Ask HN: Predictions for 2021? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#41

Post by yen223 » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 2:24 AM UTC

csomar wrote: post #10

Historical 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2017: none? 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 2013: none? 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 2011: https://news.ycomb…

Click the link for 2020

cmd-f 'virus': 0 results

Predictions are hard

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#42

Post by ericb » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 2:45 AM UTC

amw-zero wrote: post #40

ericb wrote: post #6

By the end of the year, we'll have started a new roaring 20's. People are pent-up--eager to travel, excited to be with friends, vacation, go to bars, party, see movies. Pent-up demand will help kick-start the economy. Work from home is normalized. Commercial real estate prices will drop as companies pare-down their office space. Wework has better prospects than ever. Travel stocks and in person events go crazy. A ren…

The thought that WeWork will ever recover is comical. I’d be surprised if they are alive by summer.

Let me clarify that a bit--their concept has better real business prospects than ever. I'm not commenting on their ability to match their over-promises, their leadership, capital structure, or their misalignment to their valuation. I suppose their ability to stay alive is apart of their prospects, though.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#43

Post by mbrodersen » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 3:50 AM UTC

GDP will continue to increase in the US while a majority of the population will get poorer.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#44

Post by gnusty_gnurc » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 4:07 AM UTC

muttantt wrote: post #38

1. Major earthquake on the US west coast 2. Bitcoin will hit $60K but will also touch again $5K in 2021 3. Trump will remain President 4. $VIX will hit $100

Most interesting ones!

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#45

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 4:49 AM UTC

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#46

Post by dnautics » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 4:52 AM UTC

jokethrowaway wrote: post #34

Prolonged lockdowns and new habits kill 75% of small businesses and greatly increase inequality as the richest 10% stay at home saving/investing instead of spending. This will trigger an economic collapse which will bring down the eurozone. Germany will want country rated euros to avoid having to bail Italy. House prices in Europe will drop to a rent / value rate similar to the USA, as property owners scrap for money…

I think eurozone collapse will begin in germany, centered around the collapse of deutsche bank. No other scenario will make sense. Although it will still be bad, the uk will have dodged a bigger bullet with brexit.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#47

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 4:52 AM UTC

ploika wrote: post #28

Speaking from Ireland. - Car traffic will be only slightly less than 2019 levels, despite rolling lockdowns all year. - Brexit will start to be noticed on supermarket shelves. - The built-up stresses of 2020/2021 will turn some relatively minor issue into a genuine political crisis, in a straw-that-broke-the-camel's-back situation. It might bring down the government.

Do you think Brexit reaching a conclusion could spur reunification between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (a “United Ireland”)?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#48

Post by azangru » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 4:53 AM UTC

muttantt wrote: post #38

1. Major earthquake on the US west coast 2. Bitcoin will hit $60K but will also touch again $5K in 2021 3. Trump will remain President 4. $VIX will hit $100

> Trump will remain President

How?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#49

Post by dnautics » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 4:54 AM UTC

nealabq wrote: post #25

2021 will be one of the hottest years on record. Wildfires will rampage across the western US in the last half of the year. Oil prices will decline to $30/barrel. The Dow Jones industrial average will break 40K. Interest rates will remain low. Employment levels will be very slow to recover to pre-COVID levels. Tensions between China and USA will increase, but will decrease between USA and Russia.

> Tensions between China and USA will increase, but will decrease between USA and Russia.

Unlikely. Biden once said to putin directly that "he had no soul".

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#50

Post by redis_mlc » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 5:01 AM UTC

azangru wrote: post #48

muttantt wrote: post #38

1. Major earthquake on the US west coast 2. Bitcoin will hit $60K but will also touch again $5K in 2021 3. Trump will remain President 4. $VIX will hit $100

> Trump will remain President How?

Trump has the power to redo the elections through his 2018 order, plus various other laws.

(You don't know about that because the MSM is concealing it from the public.)