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Ask HN: How are you hedging against inflation?

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Re: Ask HN: How are you hedging against inflation?

#41
post #38
post #19

Inflation-linked bonds offer a direct hedge over inflation. Not exactly sure what the downside is, so you’ll have to look that up (or someone else may comment on it). Crypto/gold/real estate are not hedges against inflation. They’re pretty wild bets. If you do this, make sure you diversify... On a side note, inflation is a good thing cause it makes you want to invest your money. Seeking a refuge value is not playing…

Where / how do you find inflation linked bonds?

Look for "TIPS" like $VTIP

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VTIP

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp

Re: Ask HN: How are you hedging against inflation?

#42
These videos sell because they induce fear, so stop watching them. I think the only acceptable resource (that's fear driven) is Real Vision Finance because they regularly bring guys from the other side.

If you think there is inflation in the U.S., check the Chicago real-estate market. It has been in a depression in the last decade, more so in the last year. There is an imbalance between US cities which is inflating some cities and depressing some others. Hyper-inflation occurs when, regardless, everything is increasing in price because of monetary debasement. I'll start worrying when Chicago real-estate market start a bull-run without a change in fundamentals.

On the other hand, if you are living in a hot city, you are definitively experiencing local inflation. If you are able to move to a lower-cost area, you should definitively do that. Be mindful also, that shortages can cause price spikes but these are not (monetary driven) inflation. If the suez canal is blocked by a ship, you might see prices spike for a while until traffic is back to normal. The pandemic has caused lots of disruption and multiple goods have experienced that effect.

Re: Ask HN: How are you hedging against inflation?

#43
post #7
post #5

Honestly, don't get your economic advice from youtube. Almost any introductory econ textbook will be more educative. Almost zero actual economists think inflation is coming to the US. It's only the (conservative) pundits that produce these unfounded fears. Expanding the money in circulation alone is not enough to trigger inflation (see 2008+).

In just 16 years at 2.6% CPI, money will lose 50% of its purchasing power. Everyone should protect their savings against inflation.

Quick check on the arithmetic?

With continuous compounding, 1/2 = (1-2.6%)^n = 0.974^n n = log(1/2) / log(0.974) = 26.3 y

Same answer on a Deci-Lon.

With annual compounding, HP-12c gives 27y

Re: Ask HN: How are you hedging against inflation?

#44
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In just 16 years at 2.6% CPI, money will lose 50% of its purchasing power. Everyone should protect their savings against inflation.

Quick check on the arithmetic? With continuous compounding, 1/2 = (1-2.6%)^n = 0.974^n n = log(1/2) / log(0.974) = 26.3 y Same answer on a Deci-Lon. With annual compounding, HP-12c gives 27y

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: How are you hedging against inflation?

#45
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In just 16 years at 2.6% CPI, money will lose 50% of its purchasing power. Everyone should protect their savings against inflation.

Quick check on the arithmetic? With continuous compounding, 1/2 = (1-2.6%)^n = 0.974^n n = log(1/2) / log(0.974) = 26.3 y Same answer on a Deci-Lon. With annual compounding, HP-12c gives 27y

I said 50% not 100% :) At 2.5% in 16 years $100 is $148.45
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