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Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#41

Post by briandear »

sintaxi wrote: post #20
dv_dt wrote: post #4

In ten years we will know one way or another if short term profits matter more to us than the long term prosperity of our civilization. And not just individuals, but how our overall system of collective government responds to individuals at a national and global level will be answered in the test.

What did you purchase today and from whom did you purchase it? "Never mind what they are selling, its what your buying" --FUGAZI

Quoting Fugazi in HN officially wins the internet for today! Such an apt quote though!

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#42

Post by mchannon »

PopeDotNinja wrote: post #28
mchannon wrote: post #21

Call me crazy, but I think H.G. Wells' prediction of the human race diverging into two is less than half as crazy as it was 10 years ago. One race, indoors-oriented, tribal, authoritarian, amoral, warlike, domineering. Another race, outdoors-oriented, disorganized, vain, self-obsessed, subjugated. I bet you will have minimal difficulty envisioning every person you know and which track they're on. That's more of a 100…

> the human race diverging into two is less than half as crazy as it was 10 years ago Any thoughts on how that would happen? Genetic engineering? Divergent populations? Earthbound and formerly Earthbound?

It's not would happen, it's is happening.

The difference is preexisting, but only beginning to get expressed. Some people resist authority and don't believe what they're told, and some people crave authority and want to be told they're right. It's not an insult; it's actually probably an evolutionarily superior approach to tend toward the latter. Tribes have distinct advantages.

Increased CO2 levels, indoors and out, are giving rise to increased levels of Oxytocin in everybody's body. It's more a tribal hormone than a bonding hormone. This is where the increased expression is coming from, I believe.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#43

Post by nine_k »

samblr wrote: post #6

Robo-servants at home. Imagine not doing any mundane tasks at home (cooking, cleaning etc) On the worse side : if there are robos at home. There will be sure outside in streets too. So we will have to figure out new jobs for ourselves.

We already have plenty. The washing machine knows what to do with the clothes. The dishwasher knows what to do with kitchenware. The robotic vacuum cleaner knows how to navigate and clean your house.

They are single-function, and not autonomous. This makes them massively cheaper and safer.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#44

Post by lifeformed »

nuguy wrote: post #25
vowelless wrote: post #10

You ask for prediction, not wishes. So here goes: We will have a major recession, much bigger impact than the previous one. This will curtail development. It’s possible climate effects will continue to become more severe. This could lead to human displacement in heavily populated Asian coastal towns. Will be compounded due to the recession. Left wing and right wing polarization will grow and be compounded due to the…

What is going to cause the next recession?

Student loan bubble?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#45

Post by eldavido »

brendonjohn wrote: post #19

This probably sounds crazy... I think in the next ten years there will be a cultural shift away from carrying any form of electronics on yourself. That's including mobile phones and media devices.

One of the things I find most striking when watching old movies is the general attitude of people toward tech.

If you look at movies from the 70s and 80s, conspicuous display of tech was common. Look at stereo systems of the time, and how people treated mobile phones (they were huge and conspicuously displayed). This partially echoes the "machine age" [1] of the early 20th century, a a time when tech was seen as "modern" and a force for progress.

Whereas these days, we want things to be light, invisible, and out of the way. That's a major change in attitude.

I actually feel we might see fewer "screens" in the next few years if the combination of voice and AI becomes powerful enough that most things can be done by voice or thought. I think more and more decision-making (things like which plane to book/flight to take/etc) will be made by automated systems that know our preferences and we'll be picking from fewer and fewer menus. Sort of like a human assistant, but available to the masses and more accurate. Google's Duplex is a big step in this direction. The key is ceding more decision-making authority to software.

In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if we all just have earphones, either over-the-ear, or implanted in our heads, in 15 years. The broader theme is that I think we'll want things to be invisible rather than visible.

I also think you're right that the rich will want less of this stuff. There's already a huge socioeconomic difference in how people use tech. Look at how a rich family eats in the US today vs. a poor family. Rich families put their phones away, poor families spend the entire dinner posting stuff on Snap. Just walk into a burger king vs. a fine dining restaurant to see that trend in action.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_Age

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#46

Post by baddox »

brendonjohn wrote: post #19

This probably sounds crazy... I think in the next ten years there will be a cultural shift away from carrying any form of electronics on yourself. That's including mobile phones and media devices.

I find it very hard to believe that we would give up the security of having cell phones for emergencies, but perhaps extremely simplified phones (several of which already exist but are not popular AFAICT) will abound.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#47

Post by eldavido »

elliekelly wrote: post #16
joekw wrote: post #2

I work in the fishing industry. Based on what I am seeing - fully autonomous fishing boats/cleaning/packing plants. You know how you have a single farmer handling hectares of farmland, its really looking like fisheries are going to go the same way easily in 10 years.

This is really concerning. The fishing industry is fairly manual but many fish populations are already pushed to the brink. I went to Antartica a few months ago and I was shocked at how many squid boats we could see at night on our way down. Hundreds and hundreds with huge bright lights to lure them to their machinery. Overfishing is a real problem to the point that the current situation is almost unsustainable. I wo…

Overfishing is a regulatory, not technical, problem.

Though I do think many of the hardest problems today are regulatory (climate, health, digital political advertising), not necessarily technical.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#48

Post by MalevolentFlip »

I hope I'm not a crackpot, but I have a really pessimistic outlook.

The increase in wealth disparity coupled with centralization of corporate power will cause a proportionally large increase in poverty. You'll either be fortunate enough to have a job (where your hours will rise, due to heavier competition - those at the top will say to hell with the research claiming productivity has an optimum with respect to hours devoted, just like we say to hell with the research claiming we're destroying the planet) or be forced to forage or pillage for your meals.

On another note, marriage rates will continue to decline, divorce rates will continue to rise. The "nuclear family" will therefore become increasingly rare (Why settle when you can swipe?). Suicide rates will increase. Maybe this keeps overpopulation in check. Maybe there will just be more single-parent "households". At any rate, I predict that there will be a much higher incidence of "many unrelated members of the same sex uncomfortably sharing a living space."

Those are both kind of high level, but as far as daily life goes, I think a "social credit system" will either exist globally or see increased adoption outside of the current canonical example(s).

I honestly hope I'm wrong. I hope that the internet dating paradigm doesn't ruin our species. I hope that we can maintain steady employment rates and keep the population at a healthy rate. That's just not what my first guess would be.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#49

Post by rootusrootus »

eldavido wrote: post #37
rootusrootus wrote: post #26

- Another lost decade of growth, with Generation X realizing their 401k won't actually grow enough to let them retire before 70. - Autonomous cars will continue to be a tantalizing but unrealized dream for all but a few niche markets. - AI will fade back into science fiction. Automation will continue to be the boogeyman that isn't quite here yet. - I think public support of the health insurance status quo will collap…

> I think public support of the health insurance status quo will collapse and Medicare for All will become an actual Thing. I'm almost certain about the first part (collapse) but much less certain about the second. The fundamental issue is affordability: we can't afford the health system we have. No matter who pays, the burden is going to be substantial. It's just a question of whether it's foisted onto shareholders…

I think scenario A is plausible ... but I live in a bubble. I frequently lament the completely broken insurance system I'm participating in now, where I have a high deductible plan that expects me to pay for everything up to $6K, while at the same time completely depriving me of the price information I need for that to work out in my favor.

The bubble I live in is that I've actually got enough money to pay the out-of-pocket costs if the insurance company screws me. It won't bankrupt me, at least not in the near term. But looking outside my reality, there are a huge number of Americans without anything even approaching that luxury. Especially younger generations. When I look at the numbers, I think your scenario B looks a bunch more realistic. Right now I just have political ideology, but I see a lot of people who have real skin in the game and I wonder how long we can maintain the status quo before those folks collectively realize just how numerous they are and how much change they can effect if they try.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#50

Post by dv_dt »

cimmanom wrote: post #9
dv_dt wrote: post #4

In ten years we will know one way or another if short term profits matter more to us than the long term prosperity of our civilization. And not just individuals, but how our overall system of collective government responds to individuals at a national and global level will be answered in the test.

You don’t think we already have the answer to that?

I think the future of this issue is still unwritten, and definitely not set in stone.
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