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Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

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Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#51

Post by komodus »

komodus wrote: post #50

Ten years Water wheels for a start, then dams, hydroelectric power and industrial revolution around the corner in just a year. Then ethanol/corn fueled engines and we'll be sailing/flying in no time. Trains will go electric right away instead of steam/diesel/gas. A small country with smart people and good leadership would easily build the first computer and nuclear bomb in less than a decade. From there, world domina…

To expand a bit more, energy is the fuel of civilization, since we won't have oil at surface level and solar won't be possible without panels, we should concentrate in generating hydroelectric power from rivers that will still be there. With unlimited power everything else is just as easy to rebuild.

Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#52

Post by flashgordon »

Tade0 wrote: post #29

The first amplifying vacuum tube was patented in 1908 and you could produce a crude computer from that, even if terribly inefficient. I imagine civilisation would wind back to around the 18th century, because we would understand things like fertilizers, calculus and how to make steel, but could not immediately use that knowledge to produce steam trains, bicycles or saxophones. So, assuming an accelerated pace of deve…

Also in the event of an apocalypse - the first generation could have all the awareness of technology, knowledge etc but the people who are experts may die out? Even if experts exist the transfering of what to build into "how" to build may need a lot of nurturing - Eg a chip-design expert knows it all - but may not be an expert in building a fab (not even considering the resources needed) to build this chip. But in the world where survival is paramount chip-design is just now a luxury skill and very few incentives exist to urgently preserver/pass down this knowledge? My guess is if apocalypse doesnt turn into anarchy and a rort, you need stability and peace during which technological experimentation/building to florish. SO yeah 50-100 years seems reasonable.

Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#53

Post by throwaway11460 »

lm28469 wrote: post #38

Apocalypse as in complete destruction ? We're fucked, there isn't enough easily accessible fossil fuel for a new industrial revolution, this is our only shot.

There is enough fuel if we are smart about it. Grow trees, process into woodgas, reuse old infrastructure. Add other kinds of biogas into the mix. Use old hydro ponds and rivers too. Geothermal where it's available. Wind generators are trivial to build. Solar thermal energy can give a lot for relatively minimal engineering effort.

And then some time after the apocalypse - nuclear energy. If the knowledge is preserved and security/regulatory standards lowered, the engineering itself is not too complicated. It's likely that some of the old nuclear reactors would survive the apocalypse.

Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#54

Post by throwaway11460 »

lm28469 wrote: post #48
LeoPanthera wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "solar panel" does not have to be a photovoltaic panel. A much simpler panel can heat water to use in a steam turbine.

We probably wouldn't even be able to source iron ore at that stage, let alone process it to make any kind of useful turbine, but let's say you make a working steam turbine from wood and clay, a DIY solar powered steam turbine is quite a few steps before modern CPU

Depending on your location, there are places where you can't not find iron. Recycle! Civilization might be lost but all that processed and purified iron didn't disappear, it's just hiding under some dirt.

Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#55

Post by throwaway11460 »

someonehere wrote: post #12

I had this same thought before Y2K. All the hype around it I wondered if there’s tech stashed away somewhere safe and out of reach from global catastrophes like EMPs or other types of world events. I can guarantee governments have tech stashed somewhere on earth or in space. It’s the most logical way to ensure in an event like that, that those governments can restart and be ahead of everyone else in that event.

I had my large box of older microelectronics wrapped in some layers of aluminum foil to make a fun postapo party thingy. Still have it wrapped. There's hundreds of CPUs there, few full PC computers, hard drives and CDs with Windows XP, Linux and DOS, and a lot of microcontrollers + related components.

Don't scavenge raid me please, I am open to trade.

Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#56

Post by gmuslera »

Define apocalypse, in the terms of what will remain at the very least. All technology (including discarded old computers) will be unusable? All digital media will be erased? All printed books (specially the IT ones) will be burned down? All the people with present knowledge of those and related technologies will die out, or the time of recovery to think about building back will be too far into the future?

Anyway, can’t stop thinking in the Delorean’s chip of Back to the Future 3.

Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#57

Post by lm28469 »

throwaway11460 wrote: post #53
lm28469 wrote: post #38

Apocalypse as in complete destruction ? We're fucked, there isn't enough easily accessible fossil fuel for a new industrial revolution, this is our only shot.

There is enough fuel if we are smart about it. Grow trees, process into woodgas, reuse old infrastructure. Add other kinds of biogas into the mix. Use old hydro ponds and rivers too. Geothermal where it's available. Wind generators are trivial to build. Solar thermal energy can give a lot for relatively minimal engineering effort. And then some time after the apocalypse - nuclear energy. If the knowledge is preserved…

The path from wind powered generators to an Intel 4004 is long, especially without plastics, which we would never develop and for which all alternatives are still, with today's technology, very limited

Realistically we probably wouldn't even need cpus and would have much more important things to work on, good luck smelting iron with biogas...

Nuclear power plants need constant maintenance, France had to shut down a good parts of their reactors during covid because they couldn't work on them due to covid restrictions, and that's very far from an apocalypse, let the rot 100 years and they'll be unusable

Doing what we did without virtually unlimited free energy is like sending a kid to climb the everest, naked, before you taught him how to walk. Petrol is the backbone of everything, medicine, agriculture, metallurgy, &c. We haven't found alternatives for a lot of use cases and that's with out current tech, a reboot would be game over

Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#58

Post by RetroTechie »

It's hard to imagine all advanced semiconductor manufacturing wiped out, worldwide.

But: it's even harder to imagine existing high-tech equipment destroyed, worldwide. A significant % would likely survive. Remember there's like 100B+ cpu's in the world out there.

Starting from there, it would be more like a logistics bottleneck. Like when Covid pandemic hit, or that ship got stuck in the Suez canal. Possibly worse. But manageable.

In short: an event catastrophic enough to nuke that 'installed base', would be extinction-level where "will any humans survive?" would be more relevant than "can we make new cpu's?".

Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?

#59

Post by precompute »

Depends on how severe the apocalypse is. Right now, you could scavenge your way through civilization and not run out of new computers to use / fix, ever. If you were stuck in a cave and had 40 years of your life left, I doubt you'd ever see one. Computers are cool but food takes priority. Not enough hours in a day.

There's a lot we take for granted in civilization. Once those layers are peeled back you're competing for territory with animals and scrounging for survival. Being able to manipulate bits will be extraneous, and really only emerged because of the sheer number of people that are alive right now. With 8Bn people, you get a lot of geniuses.

A better question would be: "how long until you could have a 24/7 source of electricity?"

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