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Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

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Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#41
post #22

Reduce overhead as much as possible. Reduce debt (least safe first) as much as possible. Invest in necessities that you and your family can consume/use. People have all kinds of theories about what will be best currency, and stockpile stuff they can't consume/use. Cover your basis first. Invest in any skill that will enable you to produce something.

I forgot to mention, tend to your relationships. Stop wasting time on the ones that don't benefit you, and start strengthening the ones that do. Be prepared to help the people you care about, and possibly share a home.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#42

I quit my job during the last recession to do a startup (which ultimately failed). A lot of people thought I was crazy, but in hindsight it was the right move, as I learned a lot of things that I was able to parlay into a 2nd startup.

Arguably recessions are terrible times to get jobs, so starting a startup might actually be a good thing. I've paid the bills with my startup and contract work, back when the tech industry was lackluster.

Contracting is not bad either. A company today might freeze hiring expecting things to get worse in 6 months. Nobody wants to fire, for economic, legal, and emotional reasons. So people are much more willing to outsource work, even at higher prices.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#43
post #20
post #7

Start a new business. Recessions are great for that especially if you already have funding or if you can bootstrap. Did it in 2001 and 2008 as well; great stuff. I would say though; be careful with with spending cash. Depending on your situation, it might be harder to come by. Many people I know who got fired in 2001/2008 and who had too high mortgages, debt and little cash fell on hard times for a few years.

Could you elaborate on why it's a good idea to start a business in a recession?

As I commented in another thread, it's because it's harder to get a job and get a raise. I took a full time job because it's where the money is, but back when the tech industry wasn't as hot, it's easier to make money as a business or contracting.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#45
post #30

Don't save cash, invest. Inflation will eat your money if you save the cash under your bed. Open new business, people will stop spending on unnecessary things, but think what every people needs every day. Labor will be cheaper, think about that. 38 years living in Argentina, you move fast or you die.

With stuff like crypto and stocks plummeting, they might be worse than holding on to the cash.

Personal skills are always a great investment IMO. If a country's economy implodes, there are still other countries doing better and hiring. Someone with good skills is going to have an easier time.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#46
post #44

As the dot-com bubble collapsed, I enrolled in university and had a steady decade of a meager but survivable income: first living off student loans, then as a TA in grad school. Came out of it with a degree that helped me get an adult job.

I’ve been thinking about going back to school anyway, but its really hard to escape the golden handcuffs (and also a pain to deal with the education system as a non traditional student). Figure I can wait till I start feeling the downturn.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#47
post #44

As the dot-com bubble collapsed, I enrolled in university and had a steady decade of a meager but survivable income: first living off student loans, then as a TA in grad school. Came out of it with a degree that helped me get an adult job.

I’ve been thinking about going back to school anyway, but its really hard to escape the golden handcuffs (and also a pain to deal with the education system as a non traditional student). Figure I can wait till I start feeling the downturn.

I felt old going back in my mid 20s, but frankly, I crushed it. I treated it as a full-time job; the kids I was competing with did not. Didn't lose the "big fish in a small pond" feeling until I was taking grad courses.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#48
1. DON'T save. DON'T sell equity (ie. Don't raise capital). DO take on as much debt as feasible. DO use said debt to employ the inevitable cheap labor and capital goods to run profitable ventures.

2. Yes, I was laid off from a start-up then joined as one of the first at an already profitable pre-seed start-up that would raise $20M with 3. Mistake #1: I saved instead of doing the smart thing and taking on massive debt. My savings and small debts inflated away over the next decade. My colleagues who opted for large debts had their large debts inflated away and faired much better than I did in the end.

Mistake #2: After the highly successful exit I joined a start-up with the hot "growth before revenue" strategy. The only thing that grew faster than our user base was the dilution of our equity. Investors won while we gave up years of work for a slice of the pie that got disgustingly small for the risk we took as founders.

To sum it all up: Profit before growth. Leverage the things the recession makes cheap due to other people/businesses no longer being able to afford them (e.g. talent). Fund profitable new business with debt. If you sell equity, only do it after proving that you can do it with debt and exhausting the option for debt. Despite VC funds drying up, you'll be the belle of the ball if you've proven you have created a reliable money printer.

Caveat: If you can't make a reliable money printer, find someone who has and join them.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree except for the part about "buy low, sell high." Timing the market is a fool's errand, and it gets no easier during a time of recession.

I am shocked. No one has yet said 'Buy Crypto' :)

Unironically, my friends who ran up their credit cards to buy Bitcoin during the last recession are rich and secure now because of it. They thank me for turning them onto it.

Unfortunately for me, I followed conventional advice. I saved a cash emergency fund and only allocated ~20% of my investment budget to Bitcoin. The cash inflated away and I have orders of magnitude less Bitcoin than my friends.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for the recession?

#50

I’d like some advice please. I am currently freelancing with one major client. I only work 3 days a week which is great and I make a good amount of money. Client is a small company, seems financially secure, but eh could also go belly up I suppose. They offered me a fixed contract but it would be for less money than I now make freelancing, +4 days a week. Should I take less cash and less freedom for the security that…

I'd say no.. go fill the other days in the week with more clients. Keep the flexibility to say no. My 2 cents. 20+ years of consulting experience working mostly with single clients or small business.

This is 100% the correct answer.

Their offer is BAD for you:

One single client puts you in a situation of risk when they pivot or get acquired or otherwise cut your work.

4 days a week makes it harder to have time for another client.

Less money for more work, ludicrous

So instead

Go and find another client, or better yet two new ones and when you have multiple clients prioritize the work for the best paying clients while others can wait till you have gaps.

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