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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#441
post #439
post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, I'll call it a yes. Payments didn't come to mind. I guess contactless payment just didn't seem important to me, so I forget about it. Nifty, sure but blink and you miss it.

I'm guessing that you don't live in Europe.

Actually do. Ireland. I do use it every day, and tapping is better than chip-n-pin. I barely remember scanning. But ultimately, it's not a huge change.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rust has seen lots of quiet uptake. What you don't see is hiring for people for Rust because most organizations don't experience a whole-sale shift to Rust, and you just retrain people on the inside. I'd wager there are lots of people like me - writing small tools at work in Rust, but the employer would never hire for Rust. I think we'll see broader market adoption in the next 2-5yrs though, in terms of people actual…

Any citations?

So, for the uptake, you can see a large list of companies here: https://www.rust-lang.org/production/users

The not hiring but using bit is based on not seeing Rust jobs despite companies actively using Rust, and many anecdotes of "I wasn't hired for rust, but we use it" over in reddit on r/rust when people ask how to get a rust job.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#445
post #185

The most striking thing about the thread is how little of current importance was even mentioned: - Bitcoin would become the decade's best investment by far - the President of the US would conduct foreign policy through Twitter - electric scooters would become a billion dollar business (Bird, Lime, etc.) - the sharing economy would threaten the taxi and hotel industries (AirBNB and Uber) - escalation of school shootin…

How does your list not include climate change as a thing of current importance? It wasn't mentioned much in the original either - though i saw one comment calling it "FUD" - but they were making forecasts ;)

> Hopefully network analysis/data mining laws/politics will be handled with a little less FUD, a little less grandstanding, and a little more efficiency than we're seeing with climate change politics...

They were clearly describing the handling and discourse (I suppose on a large public scale) of climate change as FUD, not climate change itself.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#446
post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

afaict until the 25 Dec 2019 ruby 2.7.0 release you probably could "say that python is faster than ruby". fwiw ruby 2.6.3p62 ruby 2.7.0p0 binarytrees-5 220.557 elapsed secs binarytrees-5 124.421 binarytrees-2 178.751 binarytrees-2 149.458 binarytrees-3 176.672 binarytrees-3 150.645 binarytrees-4 136.930 binarytrees-4 113.516 binarytrees-1 176.208 binarytrees-1 149.078 fannkuchredux-1 1702.734 fannkuchredux-1 1738.016…

Ruby pulled ahead of Python in speed in version 1.9 and has stayed ahead (most of the time, in most tests) since.

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#447
post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Apple and Google are still the only two mobile operating systems that matter and they are still in relatively the same position. iOS still controls the high end where the money is and Android has the market share but the OEMs are not making any money. You're badly misremembering or recontextualizing with hindsight bias. At the start of 2010, iOS had 32%, Android had 4.5%, and there were at least 5 other mobile OS…

Android was at 22.7% in 2010. It was growing like crazy. https://www.computerworld.com/article/2512940/android-smartp...

It was! It grew from ~4% at the beginning to ~22% at the end.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#448
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Printing the keys and sticking them a safe would have done the trick - but you'd need the foresight to know that not touching it for 10 years is the plan.

That's the gotcha. If bitcoin hits $1M by 2030, the people reading your comment from the 2030 repost of this thread will have a good snicker. Bitcoin's entire value, literally all of it, is just an index for how widely and strongly felt HODLology is across the globe. The sale of a bitcoin is a cult member leaving, the purchase is a baptism, however transiently intended the purchase is, because the purchase represents…

Probably a good strategy is sell when you can retire off of it. Having $10m but not having gambled it for $1bn isn't a loosing position to be in, IMO. Alternatively you could have 4 allocations, sell one in 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050. Or 10 going over the next 100 years (pass them down to kids).

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#449
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the gotcha. If bitcoin hits $1M by 2030, the people reading your comment from the 2030 repost of this thread will have a good snicker. Bitcoin's entire value, literally all of it, is just an index for how widely and strongly felt HODLology is across the globe. The sale of a bitcoin is a cult member leaving, the purchase is a baptism, however transiently intended the purchase is, because the purchase represents…

Ok I make a prediction here for 2030: Bitcoin won't be at $1M at all, very far from it. Bitcoin will be between $0 and the cost of mining a single coin. Right now, this is around $7,000. Could be similar or less in 2030. I don't expect it to go anywhere. It seems to have a niche purpose, but will never gain mass adoption. I make another prediction: By 2030 not a single cryptocurrency will be used mainstream / have re…

That is the wrong way around. The cost of mining a coin is influenced by it's market value, due to economics and the difficulty adjustments. If BTC becomes worthless, it won't cost anything to mine a coin.
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