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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#441

Post by orangepurple »

kragen wrote: post #186
mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

How does rebuilding manufacturing work? Does it look the same as it did 50 years ago, or is it different? What happens if the attempt fails?

There is too much environmental and labor regulation in the US so it will have to be done in a puppet state in geographical proximity to the US.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#442

Post by ZeroGravitas »

tristor wrote: post #376
youngNed wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this 'people are rich because they are smart' is not a take i expected to find on HN. Its not quite as damaging as 'people are rich because they work harder' but its really not far off

Okay, rather than being pithy, perhaps you could explain succinctly why people are rich, then? Or perhaps you can admit that in many cases people have achieved moderate to high wealth in democratic free market societies by either working harder or worker smarter than their peers?

'Luck' seems to cover most of it.

Even in your example, how did they get themselves born into a democratic free market society?

Luck.

Some people really dont like that answer, since it makes them feel vulnerable.

They'd rather blame a victim, and worship a lottery winner than accept that some things are outside their control.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#443

Post by [deleted] »

ericmcer wrote: post #402
rgrieselhuber wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of the truly rich today, can you honestly say that they are more attractive than average? I’m not seeing it. I’m not talking Hollywood level but much higher, generational wealth levels. I realize that it’s hard to get data on this but just anecdotally, there aren’t many examples that come to mind.

Have you seen Zuckerberg, Musk and Bezos?

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#444

Post by PurpleRamen »

Geee wrote: post #284

General purpose humanoid robots. They're kind of mainstream idea, but very few people talk about them or take them seriously. Humanoid robots will have an absolutely massive impact in very near future. Most people don't realize that with general purpose humanoid robots, labor becomes software. Labor becomes repeateable, testable, simulatable, modular, extensible, verifiable, etc. All things that apply to software wil…

> but very few people talk about them or take them seriously.

Because there is nothing to take serious at the moment. It's still a decade or more away. In the meanwhile, regular automation and outsourcing is eating jobs on a regular base. We don't need humanoid robots for this.

> Put your robot in a forest with a few tools and soon you'll have a log house - built perfectly to the spec.

So it's rich people's tool. Not for the masses.

> Labor also becomes abundant. There's no more need for humans for economic growth.

In the first place it means labor will become cheaper. Why pay for expensive hardware, when people are willing to work cheaper to make a living. The same happens now with automation. Cheap products are getting outsourced to poor countries where things are man-made for pennies, instead of using some fancy automation to make some lasting high quality-product.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#445

Post by cjpearson »

woeirua wrote: post #273

Nuclear war. It has fallen out of favor to talk about this as a serious possibility, but the world is in many ways closer to nuclear armageddon right now than it has been at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis. People seem to have gotten comfortable with the idea of Ukraine as a low-tempo conventional war, but it could very quickly turn into something much more significant.

Tom Nichols wrote about this recently in The Atlantic. [0] It's not just the general public, but also the next generation of military and national security leadership that has grown comfortable ignoring nuclear weapons and takes deterrence for granted.

[0] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/07/us-nucl...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#446

Post by wbsss4412 »

elmomle wrote: post #224
blinkingled wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's amazing to me how little talk there is about reduce and recycle - with remote work, better city and public transport planning etc if we could completely eliminate the use of cars for the vast majority of the populace we would not need to mine more for batteries, wonder where and how our electricity is going to come from and how we are going to offset carbon. We literally have no vision for optimization, we just…

The problem is that it's a classic large-scale prisoner's dilemma. Living in a walking city is nicer than living in a driving city. But living in a walking city with a car is even nicer! The only way to fix it is by passing taxes or other restrictive legislation, which has so far been extremely difficult because most voters choose "let's make things a bit easier for you today" over "we should all sacrifice now to mak…

That’s why it’s important to help people understand that’s it’s not about eliminating cars entirely, but about substituting significant numbers of trips.

The YouTube channel NotJustBikes has gained a lot of notoriety over the last couple of years, and he made an interesting point that driving is more pleasant in Amsterdam. [0]

The issue is mainly car dependency not cars per se.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8RRE2rDw4k

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#447

Post by personjerry »

paganel wrote: post #427
personjerry wrote: post #294

One thing I've been thinking about is, how do you scale tourism? Edit for clarification: For example, the destruction of local environment is a known problem for places such as Machu Picchu and Venice, to the point where you now need to reserve and pay for a visit to the city of Venice [0] As population gets higher more and more people want to visit the top destinations, and when a new one gets "found" it gets floode…

The trend is to de-scale it, most probably airplane tickets will get even more expensive (I'm talking about things here in Europe), not to mention accommodation. It will suck for countries like Greece or Spain, which depend a lot on tourism money, but there's not much that they can do about it.

That's not really solving it, that's just adjusting the point on the pricing curve. That means an increasing amount of unmet demand right?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#448

Post by phpisthebest »

throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

But you did not even talk about CME events, Astroid Impacts, or Yellow Stone blowing up.... That is weak doomsday stuff to leave out them.

I will say also, any government promises or actions more than 1 election cycle out are pipe dreams by those governments, When we get to 2030, I will be SHOCKED if even 20% of the nations promising to ban ICE sales will actually do it

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#449

Post by dqpb »

hn2017 wrote: post #411

Alternative truths - Trump says election was fraudulent, everyone believes it. Crazy stuff like QAnon/Alex Jones. Blatant lies that are objectively false (bigger crowd size, etc..), Sandy Hook shooting didn't exist. Vaccines/5G/Bill Gates cause cancer/zombies. People will start living in an alternate reality devoid of truth which will splinter society

I heard that coronavirus causes 5G internet.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#450

Post by tboyd47 »

fomine3 wrote: post #240
tboyd47 wrote: post #197

Türkiye is becoming the China of Europe in terms of manufacturing.

Could you introduce some examples, like ODMs?

Unfortunately no. I don't work in the field, but I just spent a few months there networking for business, and everyone is getting into the export/import business. Even housewives are making money just buying products at the local malls and dropshipping them to Europe.

The labor is ridiculously cheap after the lira crash, raw materials for practically anything can be sourced domestically, and it's right in the neighborhood of everywhere except America and China.

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