Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
51–60 of 86 posts
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#52China and Russia are yesterdays growth stories (China is still at 5%). Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years.
China has strategically made bets for the last decade and is a major MAJOR investor in many of these 'other places'
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#53That is not what's happening at all. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and lots of other countries are currently building an alternative to western economy. These countries are where majority of the world population lives.
Definitely. And trade agreements will/do favor this alignment more than before
Still, the majority of educated labor flow is moving towards the US and China/Russia make it comparatively incredibly hard for immigrants to move btwn these locations. Moving between China and India would be difficult, whereas all of these countries generally can largely rely on English being their common language esp India and S Africa, where English is one of the national languages.
I think limited ability to share labor/culture/etc will limit this alternative western economy and the US has not abdicated its position yet`
If you're the best of the best in machine learning in China or India and are looking to make a move, or write a book...it'll likely be to the US and in English rather than to Brazil and in Portuguese.
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#54Unfortunately, for people living in China, such as me, the only reasonable ways, under Xi's reign, are either to start a rebellion or to go abroad. Actually, the term "Run-ology"(润学), which basically means the study of running away, has been quite popular in China for some time. My current plan is to find a new job in a western country, hopefully. I used to think that my country was just an authoritarianism state and…
I heard people are stopped from moving overseas
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#55Putin, Xi, Modi, Biden/Trump are getting older. Generational shift is coming and it is a phase transition. Where it settles, in which attractor basin is the Quintilian dollar question. :) I vote for the ECO revolution.
Xi will last as long as MaoZedong
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#56Unfortunately, for people living in China, such as me, the only reasonable ways, under Xi's reign, are either to start a rebellion or to go abroad. Actually, the term "Run-ology"(润学), which basically means the study of running away, has been quite popular in China for some time. My current plan is to find a new job in a western country, hopefully. I used to think that my country was just an authoritarianism state and…
Is it risky for you to be writing this?
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#57This only really matters if you live in China or Russia. Everyone else will do just fine or better as manufacturing in China plateaus or declines and Russia’s sphere of influence recedes to its own border. The US will continue to grow modestly but steadily with decent governance, lots of resources, and a growing population.
I keep wondering who'll work in all the factory jobs. How much will the jobs pay and how much will the rest of the people need to be able to make in order to afford Made in America things. Would appreciate insight into this.
I personally think we're gonna see a huge boom in 3D printing for manufacturing. People overlook this technology, but it's been chugging along with steady improvement for decades. It has not yet been effective or cheap enough to compete with Chinese manufacturing, but if China indeed isolates itself from the world, then that may be the spark required to ignite a major integration of 3D printing in the West.
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#58That is not what's happening at all. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and lots of other countries are currently building an alternative to western economy. These countries are where majority of the world population lives.
Absolutely. China has a very public long standing policy of engaing in global economic colonialism via its "one belt | one road | silk road 2" strategy. China having less(?) to do with the USofA in no way translates to China withdrawing from the world - rumour has it there are many other countries other than the US.
The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. I don't think China will be able to simply swap out the US for Kazakhstan and these other 1B1R countries and throw in the towel. In fact, I just recently read that China is overhauling the entire program due to various failures: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-1166396163...
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#59Since this is HN, here is a book recommendation: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan I’m going to add the usual disclaimers here about everything that comes with listening to a guy who has been predicting doom for a decade. He is very entertaining though and he has some unique insights and some unusual data comparisons - it’s fun to read. To be fair, he di…
Around February 2022, I consumed every piece of Zeihan-related content I could find online. He is very entertaining but I had to give up on him because he plays a bit fast and loose with facts and makes pretty wild predictions.
As an example, early in the Russia-Ukraine war, he claimed that Russia wanted to secure one of the geographical gateways into the country and could be expected to invade Poland and Romania circa this coming winter. He said that these gateways have been historically important for Russia's defense for hundreds of years and that they want to defend them before their population becomes too old to bear enough soldiers to take them.
This is exemplary of both the good/bad with Zeihan:
- He is entertaining and has unusual takes, as you said.
- He tends to have an essentialist worldview: Russia is obsessed with its own topography so it invaded Ukraine, China is isolationist so Xi doesn't care about what goes on in other countries, etc.
- He is a bit of a state department shill (probably necessary for his career, he seems to make a good amount from speaking gigs for these people).
- He fixates on age demographics and draws many (probably too many) conclusions from them. Big props to him for introducing me to the population pyramid though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid
- He stopped making this claim around ~summer and I'm sure will never reckon with the fact that he sincerely said he thought Russia would invade a NATO country within a year in early-mid 2022, on multiple podcasts.
I have heard him spout too much nonsense for me to listen to consistently at this point but I still check in on him just to hear what he has to say regarding major world events (like the NS1/2 pipeline bombings).
Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
#60> Cold War 2.0 is coming This would be a blessing. I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other (see Watchmen- ironically though it was about ending the cold war but a level down it works) More realistic is a 1984 style "continuous but meaningless war" that lets the various parties pursue their ideological aims wit…
It never worked in the war against drugs and war against terror.