Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#511

Post by MperorM » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 7:38 AM UTC

These are the predictions that I think go against the norm, where I think it's most likely someone would take up a bet with me. Otherwise it would just be a list of "things largely stay the same, and things people predict will happen wont"

1.) UK's Brexit is an economic success, leading to a boom in Britain's tech sector and a modernized efficient state.

2.) Concerns about climate change will be a driver for terrible policy, further stifling the European economy.

3.) Probably not this decade, but it might happen near its end: Many European nations have their own vote leave, Denmark among others leave the union.

4.) The colonization of mars begins. By 2030 there is still no humans living on mars, but machines are shipped off to mars to start building the colony in which humans eventually will.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#512

Post by jowday » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 7:39 AM UTC

kibwen wrote: post #233

1. As a result of worsening urban/rural political divide, the inhabitants of cities will start to believe they have more in common with fellow urbanites from different nations than with ruralites from their own nation. Major cities will begin to engage in diplomacy with each other directly and, probing the limits of their sovereignty, engage in informal treaties and lightweight alliances (of an economic and social so…

Hasn't #1 been the case for most of European and American high society for quite a while?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#513

Post by legulere » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 7:41 AM UTC

MperorM wrote: post #511

These are the predictions that I think go against the norm, where I think it's most likely someone would take up a bet with me. Otherwise it would just be a list of "things largely stay the same, and things people predict will happen wont" 1.) UK's Brexit is an economic success, leading to a boom in Britain's tech sector and a modernized efficient state. 2.) Concerns about climate change will be a driver for terrible…

I have a counter-prediction: the UK will leave the EU but join it again this decade and adopt the euro.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#514

Post by perceptronas » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 7:45 AM UTC

* Individualism and philosophy rises

* Solutions for privacy by default (like fake profiles or something entirely different)

* World is not destroyed/changed much from today by climate change

* Pollution is at half of what it is today

* Russia becomes more open/democratic

* We go through a recession

* New company rises to the top tech giants

* Software becomes fast again

* Masses start to understand that no system is safe from hacking due some bigger accident

* Bitcoin continues to rise slowly

* Computers won't get much faster than they are today

* Webassembly and DRMs rise up

* Virtual DOM is part of w3c spec

* RoR and similar frameworks come back as they are faster to develop and work better for certain use cases

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#515

Post by Paperweight » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 7:45 AM UTC

Unikernels will be all the rage

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#516

Post by gokhan » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 7:47 AM UTC

- Microsoft will start pushing hard for it in a couple of years and Edge will be the default browser of choice in 10 years. It will have state of the art surveillance prevention and ad blocking. It will visually guess where the ads are perfectly, so that even ads served directly from the 1st party domain will be blocked.

- Google will loose significant revenue and will start laying off people after 2025. Will focus back on having good search results instead of the crap we have today, but it will not be enough to keep it afloat during 2030's.

- There will be a Gmail competitor.

- Apple will buy DuckDuckGo.

- There will be a dominant WebAssembly framework with support for different languages where all web applications will be written on (as .Net, but not .Net). JS usage will shrink to lightweight content pages.

- After 7yo becomes ~13yo, PG will go back to YC. Also will write a book that will be a bestseller for non-technical / non-startup audience.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#517

Post by Animats » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 7:54 AM UTC

1. At least one major US city will be substantially destroyed due to climate change. Probably Miami, Galveston, or New Orleans. It will not be fully rebuilt. (Much like Puerto Rico and Key West).

2. Self-driving cars will arrive, but as a niche product for senior communities. (Like Google's slow bubble car.)

3. Amazon will finally get robotic picking working, and their warehouse employment will start to drop.

4. Somebody will build a 3nm fab, but it won't be a mainstream technology due to cost.

5. Big recession in US. House prices drop. San Francisco empties out again, like 2001 and 2008.

6. No major breakthrough in battery technology, but battery cost drops at least 50% due to volume increases.

7. New space probes to Luna and Mars, maybe Venus and Europa, but no manned activity beyond low earth orbit.

8. Artificial meat takes off in a big way, especially in China.

9. Parts of India become too hot to be inhabitable. Deaths in the hundreds of thousands. Fires in Australasia become a huge problem. California spends enough money to deal with its fires.

10. VC funds as a class lose money over the decade.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#518

Post by meddlepal » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 7:59 AM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #247

kibwen wrote: post #233

1. As a result of worsening urban/rural political divide, the inhabitants of cities will start to believe they have more in common with fellow urbanites from different nations than with ruralites from their own nation. Major cities will begin to engage in diplomacy with each other directly and, probing the limits of their sovereignty, engage in informal treaties and lightweight alliances (of an economic and social so…

Thanks for posting 2. I see software as the new legal profession. We will be the next victims of automation we are writing. Already, I bet a solid 75% of enterprise developers could be made redundant with managed services. There is diminishing need for startups. I have never been less optimistic about the field. This is just after waves and waves of CS graduates are entering the market and most indicators are pointin…

The future is in integration of all those managed services and dealing with legacy decisions...

I'm still optimistic, but we'll see.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#519

Post by negamax » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:00 AM UTC

This decade will see stagnation and fall of Google and Amazon as new entrants replace them. Not sure by what but public will binge on something else instead of instant information and shopping.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#520

Post by garganzol » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 8:03 AM UTC

1. Rust will gradually become a top language for native development

2. C will remain, but it is role will be gradually diminished to a nice-to-read somewhat portable assembler code

3. C# will be poisoned by a bulk of badly thought out features that will gradually turn the language into catastrophic cacophony

4. .NET will gradually loose its appeal for new developments due to its removal from the OS

5. Apple looses the remaining tropes of innovation and fades away in the second half of decade

6. macOS market share will shrink to 2% by the end of the decade