/Twitter?
The last decade was defined by being the one unicorn that could disrupt an entire industry, but those days are gone and we take it for granted that one company dominating a space isn't a norm. There aren't really more industries that are tech vs non-tech. In the next decade, more businesses will come online to disrupt and compete with tech company incumbents. Customer acquisition costs will go up and personas will become more nuanced.
Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
#530There’s a real possibility housing prices might go down or sideways for a decade or more. Between high interest rates, depopulation, government intervention regarding foreign investment, and new housing tech that makes older houses worth less, there may be a new normal in which residential real estate doesn’t appreciate for a long time.
It's absolutely possible that it's artificially high right now since it has risen so much. With a big jump, you can never tell whether it's the right amount, too little, or too much.
But fundamentally, supply is short due to years of falling behind on building it after the ~2008 mortgage crisis. It's going to take a really long time to catch up on that backlog. There's a relatively low maximum percentage you can increase the supply each year.
And now that mortgage rates are higher again and there are recession fears, investors may not be as excited about putting their money into housing construction. So we will have less of a push in the next few years to close that supply gap.
So I think the prices may fall or stagnate, but I doubt the bottom will fall out of real estate.
IMHO, another factor is that the pattern of development has changed. For a long time in the US, the pattern was sprawl, which presents few barriers to building huge amounts of housing because the land is cheap and maybe even in some unincorporated area with no red tape. Now, many people prefer density (or at least not sprawl), which means the housing that's in demand is more redevelopment and infill than giant new subdivisions. That's more tedious, more expensive, and more regulated, so it will happen more slowly. So another reason why supply is limited.