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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#411

Post by bosie »

Svip wrote: post #364
roenxi wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy is a tool to get people goods and services. It is less important than life & death on a mass scale. 0.1% to 1% of the population unexpectedly dying is huge . If the government was implementing a plan that they had considered and prepared over a number of years, carefully assessed the evidence and weighed the options? Costs and benefits have been weighed and it is hard to ask for more. Government has no id…

> 0.1% to 1% of the population unexpectedly dying is huge. A lot of people seem to be focusing on mortality rate, but data from China and Italy show that people who get severe symptoms, but survive COVID-19 will live with lifelong scares, that make them vulnerable for say the next flu season. So while 0.1-1% may die, we are talking about upwards of 10% of people being put out of commission. It's also wrong to say tha…

do you mind sharing some sources regarding the long term effect of covid-19? i am worried about it, especially since i haven't heard much about it so far (might be too early to tell). thanks.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#412

Post by csomar »

jariel wrote: post #351
csomar wrote: post #338

Thinking about it from where I am right now, I don't think it is crazy. Let's think about it again: China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan. They are countries which are very connected to each other; and yet, somehow, they managed to contain it. It's 'herd responsibility'. The people are applying social distancing and hygiene rules, that's why it's working. It's possible, as a knowledgeable politician, that y…

"that's why it's working" It's only 'working' while the country is on lockdown, and FYI the country spirals towards economic meltdown. If they come out of 'lockdown', then 'it stops working'. See the paradox here? I really have no clue: maybe we'll develop therapies, a better understanding, maybe a vaccine, but possibly this 'herd immunity' idea at least on some scale. I really don't know. But coronavirus is not goin…

> It's only 'working' while the country is on lockdown, and FYI the country spirals towards economic meltdown.

Nope.

> In Taiwan, most residents carry on as normal, with offices and schools open. Many restaurants, gyms, and cafes in the capital, Taipei, are still bustling, although most premises will take temperatures and spray hands with sanitiser before allowing customers in.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/how-taiwan-is-...

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#413

Post by stordoff »

OJFord wrote: post #393
another-dave wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the Guardian on Thurs, quoting Boris Johnson: “At some point in the next few weeks we are likely to go further, and if someone in a household has those symptoms then we will be asking everyone in that household to stay at home. I want to signal now that this is coming down the track.” — https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-moves-to-de... Which would suggest that's not the advice currently. Would be i…

> The move to launch “shielding” of the elderly and infirm and “whole family isolation” is an escalation since Thursday, when the government said that only individuals with a persistent dry cough or temperature should stay at home for seven days. Paywall, sorry, but from: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-death-toll-le...

> the prime minister ordered the government to accelerate plans [...and] is expected to impose the new rules this week

It's not the current advice.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#414

Post by inimino »

arcticbull wrote: post #233
freehunter wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if you are in contact with someone under 31 who has no choice but to be in contact with someone over 31... I guess the question you have to consider is how much to blame is each individual who chooses to ignore recommended procedures yet passes the virus on to someone who ends up dying.

Then why are they out? They have no excuse. My parents are older and so I'm not going to visit them, and instead call regularly. That's unfortunate but that's the safest thing to do.

By staying out you are contributing to the spread of a virus that society at large is ill-prepared for. You have no excuse either. This shouldn't be hard for a grown adult to understand.

If your behaviour is only responsible on the assumption that everyone else you meet is behaving responsibly, then your behaviour is irresponsible.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#415

Post by ajross »

rumanator wrote: post #389
ajross wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not "nonsense". It's real. It works for almost every other virus out there (even colds and flu, even though it's imperfect: new seasonal cold and flu strains don't become pandemics, because many people have some immunity from previous infections). If you let a large enough fraction of the UK contract and recover from COVID-19, we have every reason to suspect that the society will develop good enough herd immunit…

> It's not "nonsense". It's real. It works for almost every other virus out there (e You're failing to take in consideration that the virus incubation period is on average 1 to 2 weeks, and those who manage to recover from the disease take about 2 weeks from diagnosis to confirmed cure. This means that you're comparing 4 weeks of exponential growth with 2 weeks of constant recovery. Sure, those who survived the disea…

> But the thing you fail to understand

No no, I understand that. But the thinking is, and it seems to be backed by data, that the health system will be able to cope with a full-population maximal pandemic, as long as it is limited to the much less vulnerable segments of the population. The ICUs in Italy and Hubei were filled, for the most part, with elderly patients. The math, such as it is, checks out.

The risk management analysis, again, is IMHO batshit crazy. But the theory seems about as sound as it could be given the data we have.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#416

Post by dathinab »

No it's insane. Because you know viruses do one thing: they mutate.

Also heard immunity takes to long at which point all old people will get potentially infected too.

Also cases to death ratio (and infection to death ratio) are still on a magnitude larger then with the flu. Especially given that somewhat between 10-20% of infected need intensive medical care, all roughly at the same time if you don't slow the spread which likely can't be provided if that should happen increasing death ratio.

With such a strategy we at looking a mostly likely at >350000 deaths. Not unlikely even over 1800000...[]

Through well there is always very, very small chance that it will work. Less because it's a good strategy but because even if you do nothing there is a very very very small change for a virus to "self destruct" (not correct way to describe they effect but it basically similar to a self destruction to a outside observer knowing nothing about virology).

But gambling hundred of thousand lives one it would be insane.

Well except if you have no morals and want to destabilize the country. Through I don't think that's the case, incompetence is more likely.

EDIT: spelling

EDIT: Numbers based on not unlikely infection rate of 60% of population and IDR of 1% (health system not overloaded) and 5% (health system overloaded to some degree).

EDIT: argument based on heard immunity idea not explicitly the UK strategy

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#417

Post by toyg »

phpnode wrote: post #374
roenxi wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The impacts of Brexit are relatively abstract; COVID-19 is piles of dead bodies and 1 in 20 families losing a grandparent. Spinning that positively is mighty challenging.

I don't personally think politics are playing a major role in these decisions. UK elections are 5 years away, that's a lot of time for them to change the narrative if things don't end well.

The Tory party does not require an election to backst— er, replace its leaders.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#418

Post by joe463369 »

knzhou wrote: post #227
ubercow13 wrote: post #212

Modelling disease spread seems like the kind of scientific endeavour that one can dedicate one's whole life to becoming an expert in, and many people presumably do. Considering that, why should anyone give much credence to a random medium article on the topic by a 'silicon valley tech executive'? (lol) There are 10's of thousands of scientific research papers [1], by scientists, on COVID-19 already, and this guy is j…

Because the models the government's epidemiologists are using explicitly don't account for all possible actions. Back when this was taking off in China, a bunch of epidemiologists came out and said it was completely uncontrollable there. They were wrong, because they hadn't accounted for the extreme actions the Chinese government was willing to take; it was not even a possibility in the models. The same story repeate…

These may be legitimate criticisms of the UK government's epidemiologists - I'm not in a position to judge - but I'm not sure it explains why we should be listening to Tomas Pueyo on the matter.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#419

Post by lazyjones »

I'm not really qualified to comment on this strategy, but isn't this going to lead to stronger exposure to virus specimens per individual, i.e. more severe infections and thus higher CFR?

The actual goal of the UK might be to sacrifice a few people to boost the economy while the rest of the world wrecks its economy.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#420

Post by yesenadam »

hyko wrote: post #170

They are neither; they are making difficult decisions on the basis of limited information across multiple disciplines. The main aim is to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, which would be a humanitarian disaster. A secondary aim is to prevent bringing economic life to an end in the UK, which would also be a humanitarian disaster. We are at most about five months into this pandemic; to suggest we know what strate…

> http://www.ox.ac.uk/research/everything-you-need-know-about-...

Thanks for linking to that fascinating article, by far the most enlightening virusy thing I've read.

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