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Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

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41–50 of 59 posts

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#41
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI systems can search through millions of molecules to find a drug. How is that different from Thomas Edison trying 1000 filaments for a light bulb?

A.I. can generate a million art pieces or a love song, but it won’t feel the same as a just one from a human. At least not yet.

Unless you're autistic or awkward there's no easier way to deceive people than to get them to perceive that "spark" of another being. Look at how people see faces in plant stems, rock formations on Mars, etc.

One of the few things G. W. Bush regrets is that time he said he looked in Vladimir Putin's eyes and got a sense of his soul.

A.I. search is more creative than most people think; Edison himself said "Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration."

People have been writing programs since the late 1960s that imitate the later works of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piet_Mondrian

these might even fool an art historian if you made them with an oil painting robot.

ELIZA could pass as a human somewhat in the 1960s. On a day when I'm feeling awkward I feel envious of GPT-3 which, being a pile of nothing but biases devoid of understanding, passes as a neurotypical really well.

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#42
If humanity in 4,000 BC lost 1,000 years of technology, then things might very well be the same today.

If humanity in 1900 AD lost 100 years of technology, then it would be very noticeable, but would not threaten extinction.

If humanity in 2022 lost 50 years of technology, billions would die.

To me, singularity is when humanity relies on the present advance of technology, were any stalling would collapse the entire species.

Snowpiercer (2013) involves this sort of thing.

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#43

For me: when General Purpose Intelligence (GI) systems can build better GI systems. Note that it's not proven that this is even possible: the only GI systems we know about (organic brains) so far have failed to do so, despite trying hard. And I don't believe those organic brains are anywhere near to succeed, because I doubt seriously that the current approach (programs running on transistors) is capable of producing…

If it's down to a physical processing power limitation then I don't see any showstoppers to humans making a bigger version of a brain. It's not very elegant to just do it bigger, but it at least highlights an avenue to improving existing systems. I mean we got here without any sort of intelligent hand, surely there is no mystical barrier to the improvements we can make.

Well just bigger might not cut it, the biggest brain we know about already has about almost 10 kg of weight (belongs to a whale). We want better, not bigger.

You say it yourself, there was no intelligent hand involved in the creation of brains (but another process called evolution). This just supports my point that a GI system creating a better GI system to our knowledge has not yet happened.

I agree there's no mystical barrier, but maybe a conceptual: is there a limit to our cognitive capabilities that prevents us from designing something better than us? I don't know, but it hasn't been disproved yet either.

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#44
I still think the original definition is the most useful, and also gives the greatest intuition as to why it is called the "singularity" and not some other name.

"It is a point where our old models must be discarded and a new reality rules, a point that will loom vaster and vaster over human affairs until the notion becomes a commonplace." - https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity...

What I like about this definition is that its philosophical utility is precisely that is a name for the place where our expectations about the future break down completely, and this is a useful concept to have a name for.

It is true that the most commonly explored particular manifestation of this is an AI technological breakthrough, but using the definition contextualizes that as just one possibility in a set of possibilities, including some "Singularities" that have already happened.

In particular, try to imagine explaining the modern world to a Sumerian peasant farmer in X,000 BC. Good luck with that. You probably don't understand the world they live in very well either, but they can't even conceptualize our world. There's at least one Singularity in human history between that farmer and us, and it's not hard to draw out at least a few more.

However, it can be challenging to point out "where" or "when" they occurred.

From this we can draw out a few more lessons. Singularities are relative to the observer. You generally can't "pass through" one, because as you would approach one, your ability to prognosticate the future reasonably grows through it, and so relative to you, in time, it recedes. Even if the hard AI takeoff is going to happen, we are even now learning more about what an AI world looks like and how it works, so even in that scenario, our ability to understand it improves as we approach it. Hard, species-wide singularities that give no warning and no opportunities to significantly adapt in advance have generally not happened yet, even as like I said, clearly, between that Sumerian farmer and us there has to have been at least one.

Hard AI takeoff is one. But another one that is back in the news is nuclear war. That would also constitute a singularity in its own way; we could fall back on our understanding of previous civilizations at lower tech levels but it's still very difficult to predict what would happen in the aftermath of such a thing. There's a few other possibilities. But what one might call a "hard" singularity, one that completely blindsides the entire species, hasn't generally happened, and there's still good reason to suspect they're not likely.

As this post demonstrates, I find this formulation far more interesting for thinking and saying things than the vague "future tech might be weird" ideas that tend to float about. You need the concept of anchoring the singularity to particular points of view to be able to say much about them, I think. Trying to treat it as an objective event is difficult, precisely because they recede from the observer.

This formulation also disposes of the "Rapture of the Nerds" scenario. There is no reason to believe that the singularity somehow must be accompanied by "transcending the physical world", there is no reason to believe that such an outcome would even be good for humans in specific or humans in general, and there's no reason that singularities must be limited to technological process. That's just one particular part of the space (and IMHO, a very small one when it comes to hypothetical transcending the physical world) that happens to have some scifi stories written about it, but is far from the most likely possibility.

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#45
> I define it as when machines understand people.

I'd define it as when people understand people.

- - - -

Going back to the source, to von Neumann, "the singularity" was literally a mathematical singularity in the curves of accelerating technology.

Vinge thought about self-improving artificial intelligence:

> Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.

> Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.

https://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html

He was a little precipitous in his estimates of the time frame, unless you count the GAIs we've already created. It seems clear to me that we have already built self-improving artificial entities, to wit: Google, Facebook, etc... are GAIs. I think they are cyborgs, with whole humans as neurons. I suspect they even have self-awareness "carried" on the substratum of their human components' self-awareness.

- - - -

But to me the real singularity isn't going to take place in cyberspace, the real singularity happens when people start learning how to operate their own minds more effectively. This is happening already too, but "the future is here it's just not evenly distributed". Without going on and on about it, there is a global current of cybernetic psychology (happening largely outside of the view of academic psychology) that is changing and transforming humanity, or, more precisely, allowing humanity to transform itself.

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#47

Probably you should provide more context? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singularity?wprov=sfti1 Singularity to me is within a black hole, an astrophysics concept.

OP is referring to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Both of those are absurd.

You hear statements like "physics breaks down at the singularity of a black hole".

Physics (the real Physics) doesn't break down ever, it's your theory that breaks down, it's your theory that is wrong.

General relativity gets a lot of things right, it seems to explain what happens outside of a black hole well. In the usual approach to the Schwarzchild solution (a black hole with no spin and no electric charge) you usually start in a coordinate system that has a mathematical singularity at the event horizon then make a coordinate change that makes that singularity go away (with the deceptive feature that the event horizon seems to be a global instead of local property of the black hole.)

My belief is that in quantum gravity that coordinate translation isn't valid so the classical picture of the black hole interior is "not even wrong". It drives me nuts that every week a new QG paper comes out that the media describe as "a resolution of the Hawking paradox" despite the fact that Hawking admitted he was wrong about the paradox and there is no paradox a long time ago.

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI systems can search through millions of molecules to find a drug. How is that different from Thomas Edison trying 1000 filaments for a light bulb?

https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/limits-literature in this way.

Language is a rathole.

Interesting AI synthetic chemistry systems work ab initio modeling how a molecule interacts with proteins.

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#49
post #28

Honestly? I define it as a sci-fi fantasy concept that's not worth taking seriously.

Singularities are illusions that occur when models break down. As an apparent singularity approaches either there will be a new model that reveals previously unknown information or there will be a crash.

Yet it's interesting that the presence of singularities does not lead communities to abandon those theories.

Re: Ask HN: How do you define the singularity?

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/limits-literature in this way.

Language is a rathole. Interesting AI synthetic chemistry systems work ab initio modeling how a molecule interacts with proteins.

and where do they get their training dat... oh,right, literature.
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