Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#521

Post by eitland » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:07 AM UTC

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

1 and 2:

Based on something like the Gartner Hype Cycle I will guess that we might be nearing something in 10 year. Or it might be that these things work in a 30-40 year cycle (based on observations of the last time AI was hot).

8:

For better (we can use languages that doesn't have more built in footguns than PHP) and for worse (openness of frontend will disappear) WASM will make Javascript unnecessary in the long run.

I'm kind of seasoned with JS - and a number of other languages - and the only real strength that JS has compared to TypeScript, C# and Java, language wise, is that it is ubiquitous.

Besides: if you get developers tp agree on a single stack in 10 years then you are dangerously good at negotiations and should spend your time in embassies not on HN;-)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#522

Post by gcpwnd » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:10 AM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #318

im3w1l wrote: post #194

In the spirit of the future is here just not evenly distributed: 1. Electric cars will go from niche for the rich to something for everyone. 2. Genetic testing will become even more commonplace and even more useful. 3. ipv6 will become dominant, but there may be holdouts. 4. Freezing your sperm / eggs / stem cells will become something everyone does. 5. Using a non-memory-safe language for servers will be seen as bui…

5. This is already true and was one of the motivations behind languages like Go and Rust.

This is about predictions not personal dreams.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#523

Post by prox » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:12 AM UTC

salt-licker wrote: post #476

1. LEO satellites will provide Internet access worldwide. About 90% of the world's population will be online by 2030. 2. Drastic climate engineering will become a mainstream research area and popular controversial talking point. 3. Many more people will get blood tests regularly, for early disease detection and fitness monitoring. Both a Theranos-like fingerprick device and a tampon-based screening company will IPO.…

If the fully AI musician is actually originally programmed as an Emergency Medical Hologram I agree.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#524

Post by Keverw » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:18 AM UTC

blakeburch wrote: post #430

cdoxsey wrote: post #374

Here's some 1. Civil war in China 2. A new, significant non iOS/Android OS in mobile 3. Uber/Lyft will gradually shift to a unionized, national taxi company 4. Nothing significant will be done about Climate Change, and it won't matter. Some new environmental issue will be talked about instead. 5. A third political party will become significant in the US 6. There will be a major Christian missionary movement from the…

>9. Commonplace purchases will increasingly be made with point-of-sale loans and/or monthly leases. This will increase economic disparity (rich people will buy stuff / get better rates, poor people will rent things / can never get ahead) Oh man. I didn't even think about it, but I think you hit the nail on the head with this one. Between more and more online retailers offering "Affirm" monthly payments for everyday i…

I seen an ad in my feed on Facebook where you could finance a toothbrush. Like the company was offering their own loan. However I think putting a toothbrush on a credit card you already use and pay off would be normal since more people are cashless, but a separate loan just for a toothbrush sounded insane to me. But maybe that's the future...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#525

Post by krak12 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:20 AM UTC

ZhuanXia wrote: post #492

1. 100 trillion parameter neural net is trained at the very end of the decade. May or may not be useful but I think this is mostly a problem of memory bandwidth and is doable with a minimal number of die shrinks. 2. I will take the under on SelfDrivingCars cars. Way too much pessimism here. The entire first wave of startups( save for TESLA and Comma) are using the same DARPA challenge codebase. New players using rein…

None in Europe will use any Chinese Social Network ever. I predict Europe will disappear and countries will take back the control of their manufacturing industry rellying less and less on Chinese exports.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#526

Post by swfsql » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:22 AM UTC

Everything will go backwards as many effort will be spent on dealing with the consequences of all malinvestment from the beginning of the last century until now, which includes the accumulated debt that countries made. This will be a lost decade.

Also, Bitcoin at 100 million dollars per unit.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#527

Post by hobabaObama » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:23 AM UTC

Bitcoin becomes the goto currency for the world.

More open conflicts between China and the US (potentially serious).

Twitter / Facebook era ends and replace with something else.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#528

Post by bvda » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:24 AM UTC

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

7. any explanation why it would be caused by complexity of everyday life?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#529

Post by collyw » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:24 AM UTC

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

6 is an interesting one.

How do you see a culture of offliners developing when they can't organise by social media?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#530

Post by collyw » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:26 AM UTC

safog wrote: post #306

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

I think these predictions are way too safe, to the point that they aren't predictions at all. These are all very widely accepted views already (in the tech community / HN atleast) which explains why this comment is top currently.

The first two, autonomous cars and AI hype are pretty much the opposite of most of HN's opinion.