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Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

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Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#41

Post by Beltiras »

jeletonskelly wrote: post #2

I think you already see that younger generations don't prefer (or simply don't at all) using those social apps. Instead they use several social apps for specific things: snapchat for pics/text, whatsapp for text, vine for video, tinder/grinder for dating, instagram for social and pics, and more that I'm probably just not aware of because I'm 30. I think you're less likely to see a replacement and more likely to see t…

I can anecdotally confirm this and even place an age limit. My daughter (25) is an avid FB user while my son (17) is not. He has an account, just never uses FB except for the federated login. Seen this pattern among their friends too.

EDIT: Can anyone explain what is causing downvoting? Are anecdotes not valuable information?

Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#42

Post by rdancer »

spoiledtechie wrote: post #3
jeletonskelly wrote: post #2

I think you already see that younger generations don't prefer (or simply don't at all) using those social apps. Instead they use several social apps for specific things: snapchat for pics/text, whatsapp for text, vine for video, tinder/grinder for dating, instagram for social and pics, and more that I'm probably just not aware of because I'm 30. I think you're less likely to see a replacement and more likely to see t…

I use the book of faces specifically for keeping in touch with family from a distance. I think it will be the same for kids when they grow up. They move away and they will join facebook.

That's a very good point. Keeping the youths from poluting the platform with their inanity, and then engage them increasingly more, once they have matured enough to be part of newsfeeds may be what FB are shooting for?

Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#44

Post by dublinben »

rjaco31 wrote: post #26
jballanc wrote: post #11

When AOL first entered the market, you could only send E-Mail to other AOL users. Eventually, faced with the potential of users leaving their platform for more interoperable (if less full-featured) alternatives, AOL relented and made their email system a proper, standards-based utility. Now, granted that scenario is not a great example as email existed as a standard long before AOL came into existence, but I do think…

> If you think about it, the only thing that RSS/Atom was ever missing from becoming what Facebook/Twitter are today is a central aggregation point in the cloud. A smart startup [...] could potentially spell the death of proprietary timelines. I've got the feeling you underestimate how important this central aggregation point actually is. Imho I'd even say it's the paramount reason Facebook/Twitter are still the top…

When you can follow and interact with your friends/fans through a neutral aggregator regardless of what network they're on, what does it matter where most people are?

Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#45

Post by dublinben »

saberduck wrote: post #38
crazypyro wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook is still used heavily by younger people, especially in their 20's and late teens. I see Twitter falling a lot harder in popularity than Facebook. At the end of the day, "everyone" has a facebook. Most of my friends don't have a twitter and only use it when linked to it from Reddit or some other site. Twitter does seem to be gaining in the international recognition, probably still residual effect stemming fro…

Twitter is for me unique that it is used a lot by opensource developers and more broadly IT envagelists/figures. It's a goto resource for news related to frameworks, dev conferences,... LinkedIn aspires also in this area, but it's not relevant yet.

I find it highly ironic and counterproductive that so many "open source" developers and users live on a proprietary platform like Twitter. Free alternatives exist, but they need the critical mass that a community like that could bring.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#46

Post by brentm »

ebbv wrote: post #24
jballanc wrote: post #11

When AOL first entered the market, you could only send E-Mail to other AOL users. Eventually, faced with the potential of users leaving their platform for more interoperable (if less full-featured) alternatives, AOL relented and made their email system a proper, standards-based utility. Now, granted that scenario is not a great example as email existed as a standard long before AOL came into existence, but I do think…

AOL is definitely the best comparison. AOL had a 10 year run of dominance much like Facebook has had. But we're already in a world where kids today see Facebook as something for their parents. And I know more and more people who (like myself) deleted their Facebook account years ago and don't miss it. Facebook is headed toward irrelevance. It will probably always hang on like AOL and Yahoo still do. But it won't be t…

> Facebook is headed toward irrelevance.

If you only consider relevant company to be one that is creating a new and disrupt technology as their core product then sure they will have to fight daily not to become irrelevant. However, if you consider relevance to mean something that impacts the daily lives of many people, within the last 30 days they had their first 1B active user day. It's just very hard to displace that many people and so many of them have their lives (and memories) on Facebook in terms of the photos and connections. I am not extremely active on Facebook but having an account just seems like that otherwise missing world directory mixed with a personal life timeline which only increases in value as the years pass.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#47

Post by Beltiras »

arethuza wrote: post #28

Wouldn't a open standard for social networks be preferable to simply yet another centralized system - an SMTP for social networks?

You would need a big player with long-term vision to enable such a system. Google really can't do it, they have lost credibility in the space. We could see a surprising backbone for it like a massive cloud hoster (Thinking Cloudflare, Amazon, Rackspace).

Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#48

Post by brentm »

brentm wrote: post #46
ebbv wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AOL is definitely the best comparison. AOL had a 10 year run of dominance much like Facebook has had. But we're already in a world where kids today see Facebook as something for their parents. And I know more and more people who (like myself) deleted their Facebook account years ago and don't miss it. Facebook is headed toward irrelevance. It will probably always hang on like AOL and Yahoo still do. But it won't be t…

> Facebook is headed toward irrelevance. If you only consider relevant company to be one that is creating a new and disrupt technology as their core product then sure they will have to fight daily not to become irrelevant. However, if you consider relevance to mean something that impacts the daily lives of many people, within the last 30 days they had their first 1B active user day. It's just very hard to displace th…

And one other thing -- Maybe less younger people will sign up as time goes on (I don't disagree with the kids not wanting to be where their parents are theory of why FB will fall apart) but FB has shown the right instincts in acquiring (or attempting to acquire) the next social product of the moment or where the "kids are" so to speak. Everyone thought Instagram @ $1B was near insanity at the time and now it looks like the deal of the century in terms of what their estimated private valuation would be today ($37B+ in March [0]).

[0] http://www.businessinsider.com/instagram-valuation-2015-3

Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#49

Post by roymurdock »

jeletonskelly wrote: post #2

I think you already see that younger generations don't prefer (or simply don't at all) using those social apps. Instead they use several social apps for specific things: snapchat for pics/text, whatsapp for text, vine for video, tinder/grinder for dating, instagram for social and pics, and more that I'm probably just not aware of because I'm 30. I think you're less likely to see a replacement and more likely to see t…

I'm 22 and I've opted out of Facebook.

Not because my parents are on it (they are), but because it's not fun.

It used to be fun in high school (4-5 years ago) when you could have semi-private conversations with friends through wall posts, back before every status and picture was gamified by "likes", back before everything you ever posted was pinned like a dead moth on your timeline for everyone to see in perpetuity, back before it turned into a bunch of roosters strutting around, sticking their chests out and seeing who can crow the loudest.

Many of my friends share the same sentiments and are dropping off the Facebook grid in favor of Snapchat/direct messaging (Groupme, Whatsapp)/real-life hanging out.

That said, I don't think Facebook is going anywhere anytime soon:

> Facebook pages/events are essential for businesses and organizations. It's a large inconvenience not to have one if you're a business owner or a college student, especially in countries outside the US with less developed internet infrastructure and resources.

> Huge room for growth internationally. In some nascent markets, people even think that Facebook is the internet. [1]

> Facebook owns Whatsapp, Instagram, and Oculus Rift. Very strong portfolio of companies with a lot of brilliant people behind them.

[1] http://qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-ide...

Re: Ask HN: Do you think we'll see any Twitter/Facebook real-competitor?

#50

Post by ebbv »

brentm wrote: post #46
ebbv wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AOL is definitely the best comparison. AOL had a 10 year run of dominance much like Facebook has had. But we're already in a world where kids today see Facebook as something for their parents. And I know more and more people who (like myself) deleted their Facebook account years ago and don't miss it. Facebook is headed toward irrelevance. It will probably always hang on like AOL and Yahoo still do. But it won't be t…

> Facebook is headed toward irrelevance. If you only consider relevant company to be one that is creating a new and disrupt technology as their core product then sure they will have to fight daily not to become irrelevant. However, if you consider relevance to mean something that impacts the daily lives of many people, within the last 30 days they had their first 1B active user day. It's just very hard to displace th…

> within the last 30 days they had their first 1B active user day

I don't put too much stock in these types of numbers that companies release themselves. Facebook has long had issues with fake accounts created by bots, and has shown little interest in curbing that practice (since it inflates their numbers.)

Even if I accept the number at face value, I think that reflects mainly Facebook getting some penetration into other countries outside of the US. In the US it has already begun to decline, and while the Facebook "wave" may be at different points in other regions of the world, it is unlikely it will hold on for 10 years in those other countries given the increased relevance of other forms of social networking.

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