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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#401

* Moore's law stays dead. Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field (Stadia already exists, but other uses will appear). Probably offered by an existing cloud provider first. * Recession happens this decade. * Someone becomes the US democratic nominee with a UBI platform. * The US gets single payer healthcare. * Zoning laws become an e…

> Recession happens this decade. After any other decade, nobody would bother to say that, because of course there would be a recession (if not more) in the next decade. It is amazing that the 2010s didn't have one. But, as you say, amazing usually doesn't continue forever...

Why do you seem to think that bull markets have to have an expiration date? It seems entirely plausible that with the right "management" (think the right people at the Fed and being the President) the bull market can continue forever with only minor corrections (on the order of the end-of-2018 correction).

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#403
1. The "streaming games" concept crashes and burns when Google gives up on Stadia, probably around 2025 or thereabouts. People simply don't have the internet to support it, and Google's infamously short organizational attention span takes its toll. It might come back, but check back in ~30 years when everybody has gigabit or better.

2. One of the big public cloud companies either stops doing public cloud stuff or that business unit gets acquired, and I think the victim will be GCP. Microsoft seems safe with its government contracts and name recognition.

3. Some nasty new nasty, globally-agreed-upon legislation comes out that effectively cripples cryptocurrency for legitimate uses. Bitcoin burns as a result, but overall, it's about as effective as the war on drugs, and some privacy coin like Monero or GRIN has its price skyrocket as the new go-to for otherwise shady transactions.

4. Politicization of everything finally reaches a breaking point and most people check out. It once again becomes a faux pas to bang on about who you're voting for and why at the family dinner table.

5. One or two large social networking companies go belly up or are acquired and unsuccessfully restructured (think Tumblr). Probably Twitter or Reddit.

6. VR grows and becomes a stable "third platform" rather than a mere niche. Facebook/Oculus proved the market demand, and standalone headsets from various companies pushing their own walled gardens come and go. Oculus becomes the market leader in this category. Valve leads with the "cadillac" PC-connected enthusiast hardware. No major quantum leaps - quality slowly improves, but no full dive or anything like that. At least one AAA game is released VR-exclusive and posts good sales numbers.

7. Full legalization of cannabis for recreational uses finally happens. One or two states hold out and keep it illegal or greatly restricted within their borders, but most states notice the tax revenue being left on the table and finally relent, and as more and more states decriminalize or legalize, the federal ban is finally lifted with surprisingly little fanfare. It becomes common to see cannabis products in convenience stores right next to cigarettes.

8. Solar continues to improve and gets ridiculously cheap. Installing a grid-tied, or even non-grid-tied, system becomes a common home improvement. Tesla will either lead the way or exit this market.

9. Nothing crazy happens with quantum computing. Some niche use cases are found, but by 2030, RSA or other algorithms based on prime factorization remain safe ways to secure data.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#404

* Places will start to become uninhabitable. Nomadic living will start to come back, though more in the form of people living in their cars. * Less use of wired internet. Wired internet subscribers decrease * Self driving cars get to 95% of situations. Automated buses start leading to weird generated bus routes working sort of like uber pool but for larger vehicles * Smaller automated vehicles pop up. A vehicle that…

The first genetically modified babies have already been born, but agree this will be more mainstream.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-third-gene-edited-baby-148002...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#405
1. Electric cars will be 25-35% of new cars sold in the US by 2030.

2. "Advanced" Smart Grid will be rolled out in some significant areas. Smart Grid will have energy storage at every tier: Grid, Municipal, Home, and Appliance. Smart Grid will control appliances in the home. Opt out of Smart Grid will be very expensive.

3. Armed militias will be formed and shots fired over freshwater in the USA.

4. Reality as a Service will allow users to choose the facts of their reality.

5. Some company will partially deliver Theranos' vision of persistent implanted health monitoring devices.

6. In 2023 a Marvel film will flop.

7. The likeness of dead actors in film becomes commonplace. It never stops being creepy to me.

8. Monoclonal Antibody drugs become much cheaper.

9. A breakthrough is made in Auto-immune diseases.

10. Ford and GM join Chrysler in merging with international automaker conglomerates (not necessarily the same one), or go out of business.

11. Tesla continues to mystify analysts. Elon Musk actually transmogrifies his soul into a tree.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#406
post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries.

Wealthy nations have produced massive emissions during their industrialization, and continue to do so on a per-capita basis. The global north has the responsibility to cut back to a greater extent so poorer countries can develop.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#407

Tech: * Rdbms will still be then backbone of most internet facing applications. * Java will still be around. So will COBOL. * Python v4 will be under development. * There will be only 3 cloud providers of any relevance (AWS, GCP, Azure).

> * There will be only 3 cloud providers of any relevance (AWS, GCP, Azure).

Is this not already true?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#409

OK these are some a very long predictions: - At least one East Asian country out of {singapore, south korea, japan, china (ROC or PRC)} legalizes Cannabis. - Microsoft extends the dominance it began in late 2010 decade. C# and F# eclipse Java as enterprise programming solutions. - Google runs into some major trouble and loses considerable market share; the biggest tumble comes on the heels of an internal, employee-le…

Is F# usage growing at all?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#410

Here's some 1. Civil war in China 2. A new, significant non iOS/Android OS in mobile 3. Uber/Lyft will gradually shift to a unionized, national taxi company 4. Nothing significant will be done about Climate Change, and it won't matter. Some new environmental issue will be talked about instead. 5. A third political party will become significant in the US 6. There will be a major Christian missionary movement from the…

Any rationale for 8 ?
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