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Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

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Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#51

Post by epolanski »

obscurette wrote: post #31
trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

As someone living nearby and having relatives in Russia ... I don't see a way Russia is able to fight years. They just don't have resources for that. The war in Donbas since 2014 was a tiny and very different one compared to the war since 2022. This doesn't mean that Ukraine will stop to get resources from West if war is over though. Ukraine needs a lot of help years and even decades after the war is over.

> They just don't have resources for that.

They have more than Ukraine which is entirely dependent on foreign aid and that's what matters.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#53

Post by rcarr »

trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

I reckon the war will continue, even if it’s massively scaled back, until Putin is either deposed or dies. When that happens, whoever takes over will end it and will lay all the blame on Putin. The Western governments and media will be happy to go along with this because it means Russia as a country is allowed to save face and everyone can scapegoat it on the madness of one tyrant. If that’s the case there’s probably at least another ten years to go, but I think it will be a massively scaled back affair of token skirmishes along the front line. I’d say it will probably start getting to this point some point after Ukraine finally get fighter jets.

I could be massively wrong though, there’s all kinds of different scenarios. Ukraine might be able to win entirely once they’ve got jets. Things might kick off elsewhere in the world e.g Taiwan. There could be some calamity at one of the nuclear power plants etc. There’s any number of black swans that could influence events.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#54

Post by huijzer »

kypro wrote: post #49

Reminder to please state your location if giving anecdotes. I'm from the UK. I was looking for job in January. I have never seen the market so quiet. I found a role (contract), but according to recruiters I was quite lucky to do so. It's picked up a lot since then in terms of total number of jobs, but I've noticed rates have significantly dropped from 2021 / 2022 levels. I'd say on average rates have dropped around 2…

> It's quite possible 2021-2022 was the best it was ever going to get for our profession.

People probably said the same in 2001 (after the dotcom bubble).

More generally, I think averages are extremely misleading; especially for job salaries. Salaries follow a power law. So maybe the average salary for new jobs is lower, the people in the top of the power law still sign 300k+ contracts. To see this, look at vacancies for well-known AI companies. You'll find listed ranges of 150k-350k. If you can bring the right skill-set, it doesn't matter what the state of the market is. (This way of thinking is also partially what made Buffett so rich. He buys great companies in financial crises. Does he care that the world seems to go down in flames? Not really. He just looks whether it's a great company for a good price because he knows that a great company is a great company regardless of the market.)

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#55

Post by benreesman »

cornholio wrote: post #45
benreesman wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have less intuition for how equity packages are working because that tends to happen a little later in the conversation at least in my geography and at my tenure. Broadly people seem to be signaling looser equity purse strings to go along with massively tighter cash purse strings YoY. I’m sort of L7/L8 with an ML infra focus in California and total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k and now people are seeming t…

> total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k That was probably an unsustainable bubble on the long run, inflation adjusted, unless you hold exceptionally rare skills that can't be replicated or taught. It was simply the result of a severely unbalanced market. I'm sure some people still make 400k+, but I'm also sure their performance and contribution is scrutinized quarterly and they are the first on the chopping bl…

I don’t think that I hold exceptionally rare skills but I’m probably like an L8 which is give or take junior director level. I’ve got 20 years of experience and am experienced in ML/AI, not at a researcher level certainly but I know my stuff.

When I was a FAANG EM I was an L7, so like one below director.

The market will be what the market will be, there’s no absolute right and wrong, but it doesn’t seem totally crazy that someone leveled around there would make what a successful doctor or lawyer does.

I’m a childless bachelor so it’s not particularly important to me to hit those comp levels again, but as a general thing I think software engineers should be considered on par for a given experience as any other job that requires decades of intense practice to get really good at in a field where one’s employer is making a healthy profit.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#57

Post by maerF0x0 »

sixhobbits wrote: post #8

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NA... If you look at nasdaq around the dotcom crash it also had a fake bounce before the real crash. Past doesn't predict the future but also no reason we couldn't be in a fake bounce now.

Also keep in mind that across time there has been inflation eating away the value of that. $5K in 1999 is far more valuable than $5K today. So the price is actually much much lower today (in terms of a basket of goods you exchange for those shares)

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#58

Post by cuttysnark »

rprospero wrote: post #46
H8crilA wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "compensation packages people are talking are still like a quarter of what was typical a year ago if that" You mean much less stock? I can't imagine a senior engineer getting a $50k in annual salary, only in the cash component.

Hi! I’m a senior engineer getting $53k in annual salary. Everyone in my department is making the same, my boss included (government job, so I know the salaries). Also, it’s a government job, so obviously zero stock. Anyway, just letting you know that we’re out here.

> Everyone in my department is making the same, my boss included

I'm curious—how does this work? More responsibility ought to mean more compensation—what incentive is there to be a boss if you'll make the same as your reports?

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#59

Post by maerF0x0 »

saberience wrote: post #14
santiagobasulto wrote: post #7

AI hype seems to be creating a different sensation, but in reality, nobody knows. Looking at "hard facts", the yield curve is in the "most inverted" position in a LONG time. I'd still be cautious.

The whole “yield curve inversion” thing is really overstated, even the guy who invented that idea says so. You should listen to him talk about it.

Please state who invented the idea, and link a talk/video :)

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#60

Post by treprinum »

morelandjs wrote: post #40
treprinum wrote: post #29

Anything related to AI is going absolutely crazy right now. I doubled my comp recently and had to reject multiple offers.

May I ask where you are working now?

As an independent consultant; thinking about starting my own AI company as I can build full MVPs with ChatGPT and vector DBs in like 2 weeks and there is so much demand.
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