Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#511

Post by Retric » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:11 AM UTC

lmm wrote: post #504

ethbro wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Economic depression and deprivation also causes death, and staggering amounts of human misery. Let's quantify things here, for a first world country with a social net. On the one hand, we have people getting evicted from their homes and having to visit soup kitchens. On the other hand, we have dead people (more likely, dead poor people). Evil seems pretty fair.

> On the one hand, we have people getting evicted from their homes and having to visit soup kitchens. Which translates directly into many years of reduced life expectancy, no?

I have trouble seeing a worse economy for a few months vs a highly optimistic 100,000+ dead having similar numbers of lost lives.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#512

Post by saalweachter » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:12 AM UTC

dTal wrote: post #507

henrikschroder wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The point is that when you are talking loss numbers in the trillions The main part of my argument above is that you pulled that number out of your ass, you didn't address any of my points against why that number is baseless, yet you continue using the number. Your number is a worst-case "cost" of doing absolutely nothing and just letting people die, and then you say that your suggested strategy of dumping cash on t…

>letting the virus spread uncontrolled through the not at risk population Sounds excellent. Did we remember to tell the virus?

Or at the very least, to divide the UK into two non-interacting populations of at-risk and not-at-risk individuals?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#513

Post by daxfohl » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:12 AM UTC

edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

"Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM"

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#514

Post by BubRoss » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:17 AM UTC

henrikschroder wrote: post #483

BubRoss wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there any examples of countries isolating vulnerable people (elderly, obese, breathing problems, smokers)? It doesn't seem like that is actually viable at all.

It's an explicit part of the UK's strategy, it's been pointed out throughout this thread. Also, why would that be less viable than locking down all of society the way for example Italy has done?

Yeah, I know that's the UK strategy, that's why I asked if there are any examples of it being done, because it doesn't seem plausible to me. For starters if everyone is out getting infected rapidly, who will be taking care of the vulnerable people?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#515

Post by BubRoss » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:19 AM UTC

aygthrwy wrote: post #494

BubRoss wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most parents that have young children aren't in their 70s

But they have parents who are. Maybe in UK this works, different cultures have different degrees of socialization between adult children and their parents.

I'm not sure what your point is here, the comment I replied to said that many of the parents of kids will get infected and die.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#516

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:23 AM UTC

hedora wrote: post #465

necovek wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3. the immunity gained through an infection holds for a long enough time (how long would need to be checked with the infection rate), which we do not know yet Additionally, we know nothing of the long term effects even for the "young and healthy". Mortality rates for people 10-39 is 0.2%, 40-49 it's at 0.4%, 50-59 1.3%, 60-69 at 3.6%. Serious conditions develop in a bigger proportion of cases, so you are looking at 4…

> unknown long term effects Ultimately, it’s a just a really inconsistent cold. The vast majority of cases are mild. However, if it spreads to the lungs, it’s worse than the flu. As far as I know, there’s no evidence that it’s any more exotic than that.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#517

Post by Gatsky » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:27 AM UTC

edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

I think you can draw a direct line between the personality of Johnson and adoption of this strategy.

Covid19 will unfortunately kill a lot of people. As a silver-lining, it may also kill populism.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#518

Post by CyanBird » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:30 AM UTC

ash wrote: post #408

knzhou wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the models the government's epidemiologists are using explicitly don't account for all possible actions. Back when this was taking off in China, a bunch of epidemiologists came out and said it was completely uncontrollable there. They were wrong, because they hadn't accounted for the extreme actions the Chinese government was willing to take; it was not even a possibility in the models. The same story repeate…

We don't know yet how sustainable Chinese actions are. People are still in lockdown. Covid19 could come back when the lockdown is relaxed.

You are missing the fact that it doesnt matter if it "comes back" or not, what matters is that the rate at which it "returns" doesnt overflood the healthcare systems.

This idea, UK policy makes hae will absolutely collapse the NHS.... But who knows, maybe that's their idea all along, to collapse the NHS, and after this is done, they will start passing laws to "reform it" and sell it by the kilo to US private healthcare firms....

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#519

Post by idoh » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:31 AM UTC

ThePhysicist wrote: post #326

cirrus-clouds wrote: post #135

Here is a discussion on Channel 4 on the approach taken by the UK government. https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=590 Debating are: - John Edmunds: a professor in the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Tomas Pueyo: his modelling of the pandemic has gone viral on the web: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... During the debate,…

Wow, Tomas Pueyo is a self proclaimed „growth hacker“ with no experience in epidemiology. I would prefer to have people weigh in on the issue that actually have more than two weeks experience in this. Everyone can have good ideas but giving people like Pueyo a platform for their self marketing must be an insult for all real experts that work on these issues.

It's so crazy seeing him pop up like this. I used to work with Tomas on viral facebook apps like Astrology and Birthday Cards. Obviously working on viral apps is not the same as epidemiology and growth hacking.

He was quite a character to work with, and I'm not sure how to put this .. on the one hand his doc seems more or less correct and it's good that he was able to present things in a way that drove action, but on the other hand like you allude to one shouldn't necessarily believe things about epidemiology just because he's saying it.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#520

Post by lazylizard » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 3:34 AM UTC

RareSoft wrote: post #247

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. The best case scenario is that restrictions are introduced, and they work so well that people complain that they were unnecessary. And remember folks, when it comes to exponential growth, the best time to act was yesterday.

The issue with that approach though is how do you effectively prevent reinfection of the region when all counter measures are suspended? Another carrier could reinfect the region again and all that previous work came to nothing.

By contact tracing, quarantine of people who are suspect, and social distancing.

Look at taiwan , singapore, hong kong, macau. You can totally slow it down to a reasonable number of new cases daily such that the hospitals can handle. Just don't start like wuhan, iran, italy...