Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#471

Post by rad_gruchalski » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:48 PM UTC

huijzer wrote: post #76

YossarianFrPrez wrote: post #66

I don't know about "big" in terms of a viral hit, but in terms of what will change in our day-to-day experience... Here are some wild guesses, mostly along the theme of a societal conversation about and re-thinking of "sustainability" on nearly all levels. * Robotic carts that follow you around when shopping in dense, pedestrian oriented areas and/or stores. Might go hand in hand with the rapid normalization of e-bik…

> Much better voice interfaces. At some point in the next 10 years, it will be common to have primarily voice-controlled computer applications. There might be a huge role for this to play in hospitals. Doctor: "Quickly! Give patient 100 milligrams of epinephrine!" Computer: "Giving patient 400 milligrams of epinephrine. Say 'yes' to confirm" Doctor: "No. 100." Computer: "Patient received 400 milligrams"

Computer: “unrecognised unit milligram, applying 400 ounces”.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#472

Post by buescher » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:48 PM UTC

CabSauce wrote: post #253

maverick74 wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

I'm not particularly knowledgeable, but my impression is that hydrogen might work for specific applications, but we don't have a very efficient of generating it. It still takes substantially more energy than if we just store the energy in batteries.

Steam reforming of methane from natural gas to product hydrogen is in fact very efficient (up to ~85% iirc). It is not, however, carbon-neutral. At a system level, the weak point is the fuel cell and they can be about 50% efficient. So you have an overall efficiency of a little over 40%.

Batteries can be very efficient but that is not an apples-to-apples comparison. You have to get the energy somewhere. Good solar systems are about 30% efficient. Turbines are about 30% efficient.

Energy efficiency isn't the problem with hydrogen and fuel cells. They have other problems.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#473

Post by giraffe_lady » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:49 PM UTC

sinenomine wrote: post #452

philwelch wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people already have children who are more intelligent and attractive than average. They do this via mechanisms like “being intelligent enough to get rich, or at least not being stupid enough to go broke” and “being rich enough to marry hot people and have kids with them”. I don’t know if polygenetic testing is going to have a significant effect, but if it does, there is going to be a significant generation gap i…

> there is going to be a significant generation gap in intelligence Have you thought about the obvious implication that embryo selection with polygenic scoring could be used to lower the gap between genetically privileged types of people you describe and the average couple deciding to apply to procedure? What's needed: an egalitarian policy & infrastructure allowing any couple to improve the genetic basis of their pr…

If we're going to allow this on the basis that rich people will share it with the global poor, allowing the poor to use it in ways they choose to decrease inequality. then ok, hard to argue with that.

First though I'd like to see some more resource-sharing of this nature and scale from the rich. Let's see a pilot program or something because I don't see all that much global-scale sharing of the technologies that can most improve life.

When you say things like "deprive ourselves" it's not hard to see that you perceive yourself to be in the group that will benefit either way. Which is fine I think but my life has led me to more easily imagine myself and my descendants on the other side of it.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#474

Post by throwaway4aday » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:50 PM UTC

JKCalhoun wrote: post #398

emehex wrote: post #347

I'm not sure enough people are talking about Demographics and population decline, especially with respect to China. Some experts [1] predict that China's population in 2050 will be HALF of what it is today! [1] https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-xi-jinping-economics-...

Would that mean the population then will be much wealthier (as happened after the Black Plague)?

Unknown. It's never been tried in an industrialized nation. I have a feeling it could easily go the other way and return China to poverty with not enough people to sustain their current economic output. That depends a lot on what's possible to do with automation. It could also have drastic effects on the knowledge sector, breaking down chains of training and knowledge transfer. A lot of expertise could be lost.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#475

Post by PurpleRamen » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:50 PM UTC

baobob wrote: post #176

saberdancer wrote: post #149

Russia will collapse.

I feel like this definitely needs to be expanded. What makes you think that? Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility) They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created. They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine They have the ear and economic heart o…

> Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility)

Stronger than before the war, but weaker than some years ago. Russia is declining for a long time now, this war is just a last struggle.

> They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas

No, they have not. They lost them. Everyone is switching to new suppliers, while speeding up their movement to alternatives. And this did not happen because of the war. Moving to greener technology happens for some time now, 2019 it got a new boost, and the war only gave it another boost. With more than half of their export being a dated resource, Russia had an obvious problem pending on them.

> They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created.

They made a short term win by burning their long term gains. They paid very hard with all the restrictions they received, and all the trust they lost.

> They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine

You mean, steady gains backward? They are losing the war. They lost most of the territory they gained in the early days, and have now barely more than they had before the war.

> They have the ear and economic heart of China

Having an ear without the backing is useless. They can't push nearly as much to China than they sold to Europe. And china is switching to greener energy too. Russia's other products have little value for china. Not enough to compensate for the loss. Though, maybe enough to hold the country alive.

The thing is, overall economical, Russia is an old country with a dying market. A dinosaur who failed to adept to the future. And they burned every ground with those who could help them transform into a better form. But truly, a collapse does not depend on economy alone. Russia seems to have a population accustomed to suffering, and indoctrinated with Putin's nonsense. So quite likely that the country will remain as it is for the moment. But until some significant change will happen, the country will remain in a very stressed state, with a chance for collapse always being around.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#476

Post by paxys » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:52 PM UTC

rgrieselhuber wrote: post #375

colinmhayes wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people already have children that are more attractive than average. Being attractive is the biggest signal for generational wealth which reinforces the need for trophy spouses which reinforces the signal and so on.

Of the truly rich today, can you honestly say that they are more attractive than average? I’m not seeing it. I’m not talking Hollywood level but much higher, generational wealth levels. I realize that it’s hard to get data on this but just anecdotally, there aren’t many examples that come to mind.

Top 5-10 richest people isn't enough of a sample set to draw any conclusions. Compare the million richest vs million poorest people in the world and the answer will be obvious.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#477

Post by maxwell_smart » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:54 PM UTC

dereg wrote: post #384

Teever wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to piggyback on your comment by saying that preimplantation polygenetic testing is only the start of what I feel is broader impending reproductive revolution. Not only are we going to be able to start modifying zygotes like you've mentioned, we're going to be able to start generating them from any genetic material available[0], and bringing them to term in an artificial womb[1]. This is going to fundamental…

To provide a counterpoint to a couple of the examples you provided: > Imagine the shock to paternity law once some unscrupulous individual obtains a celebrities DNA through some discarded water bottle and generates children from it to demand child support payments with. This already happens with women who try to sabotage condoms and/or collect the specimen after the fact. The rapper Drake has put the phenomena in the…

Not criticizing, but just pointing out, in all fairness, men sabotage condoms and "stealth" remove them without their partner's knowledge as well.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#478

Post by DontchaKnowit » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:56 PM UTC

Geee wrote: post #284

General purpose humanoid robots. They're kind of mainstream idea, but very few people talk about them or take them seriously. Humanoid robots will have an absolutely massive impact in very near future. Most people don't realize that with general purpose humanoid robots, labor becomes software. Labor becomes repeateable, testable, simulatable, modular, extensible, verifiable, etc. All things that apply to software wil…

Sorry but this is just fantasy. Robots are not even remotely close to being able to replace humans for 90% of tasks. Robots do not deal with uncertainty well and in my opinion only ever will in scenarios where there are very tight bounds on the task.

A robot is never going to be able to build a log cabin for you, because there are far too many snafus in the process to deal with. The real world is too fucked up for a non biological agent to handle. Until we reach singularity.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#479

Post by mdp2021 » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:59 PM UTC

waffletower wrote: post #464

maverick74 wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

This reads like fossil fuel conglomerate propaganda. The first sentence posits an unproven alternative with a complex, expensive and almost entirely hypothetical infrastructure. Hydrogen is not addressed further, and fear-uncertainty-doubt tropes concerning battery powered vehicles are liberally applied. Many of the bullet points on this laundry list are disputable. Just take 'batteries take too long to charge' -- I…

It is fully plausible that the poster meant: "hydrogen based technology looks like deserving more attention - especially given that alternatives are imperfect".

Those speaking of a successful experience with home charging describe a very personal experience: many people do not have any "home charging infrastructure" (the car won't do the stairs), nor the same «driving needs». The statement «batteries take too long to charge» deserves referential (and even reverential) noticing of the current standard, which is "I refill within one first minute on the clock".

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#480

Post by DontchaKnowit » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:59 PM UTC

Flatcircle wrote: post #307

There’s a real possibility housing prices might go down or sideways for a decade or more. Between high interest rates, depopulation, government intervention regarding foreign investment, and new housing tech that makes older houses worth less, there may be a new normal in which residential real estate doesn’t appreciate for a long time.

I think that inflation will balance this out.

E.g. the value will depreciate in real terms but because most people purchase with borrowed money it will not be a serious problem.