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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#501

Post by muttled »

Chris_Newton wrote: post #101

I wonder what the future holds for WebAssembly. If it doesn’t really catch on and just ends up being mostly (ab)used for nefarious purposes, I can imagine the major browsers dropping support in a few years. They did with technologies like Flash and Java applets before, and those had had much wider adoption previously. On the other hand, if someone comes up with a good programming language for modern Web-style applica…

I wonder if the Ethereum merge (moving away from mining) will cause a drop in that misuse? I know a lot of the abuse are hidden crypto miners. There's going to be so much computing power shifting to the other coins (dropping the ROI) that there won't be much worth mining that can be done in the browser.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#502

Post by yunohn »

ColanR wrote: post #410
youngNed wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this 'people are rich because they are smart' is not a take i expected to find on HN. Its not quite as damaging as 'people are rich because they work harder' but its really not far off

To me it falls in a similar category as how highly intelligent people are less likely to be overweight. I think that with intelligence comes a better sense of how to control oneself. Ever seen the stats on how often lottery winners end up going broke? Not that many people have the capacity and knowledge to control their emotions with their reason. Being wealthy is not a question of making money, it's a question of ke…

If you’re going to use that example, surely you’ve heard of “wealth barely lasts 3 generations”? Surely smart gene rich people could sustain it indefinitely?

More - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/generational-wealth%3A-why-d...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#503

Post by GTP »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

I don't think there is any genetic basis for intelligence: if there was, then you would expect that the offspring of the geniuses we had in the past to have an higher chance at being extremely intelligent than other people. But this doesn't seem to be the case, as you usually never hear about the sons or daughters of such geniuses, as they seem to be like other "normal" people in most cases. I admit I'm not bringing any data to back my claim, but it seems to me that having a genius as a parent doesn't really change your chance at being more intelligent than average. You also have to consider that many breakthroughs in history weren't just the result of intelligence, but also being the right person at the right time in the right place played a big role.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#504

Post by mongol »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #405
c7DJTLrn wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically this could all be happening because a lack of nukes. Ukraine gave theirs away and have been left essentially naked and defenceless since. Would Putin have thought twice if they had a nuclear arsenal? Who knows.

Ukraine didn't have the codes to use them.

As long as they could have taken the warheads apart, they could have built new weapons out of them. Or for that matter, just starting from already enriched fissile material would be plenty.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#505

Post by muttled »

Dylovell wrote: post #21
enos_feedler wrote: post #14

I believe the next big thing will be the productization of building a home anywhere, without requiring municipal infrastructure. There is still a ways to go in terms of technology to make it all happen and make it affordable. But at some point, it will really reconfigure where and how we all live.

This is something I have been think about for the past 10 year as well. If we can get enough cheap power production, incinerating toilets seem interesting. And the growth satellite internet is a big win for this area.

And then we have companies like Space Mobile trying to essentially put cell phone towers in low earth orbit which will (hopefully) enable 4G/5G coverage all over the globe.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#506

Post by DennisP »

kurthr wrote: post #215
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

Is there a reason you assume people won't simply charge at night with relatively standard 240V (or even 120V) chargers? Most cars don't average more than 60 miles a day, which is less than 20kWh. In much of the US you could install 10-15 solar panels to do that even in the winter. Now solar panels are mostly made in China (as are almost all consumer electronics), but that seems like a far more general problem to solv…

That does add the cost of a 20kWh external battery for each car.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#507

Post by Bjorkbat »

blackoil wrote: post #499
emehex wrote: post #347

I'm not sure enough people are talking about Demographics and population decline, especially with respect to China. Some experts [1] predict that China's population in 2050 will be HALF of what it is today! [1] https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-xi-jinping-economics-...

Way to many people work on filler jobs that will go away and automation will also solve a lot of the problems. China has about 22% people working in agriculture, that will go down a lot over next two decades.

I wouldn't count on that. Sure, you can see increased productivity through farm automation, but that assumes that the farmer can afford said tools. Those that can might be able to grow more crops on less land, but they might be too preoccupied with paying the farm loan to go around buying-out their neighbors.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#509

Post by [deleted] »

GTP wrote: post #503
ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

I don't think there is any genetic basis for intelligence: if there was, then you would expect that the offspring of the geniuses we had in the past to have an higher chance at being extremely intelligent than other people. But this doesn't seem to be the case, as you usually never hear about the sons or daughters of such geniuses, as they seem to be like other "normal" people in most cases. I admit I'm not bringing…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#510

Post by rocket_surgeron »

maverick74 wrote: post #237
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

>Batteries degrade too fast

What is "too fast"?

Much of the fear about battery degradation was from projections and warranty terms at the very beginning of modern EV deployments.

Real world observations have shown the battery packs maintaining >85% of their capacity after 150,000mi/241,000km.

Also, battery components aren't rare. They're called "rare" because they are not found in large centralized deposits but rather spread somewhat uniformly throughout the earth. They are actually some of the more abundant elements on earth. For every two atoms of silicon on earth, there is almost one of lithium, which makes it much more abundant than hydrocarbons. If battery component extraction was subsidized to the degree hydrocarbon extraction is, they would be much less expensive, and more available on the market, than hydrocarbons.

>-if you get into a crash your Battery will most likely be affected - which means you will probably have to spend almost the price of a new vehicle

The battery makes up approximately 1/3rd the price of a new EV. As anyone who has had to pay for auto repair can attest, labor is almost always the main cost. It is inconceivable to me that replacing a battery and motors is more costly than an engine, except due to a shortage of qualified personnel commanding higher hourly rates. There is a video on YouTube of an elderly wheelchair-bound man completely rebuilding a Nissan Leaf battery pack in a workshop so I have no doubts that it is a skill that can be taught to any able-bodied person who is willing to learn.

As far as battery recycling goes, they're working on it: https://www.ornl.gov/news/automated-disassembly-line-aims-ma...

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