What I'm finding kind of interesting is that in the 2010 predictions here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681, most folks were only offering one or a few predictions. In this thread, most people are putting out 8 to 10 predictions. I wonder what that says about us now as opposed to back then.
Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
461–470 of 1001 posts
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#4621. Electric vehicles will be mainstream. 2. Self-driving will be deployed effectively in freight transport. 3. The cost and efficiency of logistics will be lowered further and become an important factor in economic growth. 4. Pressure on the market of commercial real estate due to the lower cost of logistics. 5. Wind (especially offshore wind farms) and solar become cost-effective energy sources. 6. Technology leaps…
Re: 5 this is already true. Either you don't know this or you mean something more subtle.
In the EU that is probably true due to mature policies and infrastructure. But in many other countries, they still need government interventions to make initiatives. I anticipate that market-driven growth will become prevalent throughout the world.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#463The year of the Linux desktop will come... handed by Microsoft and their Linux subsystem making developers return to buy Windows machines
Microsoft abandons the NT kernel and makes Windows a Linux Desktop Environment on top of the Linux Kernel, like Gnome or KDE...
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#464By 2030.
1. There will be more electric cars bought than non-electric. Countries start banning petrol diesel cars.
2. Huge wave of internet content moderation/censoring. New laws passed across countries to moderate content.
3. Bitcoins gain traction, everyone starts using them, although it's value go down considerably.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#465- Nuclear power is more popular, especially small-scale, and climate change isn't really talked about any more in 2030 - Human genetic editing becomes mainstream; treating genetic diseases will become a cheap standard procedure; genetic enhancement is also becoming popular in China and South Korea and will be a hot political topic - Human lifespan can be increased by at least 20% with treatment - Most traditional car…
I'm interested to know why you think climate change won't really be talked about in 2030. I take it you're optimistic the problem will be solved?
It will still be an issue, but it's solved to an extent that it isn't discussed. The solution is pretty much in the economics of nuclear and solar power which become much cheaper than burning coal or oil.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#466* Apple becomes a true lifestyle brand, where you subscribe to different plans. They offer cellular plans. Macbooks by default are internet connected devices. The touch bar becomes bigger. One dream is that they release a smaller iPhone again.
* Major technology companies invest into public infrastructure. From bus stops to cycle/scooter lanes.
* Car ownership decreases due to more alternatives and aforementioned investment.
* Major uncontrollable fire within a major city, much like the fire of London.
* Ocean Cleanup project are a success.
* SpaceX enter the commercial airline industry with an electric/solar plane.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#4671. China has a 1929 moment and¨faces the first major modern depression, it affects the whole world like the 2008 financial crisis.
2. We find extraterrestrial life.
3. The USA tightens antitrust laws and its effects FANGS greatly.
4. Autonomous cars are starting to spread but infrastructure hampers that spreading.
5. We get the first state-backed crypto coin which spreads like wildfires in Australia.
6. The USA turns inward and the EU has to save Italy from economic catastrophe.
7. Gigantic hurricane hits the USA and it forces the USA taking climate change seriously some kind carbon tax/cap and trade is implemented.
8. GAN made fake video spreads fast and hits MSM, it might be porn or conspiracy type video.
9. First modern African descended pope is elected.
10. Electric cars are sold more than traditional ones in the major western markets.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#468Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…
I disagree strongly on number 6. Offliners would be as popular as people who still carry flip phones and lecture you about it. You can’t become mainstream without some kind of media. Vegans talk about veganism all the time on social media. That’s why everyone knows about it.
> You can’t become mainstream without some kind of media.
All it takes is a series of stories about offliners from a couple of major news outlets.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#469More of letting my imagination run wild than real predictions:
* Fixation with tesla bankruptcy morphs into fixation with tesla breakup as it becomes the most valuable company in the world.
* SpaceX is a telecommunications giant, making Elon the richest man alive by a factor of 2.
* More than his wealth, Elon's cult of personality starts to raise eyebrows in washington and beyond.
* Elon is forced to move into politics, as a) he can't defend his businesses otherwise, b) it becomes evident that he can't realise his visions without state power.
* Elon continues the trend of his predecessors (trump and some unknown populist in 2024) to wreck havoc on the American system.
* However, he does succeed in reuniting the US, as his brand of green techno evangelism and cosmic evolution speaks to both rust belt and hyperliberal cities.
* His primary focus then becomes destroying American elites as he rationally and correctly identifies that they are the main obstacles to his vision (the joke goes around that Elon is the AI he warned us about)
* Elon remains the de-facto leader after his 2 terms in office and Shotwell becomes the first female president.
Other notes:
* Elon indirectly commands a private militia of mostly 20 year olds, who found each other and organize via the internet. By 2026, this is not unheard of. They frequently clash with other militias.
* NY and SF have a social credit system (implemented by the same companies that built it in China). Spying on neighbours is commonplace, as is being sent to reeducation at a former collage campus. Anyone who wants a career accepts this as cost of doing business. Many careers are ended by false allegations.
* Events in China will change everything above.
Comic relief:
* Joe Rogan serves in a communication role in the Musk government.
* Alex Jones is the only one who warns early about a Musk dictatorship. He is ridiculed by everyone. It doesn't help that he thinks Musk is a literal alien.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#4701. China has a 1929 moment and¨faces the first major modern depression, it affects the whole world like the 2008 financial crisis. 2. We find extraterrestrial life. 3. The USA tightens antitrust laws and its effects FANGS greatly. 4. Autonomous cars are starting to spread but infrastructure hampers that spreading. 5. We get the first state-backed crypto coin which spreads like wildfires in Australia. 6. The USA turns…
People have been predicting (1) for a while. What makes you think this is finally the decade for it?