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Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

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Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#51

Post by colinmhayes »

felipellrocha wrote: post #40
NickM wrote: post #12

I find the whole "economic gloom" sentiment a bit odd. We're at extremely low unemployment, and GDP took a small dip in Q1/Q2 but is projected to start growing again in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 is down less than 10% from it's all-time high. Inflation was an issue for a while, but a lot of that seemed to be driven more by temporary supply constraints in certain sectors than any actual currency devaluat…

I think you know the answer: > The recent interest rate hikes also didn't seem to have nearly as much impact on the markets as everyone feared they would. Markets aren’t rational

I think the markets have been far more rational with regards to rate hikes than you are giving them credit for. It's looking like the rate hikes were priced in back in early spring, and since they've actually been slower than expected the market has experienced a bit of a bounce back.

Month over month inflation was 0 last month. We're obviously not out of the woods here, but consumer demand is dropping along with oil prices which seems to be leading the fed to believe that they may only need one more sub 1% hike in early fall. That would be much better than the doom scenarios everyone was talking about 6 months ago.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#52

Post by EddySchauHai »

smalldick wrote: post #28
EddySchauHai wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have a lot of cash, but SBF theoretically could close shop and cash out if he feels the amount of money he will be able to donate will be down for the longterm. The entire point of FTX, ultimately, is to take money from crypto traders and put it into Effective Altruism charities.

> The entire point of FTX, ultimately, is to take money from crypto traders and put it into Effective Altruism charities. The entire point of FTX is to profit from the unregulated crypto markets by front-running his clients with the FTX-Alameda combo and pump (to bring in new cows to milk) and dumping (to crash the markets and buy sinking companies on fire sale) the markets; while waving the altruism flag.

I am partially involved with the EA community and know he does indeed donate, I don't believe it's just a case of waving an altruism flag but completely genuine efforts.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#53

Post by dominotw »

NickM wrote: post #12

I find the whole "economic gloom" sentiment a bit odd. We're at extremely low unemployment, and GDP took a small dip in Q1/Q2 but is projected to start growing again in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 is down less than 10% from it's all-time high. Inflation was an issue for a while, but a lot of that seemed to be driven more by temporary supply constraints in certain sectors than any actual currency devaluat…

> What exactly is everyone so scared about that we all seem to think the economy is headed for a major recession?

All the tech layoffs and hiring freezes that are happening. Whats the explanation for it if everything is fine and dandy.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#54

Post by hartator »

estomagordo wrote: post #32
hartator wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What exactly is everyone so scared about that we all seem to think the economy is headed for a major recession? The economy seems to be doing well in 2019 dollars. However you have to take account that almost 2x more money have been printed since then. And if you divide all our numbers by 2, we are already in an economic disaster.

Surely you're not saying that anyone who has the same riches today as compared to 3 years ago is, in fact, half as rich?

If you consider money should be rare right now not plentiful, I think it’s an accurate way to look at economics.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#55

Post by kiliantics »

zxexz wrote: post #21

I work in the healthcare technology/interoperability space. A ton of startups here don’t seem to be affected. The one I work for is certainly thriving.

I work in a healthcare startup too and can confirm that the interest in investing in innovative tech in this industry is only going up.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#56

Post by AlwaysRock »

NickM wrote: post #12

I find the whole "economic gloom" sentiment a bit odd. We're at extremely low unemployment, and GDP took a small dip in Q1/Q2 but is projected to start growing again in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 is down less than 10% from it's all-time high. Inflation was an issue for a while, but a lot of that seemed to be driven more by temporary supply constraints in certain sectors than any actual currency devaluat…

If you, like most people on hn, are in tech then you are highly insulated from the impact of a recession/downturn/whatever you want to call it.

You likely make significantly more than the nation average household and your job security and prospects are likely significantly higher.

I think the doom and gloom is a bit overblown too but who knows if tomorrow my company says xyz isnt looking good. Time for layoffs.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#57

Post by AlwaysRock »

Traditionally companies involved with gambling do VERY well during recessions. It's not really an industry I want to be in but a lot of folks I knew who worked on or build slot machines/slot machine tech got huge bonuses during the last 08-10 years.

Plenty of smaller companies in that space if you look for them.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#58

Post by colinmhayes »

smalldick wrote: post #28
EddySchauHai wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have a lot of cash, but SBF theoretically could close shop and cash out if he feels the amount of money he will be able to donate will be down for the longterm. The entire point of FTX, ultimately, is to take money from crypto traders and put it into Effective Altruism charities.

> The entire point of FTX, ultimately, is to take money from crypto traders and put it into Effective Altruism charities. The entire point of FTX is to profit from the unregulated crypto markets by front-running his clients with the FTX-Alameda combo and pump (to bring in new cows to milk) and dumping (to crash the markets and buy sinking companies on fire sale) the markets; while waving the altruism flag.

I mean both can be true. SBF has perhaps been too gung ho with his EA donations, burning enormous piles of cash down some very deep rabbit holes. And he got that money by using his market maker to front run his own exchange.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#59

Post by [deleted] »

kradeelav wrote: post #33
dtdimond wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's always been hard for people in those income buckets. But if the question is: are we in a massive economic downturn over the past half year, it's really hard for me to look at the data and answer with a yes. One thing I'm looking at is: https://realtimeinequality.org/ And that's showing that for the first time in over a decade, the bottom half is seeing real wage/wealth gains, even after recent inflation. Am I mi…

Charts can lie. Whether or not you can buy bacon* or gas is real. *substitute with whatever staple you wish. I used bacon here since it's historically a working class' person's meat.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#60

Post by dccoolgai »

NickM wrote: post #12

I find the whole "economic gloom" sentiment a bit odd. We're at extremely low unemployment, and GDP took a small dip in Q1/Q2 but is projected to start growing again in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 is down less than 10% from it's all-time high. Inflation was an issue for a while, but a lot of that seemed to be driven more by temporary supply constraints in certain sectors than any actual currency devaluat…

The real "reason" for this "recession" is all those stupid articles about the "great resignation". I knew as soon as those appeared the billionaire ruling class would rather cut off their own arms than allow the notion of workers getting access to some of the wealth they create. Thus: "Panic! Recession! Work harder!"
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