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Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

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Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#41
post #27
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and inflation already seems to be dying down anyway. I̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶k̶n̶o̶w̶ ̶i̶f̶ ̶I̶'̶m̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶o̶p̶t̶i̶m̶i̶s̶t̶i̶c̶.̶ ̶I̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶k̶ ̶i̶n̶f̶l̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶s̶t̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶8̶.̶5̶%̶ ̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶-̶t̶o̶-̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶l̶y̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶0̶.̶6̶%̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶p̶r̶e̶v̶i̶o̶u̶s̶ ̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶.̶ ̶W̶e̶'̶d̶ ̶n̶e̶e̶d̶ ̶s̶e̶v̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶d̶r̶o̶p̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶c̶l̶u̶d̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶i̶n̶f̶l̶a̶t̶i̶o…

You're not ever going to see long-term, broad price drops. That would be deflation. Your statement appears highly misleading, as if you don't understand the topic. Prices (in the U.S.) did not rise at all in July, so it's not clear what you could mean by "8.5% month-to-month" which, as stated, would be a spectacular and unprecedented rate. The month-over-month inflation in July was none. Prices rose 8.5% vs. year-ago…

You're right. I don't know what I'm talking about.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#42
post #12

I find the whole "economic gloom" sentiment a bit odd. We're at extremely low unemployment, and GDP took a small dip in Q1/Q2 but is projected to start growing again in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 is down less than 10% from it's all-time high. Inflation was an issue for a while, but a lot of that seemed to be driven more by temporary supply constraints in certain sectors than any actual currency devaluat…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#43

In the crypto ecosystem the compliance and anti-fraud space is doing very well (it's about time): https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/24/doppel-helps-nft-projects-... https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/20/ai-based-startu... https://www.theblock.co/post/159791/center-raises-11-million Shameless plug - Doppel and Optic are direct competitors for what I've been building: https://fnftf.io/ (We're the only solution that…

I don’t know about much about the space but my first impression is the initial pitch is confusing.

Fight NFT Fraud sounds like a service for company buying/selling NFTs, and needs to stop attacks on their system and is actually slightly vague.

Seems like people can check if a specific NFT is stolen or improperly minted?

Lead with that. CarFax for NFT (but even more important)

Is that NFT Stolen? Check now.

Then after the submission box can go into more detail.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#44
post #35
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Knowing people that make under 60k a year, and how harder their lives got and how hard it is to pay back loans and other obligations they where ulitmately strong armed into taking to improve their position. Not to mention how alot of western nations have a large majority of people are pay check to pay check regardless of their tax bracket. Working class is a good litmus of how the economy is doing vs S&P because spec…

Having debt is not the worst thing in an inflationary period. The inflation reduces the value of your debt.

ONLY if your wages keep up with inflation.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#45
post #12

I find the whole "economic gloom" sentiment a bit odd. We're at extremely low unemployment, and GDP took a small dip in Q1/Q2 but is projected to start growing again in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 is down less than 10% from it's all-time high. Inflation was an issue for a while, but a lot of that seemed to be driven more by temporary supply constraints in certain sectors than any actual currency devaluat…

I think it’s easy to miss some of the very real pain lower income folks are experiencing right now if you’re not in their bracket. Inflation causes excess capital to flow into assets, which the poor don’t have and HN commenters do.

The inflation issue is absolutely not solved. A single month from 9.1 -> 8.6 is FAR too soon for victory. I suspect the recent rally in the market comes from the assumption that the Fed will back off and that we have indeed already experienced peak inflation.

CPI of 8.6 is still unacceptable and my guess is we’re gonna see more rate hikes and QT than the markets expect. That’ll mean mortgage rates go up, companies will have more difficulty servicing debt…etc

We’re not in the clear quite yet!

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#46
post #35
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Knowing people that make under 60k a year, and how harder their lives got and how hard it is to pay back loans and other obligations they where ulitmately strong armed into taking to improve their position. Not to mention how alot of western nations have a large majority of people are pay check to pay check regardless of their tax bracket. Working class is a good litmus of how the economy is doing vs S&P because spec…

Having debt is not the worst thing in an inflationary period. The inflation reduces the value of your debt.

This is true for investment debt like real estate. If you're taking on debt to pay for basic necessities because salary rises don't match inflation it's an altogether different situation.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#47
post #35
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Knowing people that make under 60k a year, and how harder their lives got and how hard it is to pay back loans and other obligations they where ulitmately strong armed into taking to improve their position. Not to mention how alot of western nations have a large majority of people are pay check to pay check regardless of their tax bracket. Working class is a good litmus of how the economy is doing vs S&P because spec…

Having debt is not the worst thing in an inflationary period. The inflation reduces the value of your debt.

depends if its fixed rate or not

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#48
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Knowing people that make under 60k a year, and how harder their lives got and how hard it is to pay back loans and other obligations they where ulitmately strong armed into taking to improve their position. Not to mention how alot of western nations have a large majority of people are pay check to pay check regardless of their tax bracket. Working class is a good litmus of how the economy is doing vs S&P because spec…

It's always been hard for people in those income buckets. But if the question is: are we in a massive economic downturn over the past half year, it's really hard for me to look at the data and answer with a yes. One thing I'm looking at is: https://realtimeinequality.org/ And that's showing that for the first time in over a decade, the bottom half is seeing real wage/wealth gains, even after recent inflation. Am I mi…

Wages were rising at a similar rate before the covid hit. Remove that dip and continue the line and it would end up in about the same place it is now.

Wealth started growing since about 2019 too.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#49
post #12

I find the whole "economic gloom" sentiment a bit odd. We're at extremely low unemployment, and GDP took a small dip in Q1/Q2 but is projected to start growing again in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 is down less than 10% from it's all-time high. Inflation was an issue for a while, but a lot of that seemed to be driven more by temporary supply constraints in certain sectors than any actual currency devaluat…

I think you know the answer: > The recent interest rate hikes also didn't seem to have nearly as much impact on the markets as everyone feared they would. Markets aren’t rational

And, as we all know, they will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Re: Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

#50
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having debt is not the worst thing in an inflationary period. The inflation reduces the value of your debt.

ONLY if your wages keep up with inflation.

Exactly. Unless of course your income is so high that day to day expenditures are basically a rounding error. Then you can profit handsomely from other people's misery. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer is particularly true during times of high inflation (so long as not catastrophic).
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