The new decade actually starts Jan 1st 2021... The same way this is the 21st century.
Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
431–440 of 1001 posts
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#4321. I'll go against the herd and say China won't collapse but continue to grow and in 2030 China will be the largest economy in nominal GDP terms by a significant margin. Also, Sino-American trade will be at its highest ever in 2030. 2. India will grow and easily overtake Japan to be the 3rd largest economy (nominal GDP) in the world. 3. Vietnam and ASEAN will be the fastest growing economies ( country and region ). 3…
>Also, Sino-American trade will be at its highest ever in 2030.
By percentage of gdp or just total volume?
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#433[deleted]
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#434Huh, not any hilarious predictions yet? - Artificial life forms and pet becomes mainstream. - First experimental artificial wombs for human babies put to test. - Current HIV becomes curable mainstream but another mutation will take its place. It will come from US or Europe. - War will break out in different parts of the world and first AI use for the purpose of killing people. - On demand AI therapist using a wearabl…
Throwing a few more!
- Most crypto currencies will die or come close to it including bitcoin. Centralized currency owned by private companies will take over.
- Nuclear tragedy will happen
- Boom of new wearables and micro tech as we finally make a breakthrough in battery/energy tech.
- Major advancement in sex reassignment surgery.
- Virtual characters running for some sort of election somewhere.
- I have a hunch that thousands if not millions of people will die in an unexpected calamity (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanos, epidemic etc)
- Either Mind controlled or controlling tech. One will surely hit the plate.
- Movements similar to genocide and eugenics will increasingly get popular.
- Hollywood butchers anime by pushing more live action crap. We see huge decline in the creativity and diversity as a whole despite broader audience and more funding than before.
- Ask HN: is IRC still alive?
- Most movies will become interactive in some form.
- Major advancement in architecture. 3D printed houses become viable for rich and techies. Focus will be on making them transportable.
- 3D printing gives rise to a new chain of clothing, accessories, devices, games, drugs, organ transplants and food. People will sell the design instead of the physical product. Online retail that depends on physical shipping will see slow down in growth.
- Lot of minor and some major surgeries will have automation taking over, although it will be in the testing phase for another decade or more.
- Even more accessible and stronger forms of synthetic drugs. Hallucinogen will be legalized in most developed countries and used for treatment. Drug development will be driven by simulations and machine learning.
- Some kind of regulation that will force tech companies to add mandatory form of parental control and have to go through certification.
- Schools will have AI driven monitoring system which will help them straighten out kids who won't pay attention in classes. They may have to wear school provided wearable which will track their heart rates along with other stuff such as sleep and diet. Workplaces might have something like this too especially low to mid skilled labor intensive tasks that won't be automated yet.
- China will become major exporter of surveillance tech along with India and Singapore.
- Self defense AI drone with taser/gas or soft gun for police. Someone will use drones and remote controlled equipment for terrorist attacks. Operating drones will require license and training.
- Legal euthanasia will become more acceptable. Suicide rate denial with eventual acceptance of problem from the government and people.
- More cyborgs. Advancement in devices operated using nervous system.
- Amazon becomes big provider for retail businesses. It will provide infrastructure and hardware for friction free experience (cashierless checkouts, better discoverability)
- Smart clothes? Maybe not quite but I think gesture control or assistant attached to it might become popular.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#435World War III begins in Syria. It doesn't lead to nukes, but millions die, including on US soil.
Psst, you're not allowed to peek on Twitter.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#4361. Reddit dying/overtaken by another site in next 2-3 years.
2. Current dating apps dying. OkCupid will become irrelevant. Tinder will get overtaken by another app but not the FB one.
3. HIV AIDS cure will be fully and easily available in next 5 years.
4. Twitter will die off in 5 years.
5. No World War.
6. YouTube will get less traffic and a new competitor will be around with more traffic.
7. Tesla will become a Trillion dollar company.
8. Mankind will step foot on Mars and Moon again.
9. Google will launch a few more products and then kill them after 2 years.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#437Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…
> 8. Web development matures and a "standard" stack is accepted, all in JS. I'd walk into traffic.
I'm reminded of the old adage that "we don't know what the scientific programming language of the future will look like but it will be called FORTRAN."
JavaScript today is much more usable than what came out in 1995. You still can't use the Set type to usefully contain anything but primitives, but there's a Set type!
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#438OK these are some a very long predictions: - At least one East Asian country out of {singapore, south korea, japan, china (ROC or PRC)} legalizes Cannabis. - Microsoft extends the dominance it began in late 2010 decade. C# and F# eclipse Java as enterprise programming solutions. - Google runs into some major trouble and loses considerable market share; the biggest tumble comes on the heels of an internal, employee-le…
Microsoft already has a public kubernetes competitor that (comparatively) nobody uses: https://github.com/microsoft/service-fabric
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#439The rate at which US solar electricity generation grows will pass 33 TWh per year, surpassing nuclear power's best decade (1980-1990) when US nuclear generation grew by 32.6 TWh per year.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#440Singularity does not happen
Therefore…
International banks moving off of Libor triggers loan re-evaluations causing a financial down-turn
In response, US creates a trillion dollar infrastructure bill that gives power to states and cities to invest in infrastructure
China introduces state sponsored crypto currency uses it in trade with Africa and Asian trade partners (starts moving world off the dollar)
Russia replaces Putin, goes into irrelevancy as population ages
Amazon becomes major brick and mortar retailer (buys Best Buy)
Microsoft is first company to hit $2T valuation on backs of azure + developer tools and enterprise productivity.
Apple does not have another major consumer hit, has to make major cloud company acquisition to keep services business relevant
Google keeps search ad monopoly and continues to win TV video ads revenue through YouTube
Facebook + Netflix start dancing. Mobile specific content is released
Tesla is #1 car company globally. Existing companies are forced to license their tech (VW leads)