Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#461

Post by yrgulation » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:35 PM UTC

mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

The issue is that this goes both ways. The eu is regularly imposing harsh rules on american tech. With deglobalisation there will be job losses as there will be fewer open markets.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#462

Post by gwbas1c » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:37 PM UTC

freedomben wrote: post #372

gwbas1c wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and your domestic usage is mostly in appliances which convert back down to DC immediately behind the plug socket (most of us have this) then at some point we're going to start wanting to power our homes like houseboats or camper vans. Most of these appliances use low voltage which travels poorly over long distances. Your car, camper van, and boat all use ultra-thick cables to move 12 volts. This is quite uneconomic…

My thoughts exactly. A/C has some important electromagnetic characteristics that make it a lot easier to transport. Particularly for long distance lines, high voltage is critical and transformers make it trivial to modify voltage levels, such as to get to 120V for the house. it's also a lot easier to convert AC to DC than the other way around. If we start transporting with DC, we take on a number of problems/challeng…

> it's also a lot easier to convert AC to DC than the other way around. If we start transporting with DC, we take on a number of problems/challenges that we don't deal with now.

Which brings up a very good point: What happens when grid-scale battery storage is common? Does a DC grid make a lot more sense then?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#463

Post by justin66 » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:37 PM UTC

One word: plastics.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#464

Post by waffletower » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:38 PM UTC

maverick74 wrote: post #237

throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

This reads like fossil fuel conglomerate propaganda. The first sentence posits an unproven alternative with a complex, expensive and almost entirely hypothetical infrastructure. Hydrogen is not addressed further, and fear-uncertainty-doubt tropes concerning battery powered vehicles are liberally applied. Many of the bullet points on this laundry list are disputable. Just take 'batteries take too long to charge' -- I drove a Nissan Leaf as my main vehicle for 8 years. Even given its tiny 24Kw battery pack, I was able to use home charging for 95% of my driving needs. For the last 5 years of service, I even used 120V 'trickle' charging during the evenings and it was sufficient. Now I have an electric vehicle with significantly higher battery capacity and a much faster charging network, as well as a 240V home charger. It is even more flexible and I am freer to take long road trips. When charging the car during such trips, I get out and exercise, play with the dog. It is a small adjustment that occurs infrequently during the life of the car. Most of these bullet points can be addressed in a similar manner. Enough of the propaganda!

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#465

Post by dangus » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:38 PM UTC

throwaway787544 wrote: post #415

dangus wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs aren't going to be popular because they are the solution to climate change. The better solution to climate change is sustainable city planning and development that minimizes energy use for transportation needs, emphasizing walking, bicycles, and rail travel. EVs are going to take over no matter what because in their end state they're better than ICE vehicles in nearly every way. Quieter, smoother, simpler, faster…

We need to reduce global emissions by 55 percent by 2030 to avoid catastrophe. But even if every single (inc. trucks) vehicle were electrified, it would at max reduce emissions by 20 percent. At the current estimates for 2045 it's going to be like 5-10% reduced emissions, well after we go above 2 degrees temp increase over a decade before. While we can cheer for EVs reducing emissions, it will do nothing to stop the…

What proposed alternative reduces vehicular emissions by more than switching to EVs?

As I mentioned, I'm all for the reduction of automobile usage as a generality, but that's not as low-friction as a transition to EVs.

We can lament our situation all we want, EVs are what they are. I am not saying they're a full climate solution.

Automakers are switching over them purely as a product decision, with relatively little government regulation pushing them in that direction. (Any regulatory bans on ICE vehicles were easily enacted without industry protest because automakers already know that ICE vehicles will not be competitive products by 2030)

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#466

Post by giraffe_lady » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:39 PM UTC

derefr wrote: post #356

kanzure wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If the audience is supposed to accept that genetic determinism is true in Gattaca, then no amount of Vincent's hard work should make Vincent a hero. He's just a fraud. If the audience is not supposed to believe that in the world of Gattaca genetic determinism is true (that is, it's false), then it should be interpreted as a story of discrimination, and a story of the underdog's heroic hard work overcoming the negati…

Seems to me that genetic determinism doesn’t have to be “right” or “wrong”, but rather a sometimes-useful model that we other times do not allow to colour our views. I.e. we have weight classes and gender divides for sporting events (genetic determinism), but each person who meets a minimum threshold of competence (e.g. not in prison) gets an equal democratic vote.

What is the model being referenced where someone in prison is automatically incompetent to vote? Especially given the human legacy of the war on drugs in there for example, this seems like a really good example of letting one policy color our views of an unrelated one.

You think we're going to formalize our class system with genetics and biology but then somehow ignore that in all the realms where it's not relevant? Who decides when it is relevant.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#467

Post by mdp2021 » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:41 PM UTC

trgn wrote: post #387

I'll propose a more utopian future. The end of modernism and a return to humanism. A realization in the West that fetishizing technology has turned people into widgets. A genuine bottom-up counter movement that already exists today, but will be the mainstream. Man will yet again be measure of all things, rather than adapt to the measure. In practice; things like the triumph of the walkable city; more home schooling;…

> a more utopian future

Based on what, on the realistic intervention of which actors?

And are you sure all the ideals in your set can be considered objective, naturally sharable, as opposed to ideological and partial?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#468

Post by kanzure » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:46 PM UTC

jfk13 wrote: post #422

dont__panic wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[Gattaca]( https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119177/ ) is about the long term consequences of this exact technology for society. In particular, the consequences for the children born naturally who don't benefit from this tech. They don't get any say in the decision, but end up heavily penalized, barred from certain jobs for "safety" reasons, aren't desirable partners... an underclass of society.

You just have to condition them appropriately, so that they happily accept their place. See Brave New World for the blueprints.

You might find that Brave New World is not quite the same cautionary tale against genetic enhancement that popular discourse would have you believe (it's more about totalitarianism):

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22128854

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#469

Post by mlinksva » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:46 PM UTC

woeirua wrote: post #273

Nuclear war. It has fallen out of favor to talk about this as a serious possibility, but the world is in many ways closer to nuclear armageddon right now than it has been at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis. People seem to have gotten comfortable with the idea of Ukraine as a low-tempo conventional war, but it could very quickly turn into something much more significant.

This was the answer, pre-Ukraine already. That war doesn't move the needle that much, as NATO/Russia escalation is far from the only nuclear war threat -- there's also mistakes by any party, India/Pakistan, North Korea, China, etc.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#470

Post by frakkingcylons » Mon, Aug 08, 2022, 3:47 PM UTC

Geee wrote: post #284

General purpose humanoid robots. They're kind of mainstream idea, but very few people talk about them or take them seriously. Humanoid robots will have an absolutely massive impact in very near future. Most people don't realize that with general purpose humanoid robots, labor becomes software. Labor becomes repeateable, testable, simulatable, modular, extensible, verifiable, etc. All things that apply to software wil…

Nobody is saying that general purpose humanoid robots wouldn’t be immensely useful.

But you talk about them like it’s coming in a couple years when the reality is that it’s still very far away.

Tesla has a terrible track record with keeping their promises on their claimed timeline for advanced technology like FSD. I would be extremely skeptical of anything they demo because they have not been realistic in the past.

I say this as a Tesla shareholder and satisfied model 3 owner. I bought a Tesla for their strengths with respect to powertrain and battery and it absolutely delivers on those. But I do not regret not paying for FSD at all.