Being from Europe: Many more tourists from Asia, beginning of touristic boom from Africa. Many Europeans (and Americans) will be priced out from vacations they can enjoy now.
Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
51–60 of 76 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#52I work in the fishing industry. Based on what I am seeing - fully autonomous fishing boats/cleaning/packing plants. You know how you have a single farmer handling hectares of farmland, its really looking like fisheries are going to go the same way easily in 10 years.
This is really concerning. The fishing industry is fairly manual but many fish populations are already pushed to the brink. I went to Antartica a few months ago and I was shocked at how many squid boats we could see at night on our way down. Hundreds and hundreds with huge bright lights to lure them to their machinery. Overfishing is a real problem to the point that the current situation is almost unsustainable. I wo…
You can actually and legitimately sink a robotic fishing boat if it does unlawful fishing.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#53Not directly answering the question, but, one I've been thinking about: what skills/traits allow a person to make such predictions with high accuracy? One thing is that I think you need a pretty wide set of priors--breadth. Stuff like history, anthropology, economics, the history of art. Lots of knowledge about human behavior, politics, culture, stuff like how emotions guide behavior, etc. When I look at a typical ST…
> Not directly answering the question, but, one I've been thinking about: what skills/traits allow a person to make such predictions with high accuracy?
The same that make people succesfull at the stockmarket and investments. So mainly luck with a spot of knowledge and information and many small investments to get one good hit
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is really concerning. The fishing industry is fairly manual but many fish populations are already pushed to the brink. I went to Antartica a few months ago and I was shocked at how many squid boats we could see at night on our way down. Hundreds and hundreds with huge bright lights to lure them to their machinery. Overfishing is a real problem to the point that the current situation is almost unsustainable. I wo…
Less incentive to overfish when fewer people depend on the industry for their jobs. And, just curious, is overfishing squid an actual problem? Seems like there is a problem with squid overpopulation in fact. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/world-octopus-and-squ...
I think the overpopulation in that article is more in the Pacific Ocean. The way it was explained to me (in Spanish, and I'll admit I'm not exactly fluent) was that squid fishing off the coast of Argentina and nearing Antartica is not at all regulated and they use much bigger and more powerful lights to attract them than what they'd be permitted to use elsewhere.
I don't think they're technically "allowed" to use those sorts of lights in Southern Ocean either but each nation is responsible for enforcing the treaty and most governments don't. It's also my understanding that Japan is pretty open and notorious in their Antarctic fishing in violation of international treaties but everyone just sort of shakes their head without doing much to stop them.
Edit: Not particularly detailed but mentions the lack of regulation/overfishing in the area: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/shortcuts/2016/oct/...
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#55The stock market(s) will have crashed. And recovered nicely.
20 year olds will be extremely socially liberal. Today's 20 year olds (30-something then) will begin criticizing them and will be trending more conservative.
American Democrats will hold some extremely progressive planks, but will also have returned to center to broaden the base. Republicans will have less religious planks and will have made significant inroads with minority communities.
We'll have a mix of autonomous and traditional automobiles, but they will be owned only by those outside of big cities. The rural poor will have some nice rides (ICE machines), the rich will have self-driving luxury mobiles. Gasoline will be silly expensive.
There will be fewer wars and more international companies. Capitalism will become infused (in one form or other) into every economy. European-style socialism will also be omni-present.
Young folks will be engrossed in ever-more outrageous ultimate sports. Old folks will take great interest in geneology and the weather. Everyone will claim they know what's best to deal with the global climate.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#56I work in the fishing industry. Based on what I am seeing - fully autonomous fishing boats/cleaning/packing plants. You know how you have a single farmer handling hectares of farmland, its really looking like fisheries are going to go the same way easily in 10 years.
I would vote to outright ban fishing, in favor of farming:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-future-of-fis...
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#57Robo-servants at home. Imagine not doing any mundane tasks at home (cooking, cleaning etc) On the worse side : if there are robos at home. There will be sure outside in streets too. So we will have to figure out new jobs for ourselves.
We already have plenty. The washing machine knows what to do with the clothes. The dishwasher knows what to do with kitchenware. The robotic vacuum cleaner knows how to navigate and clean your house. They are single-function, and not autonomous. This makes them massively cheaper and safer.
Idea here was, a robo-servant will put clothes inside washing machine or dishwasher. And take them out and put them in order too.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#58This is a bit cliched but does anyone think there should be a set of end of year predictions made/voted on by everyone on HN ? It would certainly be a bit more interesting and informed than the average celebrity blogger predictions that we are usually subjected to.
Check out https://www.metaculus.com/
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#59VR will replace monitors, AR will replace smartphones (at least somewhat), electric self driving cars become normal, Elon Musk's spaceship makes it to Mars, some huge AI breakthrough (that none of us did predict).
More Facebook/Google sized companies. Hopefully, a startup that makes medicine suck a lot less than it currently does.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?
#60Based on where I'm living now (the UK):
Brexit will probably be pretty rough on society, though it won't be quite the disaster some people think it'll be. Think less 'mass starvation/riots/panic' and more 'bad tax deals and export limits when it comes to dealing with the EU' (plus maybe a few legal issues when UK and EU law inevitably differ).
Facebook may not weather the storm. Twitter and Reddit are probably gonna go the same way as Digg and Myspace too.
Lootboxes are going to cause all kinds of legal changes related to the gaming industry, and likely some large fines for companies involved. Certain games with them will probably be discontinued in many regions.
Social media sites will get even more crap for their privacy violations, and the lawsuits and fines are probably coming there too. Also, all those sites 'complying' with GDPR by offering a banner that says 'accept all cookies or get lost' are probably in for a nasty surprise.
I have no idea what web design/development trends will come about, but part of me thinks flat design could be here for a while now.
Authoritarianism and far right/far left politics will continue to rise, as existing parties obliviously ignore the issues that led to it. Chances of war are mixed though; don't suspect a World War 3 is anywhere on the horizon.
Trump will be outright moderate compared to some of the people elected in the next ten years.
Criminals and extremist nutcases will figure out that cyber security + the internet of things + other technology is a recipe for disaster, and exploit it to all hell. The results will probably mean far more government scrutinty over security holes in tech products.
Self driving cars will not take over. Human drivers will also not get replaced. No politician or political party would risk electoral suicide by doing anything there.
AI won't change much. It's coming, but it's just not there yet to lead to any Jetsons style sci-fi future or what not.
VR will get a bit less niche, but AR may catch on a bit more. The applications for that have been advertised a lot better with stuff like Pokemon GO, Snapchat/Instagram/whatever filters, the Nintendo 3DS, etc.
There's a decent chance the UK railways will be renationalised, since Labour keep crowing about the idea. If so, there's also a decent chance they may realise said chance has its downsides as well as upsides.
Wages for software engineering will probably decline a bit, as more people enter the field in hopes of Silicon Valley style lifestyles. Eventually, it could go from doctor/lawyer level salaries to something closer to office worker ones.
And that's about all I can think of right now.
Edit: Oh, and it's possible high costs of living will make marriages and relationships a necessity for many younger people now. Maybe we may even see the social status there flipped, with those who don't need to marry/live with someone else getting more respect than those who do.