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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#41

Post by scottishfiction »

AlexMuir wrote: post #17

I wish I could put my finger on it, but there is a huge disconnect between economic reality and the current financial situation across most of the world. It seems to me, perhaps simplistically, that every central bank is simply issuing money to generate growth and this can't be sustainable. Our biggest industry would appear to be buying, renting and selling assets to each other. My apartment overlooks a city of 1 mil…

I’d be interested to know what city you’re talking about. Are you limiting ‘something of value’ to manufacturing? A great deal of the UK economy is service based. I’d be amazed if only 5% of the city’s population were producing goods or services used by those outside the city.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#42

Post by flaque »

nickgiordano wrote: post #37
flaque wrote: post #23

Here's to looking silly in 2030: - very few desktop applications will exist, they will have moved to web assembly powered browser applications - way more people will work from home and most "work" software will attempt to support this through real-time collaboration powered by CRDT/MRDTs. - the dat:// protocol, ipfs, and other attempts at creating a decentralized internet will not take off, but the concepts will have…

I think car ownership might change to subscription service model vs. outright buying a car, but still mostly private vehicle "ownership" in 2030 outside of dense urban areas. Maybe the avg. car ownership per household will drop dramatically, from ~2 to 1 or less, with the rise of ridesharing/public transit.

> might change to subscription service model vs. outright buying a car

This is what I mean. Car ownership will be a hold-over from folks who still own a car from a long while ago.

Most people will just subscribe to a subscription rideshare service.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#44

Post by keldaris »

liamcardenas wrote: post #11

I am not willing to make this prediction, but I’d be interested in hearing if anyone thinks we will NOT see fully autonomous vehicles on the road by 2030. Even in 2010, it seemed just around the corner — but that turned out to be wrong.

Technically, we already have fully autonomous vehicles on the road, they're just not generally allowed to be used as such and have obvious failure modes not shared by human drivers.

However, if by this you mean "autonomous vehicles that are clearly superior to reasonable human drivers under all reasonably frequent scenarios (including inclement weather) in any developed country" then yes, I feel very confident we won't see that in the next decade, probably two. I think the hyperoptimistic HN bubble is extremely far off the mark with respect to autonomous vehicles and always has been.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#45

Post by Panini_Jones »

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #28

1. Trust in journalists and news publications will continue to crater due to their inability to resist clickbait, sloppy ethic controls, and constant hyperboles. 2. China will enter a pronounced recession that is it unable to hide from the world. 3. The EU will lose at-least one more member nation after the United Kingdom leaves. 4. The credibility of scientist and research universities will hit all time lows as the…

> 3. The EU will lose at-least one more member nation after the United Kingdom leaves.

Why?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#46

Post by gfodor »

There will be a new American political party that garners mainstream popularity (possibly inhabiting the corpse of one of the parties existing in 2020.)

China will fall in power as investment from the west decouples.

Nuclear energy will make a PR comeback.

There will be at least one scientific breakthrough surrounding the underlying nature of consciousness. Optimism about the possibility of AGI among experts will increase significantly.

Young adults will be spending a majority of their time interacting with friends embodied as virtual avatars (on traditional devices and VR/AR devices)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#47

Post by sandov »

ben509 wrote: post #38

1. Fusion reactors break even. 2. No progress in identifying dark matter or understanding quantum gravity. 3. At least one of the major social media corporations are overtaken by a new competitor, e.g. Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Youtube, etc.

I think young people don't use Facebook anymore.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#48

Post by JohnFen »

liamcardenas wrote: post #11

I am not willing to make this prediction, but I’d be interested in hearing if anyone thinks we will NOT see fully autonomous vehicles on the road by 2030. Even in 2010, it seemed just around the corner — but that turned out to be wrong.

> if anyone thinks we will NOT see fully autonomous vehicles on the road by 2030.

I don't think we will in any widespread way. Perhaps we'll see some in very limited deployments, both in terms of the number of vehicles and what roads they'll operate on.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#50

Post by chrisco255 »

- Gene editing and CRISPR advances lead to first viable and legal designer babies

- Longevity research extends life expectancy by at least 10 years

- Cold war with China is still ongoing

- New battery tech finally makes electric cars cheap enough to be practical, boutique electric automakers proliferate

- driverless transportation exists on pre-defined routes, mainly powering shuttle and transit buses, but not able to navigate all roads autonomously yet

- still no general AI

- blockchain based loans and financial instruments grow by at least 100 fold; decentralized finance hits mainstream

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