Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency.

2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite.

3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock buybacks will be driven by executive compensation/bonuses continually being linked to earnings per share)

4.) Drone deliveries will become more common as drone automation tech improves. Airspace will become more regulated to facilitate this.

5.) It will be considered stylish and/or a power move to not own a cell phone.

6.) Solar/wind/hydro electricity generation will become much more commonplace on personal properties. As electricity prices turn negative and not enough cost effective battery capacity to efficiently store it, power plants will be built/redesigned to turn electricity into hydrogen fuel. This will lead to auto companies creating electric/hydrogen cell hybrid cars.

7.) In January 2030, people will comment on this post with their predictions for the following decade, not realizing this post is 10 years old.

I was just going to write a similar QC prediction. I think it'll be much like the moon landings: a huge race between US and China, a "giant leap for mankind" when we have a single general-purpose QC with a few thousand qubits and ECC (which will be sooner than many expect), then a few more trips over the subsequent decade, and then finally the realization that we have no particular reason to be there given the cost.

Moderators: can we front page this each year?

1. Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain

2. An eSports league brings in more revenue than MLS (Major League Soccer).

3. Still no Half Life 3

4. Self driving personal cars aren't a thing yet but, autonomous trucks on highways is common with humans doing the last mile delivery.

5. A FAANG company is broken up due to anti-trust regulation, my guess is Google.

6. Britain ends the decade as part of the EU in some form

7. Quantum computing will become more accessible and people will be solving real business/global problems with it

8. All crypto currencies will be trending (if not already) toward $0

9. At least one global recession, similar to 2008 due to rising debt levels

10. Most in person payments in the US are contactless (Apple/Google Pay) instead of via swiping/inserting a card or paying in cash

Trying to make these as testable as possible:

1. A pandemic kills at least 2 million people. There are theories that the pathogen is bioengineered; they may even turn out to be true.

2. At least one of Amazon/Apple/Google/Microsoft/Facebook's market capitalization on 1/1/2030 is lower than its market capitalization on 1/1/2020.

3. There's a 60%+ drawdown at some point in the 2020s in US equities, exacerbated by baby boomers panic selling their retirement funds.

4. Mean global temperatures are at least 1K over the 1951-1980 baseline every year in the latter half of the decade.

5. US prime-age labor force participation trends downward -- the Keynesian post-work future is here, it's just not evenly distributed.

6. A non-Chromium-based browser has at least 25% market share.

7. Humans return to the Moon, but Mars is still at least a few years away.

8. Practical nuclear fusion is also still just a few years away.

9. There are still hundreds of millions of cases of malaria killing hundreds of thousands of people a year; rich Westerners still talk way more about the hundreds of Westerners a year killed in mass shootings.

And just to get some sports in:

10. LeBron James Jr. is not playing in the NBA in 2030.