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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

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51–60 of 219 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#52
post #8

YouTube will be so inundated by AI cat and dog videos that people stop watching them altogether. People will automatically assume anything labeled "cute" is fake.

My mom sends me AI videos of cute cats doing the impossible (flying around the room, washing raccoons, etc). When I told her they were AI, she said “so what, they’re cute”

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#53
post #37

I predict certain political factions in the US will spend much of 2026 looking for ways to introduce a delay in the 2028 elections, such as pursuing a war so that Congress can postpone elections until they can be held safely. Which has never happened before, but who knows what absurdities will be given the OK these days?

We had elections during the civil war, 0.000001% chance the 2028 elections get changes.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#54
People's minds will become even lazier due to prolonged daily use of LLMs. They literally won't be able to think for themselves without AI assistance (that's why OpenAI won't fall, btw). Attention spans will drop even lower, causing severe psychological problems. Think 'Digital Dementia 2.0.'

Later, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their kinds not to do so.

Leetcode is already standard for SWE interviews, but other industries will need to adopt similar tests to verify that an applicant's brain is functioning correctly and that they're capable of doing the job. Maybe a formal confirmation from a psychologist specializing in 'fried brains' will be required.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#55
post #53
post #37

I predict certain political factions in the US will spend much of 2026 looking for ways to introduce a delay in the 2028 elections, such as pursuing a war so that Congress can postpone elections until they can be held safely. Which has never happened before, but who knows what absurdities will be given the OK these days?

We had elections during the civil war, 0.000001% chance the 2028 elections get changes.

That was the civil war, maybe in 2026 the uncivil one begins. (But I think it will just be a more general unravelling.)

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#56
post #29

Significant economic turmoil. Either from private debt or AI finally deflating. Probably due to enough data center projects that won't materialize due to funding getting cut.

More likely from the government attempts to manipulate mid-term elections in the US, and the instability that will follow. And I hope I'm wrong.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#57

People's minds will become even lazier due to prolonged daily use of LLMs. They literally won't be able to think for themselves without AI assistance (that's why OpenAI won't fall, btw). Attention spans will drop even lower, causing severe psychological problems. Think 'Digital Dementia 2.0.' Later, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their…

You do know this reads the same as every pessimistic commentary on technology ever, right? So many people were convinced that television was going to fry our brains.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#59
My prediction: 2026 looks normal.

AI stays the top story but in a boring way as novelty wears off and models get cheaper and faster (maybe even more embedded). No AGI moment. LLMs start feeling like databases or cloud compute.

No SpaceX or OpenAI IPO moment. Capital markets quietly reward the boring winners instead. S&P 500 grinds out another double digit year, mostly because earnings keep up and alternatives still look worse. Tech discourse stays apocalyptic, but balance sheets don't.

If you mute politics and social media noise, 2026 probably looks like one of those years that we later remember as "stable" in retrospect.

Bonus: Bitcoin sees both 50k and 150k.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#60
post #44
post #22

- EVs will be in the Early Majority group, and 2/3 of them will be Chinese. At least 1 in 4 of new cars purchased will be EVs. - AI will innovate towards visuals, personality, and tool use. AI tool use will start to innovate past just reading docs, maybe into more things like gaming and robotics. - Some AI products (not necessarily LLMs) will start competing on latency. Notably on voice/calls, but also things like dr…

I think EVs will head in the complete opposite direction in that sales will slow down and they will continue to be a minority. Ford just killed off the F150 lightning and EVs (but also new cars) are still expensive purchases in a time with a lot of economic uncertainty. While Chinese companies are making affordable options all the markets seem to love putting tariffs on them in order to keep their homegrown automaker…

Looking into this, this reinforces my predictions? I looked up the Ford F-150 Lightning and a quote catches my eye: "When the electric truck debuted in 2022, Russia had just invaded Ukraine, disrupting supplies of nickel, a key material in EV batteries."

Raw materials and cost is a big part of the Chinese dominance on EVs and it'll continue to be on that side of the political sphere.

Having to tariff China also emphasizes that they're gaining ground too quickly. They process about (over?) 80% of the major parts, so you can't fully tariff them either, only assembled cars or some parts.

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