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Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

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Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#471

Post by PeterisP »

raquo wrote: post #97
singularity2001 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Primates first developed when earth was 14°C warmer: http://gergs.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/All_palaeotemps_...

How is that relevant? Areas where more than a billion people live today will become uninhabitable to humans if they warm up by 14 degrees. Actually, much sooner than that.

I wouldn't be surprised of most of the western world will wait until the "Areas where more than a billion people live today will become uninhabitable to humans if they warm up" start taking drastic anti-climate-change sacrifices first. If they aren't willing to sacrifice economic growth to mitigate those consequences, then no one will.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#472

Post by PeterisP »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #328
cletus wrote: post #11

So I'm honestly not as concerned about this as I once was. Don't get me wrong: the climate is going to change, arguably we're in a mass extinction event already and people aren't going to suddenly start acting in the collective long term welfare of humanity. One of the things I like about futurism is the levelheaded optimism and pragmatism you tend to get. And I'll call out Isaac Arthur as a well-known example of thi…

You don't have to turn the Earth into Venus. You just have to raise the Earth from 283 Kelvin to 285 Kelvin, and you'll get massive flooding and ice melt which technology won't be able to wave away. Look at hurricanes today, they are deadly, where is the tech saving us from them?

The thing is, hurricanes are remarkably not deadly compared to the scale of social change that preventing climate change would require.

For example, in the currently worst recent hurricane years, cars killed something like 10 times more people in USA than these hurricanes. If we got people to drive half as much (which would help but not be sufficient), then the most impact on deaths and injuries would come directly from the change in habits, not from the effect on global warming.

If we're not willing to drastically reduce driving so as we'd save some of the 40000 USA road vehicle deaths/year (and we're obviously not), then why would we be willing to drastically reduce emissions just to save some of the 2000-4000 hurricane deaths/year?

The same goes for massive flooding. OK, Bangladesh will plausibly get many deaths from the sea level rise. USA? Not so much; it can probably afford a massive infrastructure investment to do Netherland-style dams for all densely populated coastal areas.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#473

Post by PeterisP »

Sharlin wrote: post #252
doon123 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Well, as comfortable as you will be able get with global wars, refugees, food shortages, etc. going on. I think the crisis will be contained to the poorest parts of the world. Especially the tropics. This area is going to be the first to bear the brunt of climate change related problems. I dont foresee Global wars happening. The politicians are too smart for that. They will try to contain the damage to the extant…

People in regions bearing the brunt of the change aren't just going to stay there. There will be mass migrations of possibly hundreds of millions, and no wall is going to stop them.

It's somewhat plausible that some of the potential targets of migration will choose to prevent this with military force, including nuclear weapons.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#474

Post by Carpetsmoker »

PeterisP wrote: post #470
Carpetsmoker wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only thing not fine is whether humans survive what they/we ultimately have brought about. Humans will be fine, as a species. But the human and economic costs will be large. Compare it to the Hurricane Katrina: most people in New Orleans weathered it fine (i.e. by evacuating the city). The city itself also survived mostly okay (it's still there). But the economic cost of cleanup was huge; and while most people s…

If the main argument is economic costs, then this turns the discussion from a global to a localized problem, whether the required actions or sacrifices justify the local risks. For example, is it worth for some country to "invest", say, $100 billion in reducing emissions - which, at least unilaterally, won't be sufficient to prevent the effects of climate change but just mitigate them - or can they achieve better mit…

> If the main argument is economic costs

Economic, human, and ecological costs. I am not hugely in favour of reducing everything to economics (although it's definitely an important part).

I also don't think that it's as simple as "$1 trillion of USA resources to prevent $10 trillion of future losses in SE Asia". Globalisation means that "local" economies aren't really all that local; so problems in e.g. SE Asia will also affect other parts of the world.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#475

Post by explainplease »

platz wrote: post #441
explainplease wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zero. The hotter the planet gets, the more water evaporates from the oceans, which condenses into clouds, which reflect sunlight, which cools the planet.

According to statistical mechanics, even boltzmann brains have a higher probability than zero. I find your absolute certainty disturbing.

Earth is 4.5 billion years old. A runaway, climate chain-reaction hasn't happened yet.

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#476

Post by platz »

explainplease wrote: post #475
platz wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to statistical mechanics, even boltzmann brains have a higher probability than zero. I find your absolute certainty disturbing.

Earth is 4.5 billion years old. A runaway, climate chain-reaction hasn't happened yet. I find your lack of faith disturbing.

I think you're confusing a complete boil-off of the atmosphere with a slightly less extreme event that simply eliminates 90% of life on the planet, which has in fact happened before

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#477

Post by explainplease »

platz wrote: post #476
explainplease wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Earth is 4.5 billion years old. A runaway, climate chain-reaction hasn't happened yet. I find your lack of faith disturbing.

I think you're confusing a complete boil-off of the atmosphere with a slightly less extreme event that simply eliminates 90% of life on the planet, which has in fact happened before

I think you're conflating a "runaway feedback loop" with "a slightly less extreme event that simply eliminates 90% of life on the planet," which says nothing about whether it was caused by a runaway feedback loop.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#478

Post by wglb »

So my thoughts are how this is a problem of a highly dynamic system. There has been this massive injection of CO2 that has pushed the chaotic system to a whole new cycle.

So my question is what exactly is the right amount of change that won’t push the dynamical system to a point of even more instability.

I haven’t seen any discussion about this. That also concerns me.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#479

Post by platz »

explainplease wrote: post #477
platz wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're confusing a complete boil-off of the atmosphere with a slightly less extreme event that simply eliminates 90% of life on the planet, which has in fact happened before

I think you're conflating a "runaway feedback loop" with "a slightly less extreme event that simply eliminates 90% of life on the planet," which says nothing about whether it was caused by a runaway feedback loop.

Therefore, by this logic, zero percent chance... qed

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#480

Post by raquo »

PeterisP wrote: post #471
raquo wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that relevant? Areas where more than a billion people live today will become uninhabitable to humans if they warm up by 14 degrees. Actually, much sooner than that.

I wouldn't be surprised of most of the western world will wait until the "Areas where more than a billion people live today will become uninhabitable to humans if they warm up" start taking drastic anti-climate-change sacrifices first. If they aren't willing to sacrifice economic growth to mitigate those consequences, then no one will.

Yeah I can totally see that kind of logic coming. But if everyone just waits for someone else to do something, nothing will change. That is the most likely outcome, I think.
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