Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

- Current LLMs being seen more and more like commodities

- We'll start see a LOT more companies making their own LLM

- Capital stops pretending everything is fine & we finally see the stock market reflect what's been slowly bubbling up socially (people 'feeling poorer', trust declining, consumption becoming more cynical)

Someone is busted falsifying a race horse’s pedigree to hide use of a cloned sire.

Entropy increases

Putin dies, significant palace intrigue follows, but the war in Ukraine continues on unfortunately.

- Multiple interest rate cuts instead of 1

- News about prosecutions for insider trading on Polymarket.

- Bitcoin will touch a multi-year low. MSTR becomes insolvent.

- Google Gemini will overtake ChatGPT in DAU.

- Software will be more commoditized and the authors’ “taste” will become its primary differentiator.

- Fiserv will increase 50% or more in market cap (I said the same thing last year about PayPal, and I was wrong)

- Warren Buffett will pass away. (I hope I’m wrong) :-(

- Google will drop the price of Gemini Ultra to $125 a month or less, Anthropic and OpenAI will follow suit.

- Logitech will start making a dedicated vibe-coding microphone-whatever that means.

For this principle to become widely known, it needs to be communicated in a more succinct way. 400 pages is too much to ask people to invest.

Even so, as far as I understand the gist of what the paper says, the principle helps make explicit some intuition I’ve had about design for a long time.

Chinas market power will continue grow around the globe. There might be some issues with there economy but they will increase exports in all relevant inudstries.

The Solar revolution in Afrika will continue, driven by even cheaper chinese goods. It will be a story around the globe how much Afrika is changing.

CATLs Sodium Batterie will reduce prices of energy stores to a new unexpected low. Cheaper faster than expected driving further some success stories.

Germany (were i'm from) will continue struggling and it will get worse for the automotive sector (especially for the suppliers).

Due to economic issues in germany, the far right nazi party AfD will continue winning a few more % points.

Some car maker will bring a relevant cheap globally available EV car. I suspect BYD, which will increase public awareness of germans automotive sector or automotive around the world. Automotive will start becoming a commodity. Revenue per car will go down.

Climate will see some new record. Either more and stronger storms, more heat or/and more flud rain. We will talk about it temporarily and then continue going back to ignoring it.

= USA vs. the rest of the world:

Stuff will continue as shitty as they are. Companies will not compensate the inflation americans have seen so they continue to struggle.

There will be 2-3 attacks on public figures. If the economy will continue downwoards, potentially also some CEO or very well known Rich Person (Musk, Suckerberg, Bill Gates (after Epstein files), Jeff Bezos)

Epstein files will come out, but due to every public media playing it down and no one caring anymore about it anyway (we all know, he is dead, Maxwell might get out of jail) and it will not lead to a coop. I will learn the full extend of Bill Gates affairs and will strike him from my list of people i thought have a positive story arc.

Republicans will lose Midterms harder than usual/landslide style.

Conflict between Trump and the house and senate then this will lead to either Trump doing more golfing or further sliding of the USA in an authoritarien direction. The only issue here is, Trump is to old and fragile, he couldn't care less about his power because he just does what he wants anything but he can't come up with a more elaborate "USA Trump Corp" strategy to take really over. While in parallel authorian stuff depends on a person and there is no one really there. Vance? No way.

Hey lets bet on Vance and the wife of the Kirk guy coming together and the republicans liking it that much but no i don't think this will play out.

Obama Care's budget cut might be a trigger point for something.

Russia:

Russia will continue influencing US Politics, but economy will continue going down. We are coming to the magic 5 year mark, Ukraines strategy attacking russian oil is working but Russia is Russia, people can suffer there.

Derek Huffman will die.

AI:

AI will continue growing. Progress will still be seen in a lot of different areas. Nvidia will focus on increasing production and will see another Hit with Rubin. We might see some very special new thing. Perhaps material science discovery, mathematics or generall so much better LLMs.

It will continue affecting jobs around the world. Especially in fields were GenAI is already really good. Arts. There will be more AI music on Radio and in the Top Charts. GenAI for images will continue reducing jobs for 2d and 3d, advertising, texting, translations.

Robots will continue progress and impress us.

Luigi:

He will get lifelong prison sentence :(

Musk:

SpaceX will be a successful launch, while Tesla struggles in car sales, he will continue hyping and overshadowed through SpaceX, Tesla will not fall yet. The Selfdriving thing will kill someone, his robot will not be ready.

GTA 6 will be out and it will be awesome!