Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

Some bold predictions. Many may not come true:

1. Intel loses its lead in the data center and in laptops/desktops. This will be lead by Apple replace Intel with their own CPUs later this decade, AWS continuing to build out their ARM offerings, and AMD biting at Intel’s heals on the low end. A competitor from China may emerge, but won’t penetrate the US market due to national security concerns.

2. Boeing will require a government bailout. The Boeing brand never recovers from the Max incident. China starts to compete with Boeing and captures some of the Asian market. The allegations published this year of poor manufacturing practices start to materialize in the late 2020s with Dreamliners falling out of the sky.

3. Social program reform. Medicare goes insolvent causing either (1) an increase in taxes, (2) a cut in benefits, or both. Ditto on many pension funds

4. Climate change starts to cause major displacement and famine.

5. Rudimentary knowledge of a programming language will start to become table stakes for getting a job in developed economies. This won’t fully occur for several more decades though. However, companies will start to realize that the optimizations that can be rendered through “low code” methods has already been rendered.

6. I say this as someone pursing an MBA — MBAs will become less valuable as a degree.

7. Bitcoin bubble bursts for mainstream users. It’s niche will be a payment method for “hostage” software and sanctioned nations to launder money.

8. Brexit leaves the UK economy looking a lot like Japan.

9. A millennial will become president of the US.

10. Some kind of “offline” movement that’s on par with Yoga — people brag about it being good for health.

11. Still no fully autonomous self driving cars.

12. Google and Amazon lose their luster as employers. Microsoft gains more clout as an employer.

13. Ethics becomes a central part of corporate decision making. This isn’t driven by wanting to be good but rather what I’ll call the Susan Fowler effect where a single contributor can bring down a CEO with a blog post.

14. Company valuation currently tends to track revenue growth. I think it’ll move closer to something like EBITDA growth or operating cash flows growth over the next decade.

1. I'll go against the herd and say China won't collapse but continue to grow and in 2030 China will be the largest economy in nominal GDP terms by a significant margin. Also, Sino-American trade will be at its highest ever in 2030.

2. India will grow and easily overtake Japan to be the 3rd largest economy (nominal GDP) in the world.

3. Vietnam and ASEAN will be the fastest growing economies ( country and region ).

3. VR will become mainstream.

4. Man will set foot on Mars.

5. No general AI.

6. No fusion.

7. Magnus Carlsen will be the first human player to achieve a 3000 rating.

8. Greater accumulation and conconcentration of wealth, growing income inequality, further decline in poverty, further drop in fertility rates and more mass surveillance around the world.

Lots of great predictions here. I'll just offer a couple about Tesla:

* Tesla's supercharger standard is discontinued in favor of CCS1 for EV rapid charging in the United States.

* Large battery packs providing lots of range in Tesla EVs stops being a competitive differentiator as large battery packs undergo commoditization.

>9. Commonplace purchases will increasingly be made with point-of-sale loans and/or monthly leases. This will increase economic disparity (rich people will buy stuff / get better rates, poor people will rent things / can never get ahead)

Oh man. I didn't even think about it, but I think you hit the nail on the head with this one. Between more and more online retailers offering "Affirm" monthly payments for everyday items and true ownership of goods being less common with subscription services, your rediction is a natural and scary evolution for everyday purchases.