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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#501

Post by yunwal »

someothherguyy wrote: post #202
WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizatio...

That transcript for a podcast or whatever states there is demand, not a signal that there is a trend toward significantly higher wages or that employment is growing. There are very different business constraints for hiring software developers vs all skilled tradespeople.

> not a signal that there is a trend toward significantly higher wages

It wouldn't be a prediction if it was already true

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#502

Post by laidoffamazon »

magic_smoke_ee wrote: post #199

- (90%) US accelerated inflation - (75%) US marked increase in military-industrial complex spending, perhaps $800B/y - (70%) US hollows-out functional regulators necessary for safety, growth, and industry - (65%) US recession spring-summer 2025 - (50%) US major cyberattack crippling infrastructure - (45%) US austerity cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security

I don’t see cuts to Medicare or SS. Medicaid will be gutted though.

Also skeptical of a 2025 recession. Likelihood increases by a lot in 2026 though.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#503

Post by jasondigitized »

disambiguation wrote: post #477
idiot_predictor wrote: post #165

* One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons) * LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and…

+1 for AI games. I'll add to it that we'll see more gamification of AI training as well. I.e your play data becomes training data.

Infinite side quests with AI are going to get wild.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#504

Post by Mordisquitos »

cm2187 wrote: post #434
Mordisquitos wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's true but apart from Poland, all large EU countries have anaemic weapon production and diverted all their military spending into social programs decades ago, which they cannot reverse. I would say that is a half-truth. You are right that Poland is an outlier in the EU with regards to its military expenditure and preparation. However, the idea that it is because military spending in other countries was "divert…

No the transfer of defense spending to social spending was an explicit policy in the 80s/90s, that was refered at the time as "the peace dividends". And the fact that it is diverted into social spendings is also significant, because it is a kind of public spending that is politically impossible to cut back. Even Trump doesn't want to touch that third rail in the US. France's military spending, though not as low as ma…

> No the transfer of defense spending to social spending was an explicit policy in the 80s/90s, that was refered at the time as "the peace dividends".

The idea of "Peace dividend" at no point implied a dichotomy between social spending and military spending. It was referring to the purported trade-off between military spending and the economy as a whole, in all of its aspects: the taxation or public debt needed to maintain a strong military, civilian workforce vs military manpower, civilian industry vs military industry, and yes, military vs civilian government expenditure — of which "social" spending is just one of many.

Note that the idea of the "Peace dividend" was popularised by George H.W. Bush and Margaret Thatcher, hardly proponents of increased social spending.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_dividend

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#505

Post by wombat-man »

yunwal wrote: post #496
wombat-man wrote: post #493

Hawk Tuah girl is charged for crypto rug pull scam Investment continues in AI, but the tech industry continues to mature. Stable growth and profits, but the lack of rapid expansion is going to feel like decline. It continues to be a stiff job market. Ukraine fighting still continues, but funding/arms sources for Ukraine shift to be more European. Trump tax cuts expire. The margins in congress are a lot tighter this t…

> Hawk Tuah girl is charged for crypto rug pull scam What crime could she possibly be charged with? Did she make any statements that weren't true about it? It's still not SEC regulated, so there's no avenue there. Also AFAICT she didn't even have a financial interest in the coin beyond being paid to promote it.

Things could change under the new administration, but the SEC considers crypto to be securities: https://www.investopedia.com/crypto-regulations-for-financia...

She promoted it. Did she disclose why? https://www.npr.org/2023/03/22/1165477713/lindsay-lohan-jake...

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#506

Post by throwawaywilson »

Let me begin by saying that this is a throwaway account and I'll be logging out without saving the password right after I finish this post, so if you want to ask questions or debate anything I say, you'll be waiting a very long time for a reply from me. This is for my benefit, as my doctor has suggested that I spend less time arguing with people on the Internet who are obviously wrong.

Also, it may be instructive to go through previous years' prediction threads and see how many of those predictions were accurate. You'll probably be able to count them without taking off your shoes.

All that said, here are my predictions:

* At least one of the top-tier companies doing GenAI research (e.g. MS, Google, or OpenAI) will cut their losses and shut down said program. If it's OpenAI, that's probably also the end of the company. Nvidia's market cap will come back down to earth.

* The mainstream Democratic party will, yet again, decide that they lost the 2024 Presidential election due to insufficiently catering to conservatives, and will once again decide on a strategy of "triangulation" in the years to come. This will continue to lose them elections.

* Statements and/or behavior of more elected Federal officials (meaning the president or a member of either house of Congress) will make it obvious to the general public that said officials are suffering from major cognitive decline, presumably from advancing dementia due to old age.

* More corporate executives in unpopular industries such as defense, banking, fossil fuels, or health insurance again, will be assassinated now that the idea is in people's heads. The only thing that surprised me about the Brian Thompson case is that it took this long. At least a significant minority of said assassins will walk due to jury nullification or eyewitnesses refusing to testify.

* 2025 will be the hottest year on record, until 2026 tops it.

* Cooperation between Musk and Trump won't last due to no room in the world being large enough to fit both those egos. Trump will find himself sidelined in his own administration and left to sulk and watch TV.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#507

Post by yunwal »

WXLCKNO wrote: post #473
0x00cl wrote: post #442

Lets get creative - There will be a "Predictions for 2026" thread. (Hehehe) - OpenAI announces GPT-5 will be the last model of the GPT-n series (As in they won't release a GPT-6) - Apple will sell a backpack (With some sort of technology included of course) - Magnus Carlsen will lose his 1st place in the FIDE top ranking. ("He has held the No. 1 position in the FIDE world chess rankings since 1 July 2011") - E.T. wil…

I haven't been following chess much, is there anyone in particular he would love his ranking to?

To be honest, the answer is probably "whoever happens to be in second place when Magnus falls off". Magnus has openly stated that he finds classical chess boring, stopped playing in the world championship due to the immense amount of prep required, and has started pushing for other formats (more blitz, Fischer random). I could see him just prepping less and losing his 20 point advantage by the end of the year.

The 2024 world champion Gukesh Dommaraju made a pretty huge leap this year, is only 18 years old (youngest world champion of all time), has a really unique playing style, and is likely to continue improving next year, so it's possible he'll run away with it, but I think it's unlikely. At the top levels right now, a lot of the ELO distinction comes down to finding ways to consistently dominate players that are slightly worse than you, and Gukesh doesn't seem to be optimizing for that.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#508

Post by HDThoreaun »

garbageoverflow wrote: post #491
HDThoreaun wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a piece about how abundant solar in rural Afghanistan strengthened the Taliban as poppy and therefore opium production skyrocketed because they were able to install electric wells.

interested in the article. would you like to share a link?

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53450688

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#509

Post by Yoric »

Xen9 wrote: post #423
Yoric wrote: post #268

We progressively advance towards Cyberpunk: - governments around the world proceed with bowing to megacorps/cults/mobs; - entire jobs disappear to AI [1], people are told that they "just need to" learn a new job, at the age of 50+; - money is further diverted from fundamental research and towards AI, because governments and private institutions are convinced that AI will magically solve the world's problems; - AGI re…

The world is cyberpunk. Has been since 1990s.

Well, in the 90s, cyberpunk was a parody.

But of course, a few too many people took it as an instruction manual, so yes, by now, we're basically there.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#510

Post by throwmeaway2024 »

fph wrote: post #349
throwmeaway2024 wrote: post #45

"Hybrid WW3" continues. Russia advances most everywhere in the proxy politics space (perhaps paradoxically except Syria.) Western economies continue on their troll-induced march to self-implosion. The defamation attacks on their Comparative Advantage industries intensify, particularly: - Non-Musk Big Tech / AI - Non-Musk aerospace (=> Boeing) - Wall Street / non-crypto finance - Non-Musk automotive - Hollywood Immigr…

I'm a young whippersnapper, but how is the current state of affairs more "WW3" than what happened in Vietnam and Korea? To me it seems we're back to cold war.

Russia is a hell of a lot closer to world domination than it was in 1950 or 1970. If anything, the prior "peak" was in 1945, when Stalin failed to call Truman's bluff [1]. Parenthetically, the Haberdasher is the unsung hero of the eight-ish decades of Pax Americana.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_Totality

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