51–60 of 211 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.
Presumably not everyone needs a hospital bed. Most are fine to take a few days of bed rest, many who would normally be hospitalized out of caution can be cared for by family at home with teledoc guidance, it's a small percentage at high risk who need hospital care.
I’m surprised that no one here is mentioning the example of South Korea. [1] They are not in total lockdown, but they are doing extensive testing and contact tracing, and substantial isolation of anyone who might be contagious. Once we get testing infrastructure ramped up, this is not an unreasonable plan in the United States. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898
It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…
We don't know about natural immunity duration, or if and when there's a vaccine, and for how long it will be effective. We don't know about mutations.
I think a lot of the questions are only answered 2 years from now.
It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…
Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country
In Czech Republic, only essential businesses are allowed to function, although the measures are not as extreme as they were in China. Restaurants are closed, or serve food only for takeaway, shopping centers are pretty much deserted, gatherings in large numbers are banned. Although, the quarantine is far from total: people still go outside, and parks are very crowded (some look like superspreaders congresses - that is, lots of kids playing), and surprisingly we are allowed to go to work, regardless of the type of business. In my opinion, this is allowed because doing otherwise would have significant economic costs, and so far it's hard to justify it: there are just 300+ confirmed cases in CZ. Of course, there will be plenty more unidentified cases, and the sh*t will hit the fan. It's just a matter of time.
How long did the HIV vaccine take? Use that as a yard stuck. A lockdown isn't 'successful' it does little, except drag society into the dirt while a little time is bought to work things out. Time China bought us but we squandered. If you're lucky it's a winter desease so it'll become summer and it'll die off. But that's coin flipping a little. Treatments might be found but it's hard to know how fast, especially while…
> A lockdown isn't 'successful' it does little, except drag society into the dirt while a little time is bought to work things out. Slowing down the spread is useful to soften the blow on medicinal infrastructure.
Have a look at a flatten the curve with actual numbers not cartoons.
Make sure the hospital capacity is seasonal and accounts for the fact nurses and doctors will wear out and supply's will dwindle.
Then say it softens the blow.
I’m surprised that no one here is mentioning the example of South Korea. [1] They are not in total lockdown, but they are doing extensive testing and contact tracing, and substantial isolation of anyone who might be contagious. Once we get testing infrastructure ramped up, this is not an unreasonable plan in the United States. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898
Because it's too late. The time for that in the US was at least two weeks ago. This is why the US response to this has been driving so many of us crazy. The later you respond the fewer options you have.
To be clear, lockdown is the only option for the US right now. But then what?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Regarding immunity, there is evidence that such immunity (if it exists) is short-lived, and after a little while recovered individuals are susceptible to being infected again.
Do you have a reference for that as I keep hearing it repeated but I'm yet to see any real evidence for it.
If you’re interested, I can post some news reports. Forbes actually has a pretty good rundown of the various news articles, but Forbes isn’t always the best place for facts or safe browsing, so I’ll avoid posting that one. In the interest of fairness, I can also post (much older) news reports that called HIV/AIDS “Gay Related Immuno-deficiency” and we know how good that science was.
If social distancing can bring the number of cases down to a manageable level, you can switch to a traditional public health approach: Test anyone showing symptoms, and aggressively trace and test any contacts of known cases.