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Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

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Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#51
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It definitely is. The Austrians are very prepared for this crisis, and it seems like it was useful to some people shorting in 2006-2008.

In what ways are they more prepared for this crisis than anyone else?

Most Austrians I've heard see this to be a dollar crisis:

US has huge debt -> No US politician will ever default on it -> They will print money to pay it -> Dollar loses value.

That's fairly simplified but I hope you get the point. Since they see this as a dollar crisis, they are busy buying gold, silver, gold stocks, and assets in countries that have dollar-denominated debt.

I'm going to add my 2 cents here and say that in my opinion, if the Corona situation will be solved quickly enough, or at least be perceived to be solved by the public, a rush of optimism will allow the fed to inflate the bubble and postpone (and worsen) the depression.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#52
post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

I’m on the same team as you, but this is dangerous advice to take because that’s not the world we live in. Don’t buy gold because you expect the sky to fall tomorrow. In 20 years? Yeah, we’re pretty fucked. But right now? Markets can always stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. A prediction without timing is no prediction at all.

I predict it will rain after a sunny day. Some day.

Then you should buy umbrellas, and not listen to people saying it'll be sunny forever.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#54
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, I fail to see how an economic theory can predict a depression caused by a pandemic...

This crisis was not caused by the Corona virus. It is only the pin that burst a bubble that was already there, and if no virus would have happened, something else would have burst it. Austrians see the depression as a necessary correction, and the bubble as a problem. I actually sat down for a few hours to calculate what would have happened if this pandemic happened in the 50s, and no one could work (especially true…

Less a pin to a bubble, more a wrecking ball to a house made of sticks

Effectively shutting down more than half of all business is slightly more than bursting a bubble. It is world war II scale event, with exception that there is no war that could take all the unemployed hands to the front and to producing weapons.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#55
post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

The response of governments around the world doesn’t look like it’s been informed by Austrian economics, and in places which have implemented some kind of policy derived from MMT (esp. Australia) things have been looking pretty good. What would Austrian economic policy have done differently and better?

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#56
post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

I’m on the same team as you, but this is dangerous advice to take because that’s not the world we live in. Don’t buy gold because you expect the sky to fall tomorrow. In 20 years? Yeah, we’re pretty fucked. But right now? Markets can always stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

> Markets can always stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

That's very true. People will read and decide for themselves.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#57
Making sense in what fashion, to what end? Investment opportunities? Proposed public policy changes? Where to look for a job?

To a large degree the economy is unknowable. That's why you can get two economists in a room and receive seven opinions. Don't get me wrong; there's good value there. It's just that economics is an odd mix of philosophy and math. On my more cranky days I call it astrology for people who know calculus.

If the economy were knowable to the degree that some economists claim to know it, they'd all be billionaires. So my advice is to scope down your question to something a bit more workable.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#58
Wikipedia. Just yesterday I was explaining my layman's understanding of econ, namely that money itself is zero-sum, so the prices of goods and services float on the free market according to how much people are willing to pay for them.

Central banks inject money into the economy, inflating the economy, reducing costs across the board. This acts as a wealth transfer from wealth holders to wealth producers, by that I mean businesses.

Normal inflation happens in a healthy economy, in an unhealthy one like this one, they dust off the lever known as QE. In a QE environment, the central bank injects money directly into the economy by buying up government bonds and other financial instruments.

This coupled with fractional reserve banking means that the banks can make a whole lot more loans, flooding the system with liquidity so that money can start moving again.

I had implied that QE increases the money supply, and so was corrected and told that it was actually the money base that was increased. On to Wikipedia I went to upgrade my knowledge.

There I found out that the concept of money base is referring specifically to the amount of money banks can lend on using fractional reserve banking. So while nominally it's referring to the amount of hard currency in circulation, that 'in circulation' part is key, it's not just the amount of 'real' money out there.

Economics shouldn't be mysterious, one's first stop should be Wikipedia to understand the boring concepts. If you want to know how it got that way, the Wikipedia articles on the history of the banking system are pretty good.

It's dry, boring stuff. But you need to know it if you want to understand how the world works.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#59
post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

The best theory I've seen for crash cycles is:

1. The establishment encourages making credit widely available in order to pacify the less well off who would otherwise demand a better deal out of the social contract.

2. This leads to unsustainable debt, as people are forced into borrowing to meet basic needs with no means to pay it back.

3. Eventually this comes to a head as people begin to default, causes a cascading chain through the economy as people are unable to meet their obligations, leading to crash.

4. At which point, governments step in and debt is forgiven, correcting the imbalance created in step 1.

Seemed to make a lot of sense to me. And the interesting thing is that it suggests a solution: replace widely available credit with direct wealth redistribution and you end up with the same net effect (as the debts are being forgiven in the end anyway), but without the destructive boom-bust cycles.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#60
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I predict it will rain after a sunny day. Some day.

Then you should buy umbrellas, and not listen to people saying it'll be sunny forever.

No one sane thinks it will be sunny forever, and there is great economic cost in carrying around a bunch of umbrellas when the sun is shining overhead.
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